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Thursday, July 1, 2010

Scouting Report, Livan Hernandez (2nd time)

(1st pitch at Citi Field by the Mets)

I widely assume that every single baseball fan knows 35-year old Livan Hernandez, and everyone knows he throws slow, slower and slowest as his pitches these days. I'm not going to highlight his career stats or anything, as he has changed as a pitcher over the past 15 years and the data from his early starts against the Mets are meaningless. His career ERA is 4.39 and it hasn't been under 4.0 since 2005; his WHIP hasn't been lower than 1.5 since 2005 as well.

To start the year, in seven starts, 4-2 record with a 1.46 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. Someone explain that to me?

Looking at his pitch data, the only thing he has changed is that he is throwing more 2-seam fastballs than in the past. His fastball averages about 84 mph, change-up 78 mph, slider 79 mph and curve-ball (eephus) 65 mph.

Since he faced the Mets on May 19th (6 1/3 innings, 4 hits, 3 walks, 2 runs), his ERA now sits at 3.10, and a 1.28 WHIP. He has been getting very lucky, as his FIP is 4.40, or in other words, 'typical Livan'. He is striking out a meager 4 K/9, and allowing a unsustainable BABIP of .266 (up from .197 in mid-May), which is completely fluky. He also has a 80.3% (98% LOB% in Mid-May), which is still very high, as league average is around 70% (his career is 72%). Livan Hernandez has regressed over the past 6 weeks, but he still has more to go.

D Wright is hitting .444 with 4 home runs versus Livan over the past five years.

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