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Monday, July 19, 2010

Mets Scouting J Guthrie

According to Rotoworld, the Mets were at J Guthrie's start on Sunday.

Here is an excerpt of my scouting report of him when he faced the Mets on June 11th:

Guthrie has a compact delivery, throwing from a high 3/4s arm slot. He throws 2 and 4-seam fastballs in the 89-94 mph range (average of 92 mph, down from 94 in 2008) and gets good downward movement with the 2-seam, but his 4-seam is straight as an arrow. He also throws a sharp, late-breaking slider (84 mph), a tight curve (will only throw it once or twice a game) and a decent change (85 mph). Falls behind in the count often. His fastball and slider are his two best pitches, and he throws them a combined 86% of the time. This year he's increased the use of his slider to 26%.

This year he's made 12 starts and is 3-6, but he's pitched better than his record, as he has a 3.71 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. But he also has seen his K/9 decrease for the 5th year in a row (4.75). At least he doesn't walk many hitters ( < 2 W/9). He's been very lucky with an unsustainable .258 BAPIP, so his FIP is 4.41. He's gone six + innings in 11 of his 12 starts, and has allowed three runs or less in nine of his 12 starts. His last start he was a tough luck loser, as he went 7 1/3 versus Boston, allowing only two runs, on six base-runners, while striking out four.

He's making 3 million this year and could be on the trading block along with teammate K Millwood.
Since he faced the Mets on June 11th, he has one quality start (his last one versus Toronto) in six starts, and two of his last nine starts since June 1. His ERA is now 4.58, his K/9 is still terrible at 4.81.

I do not advocate trading for J Guthrie for a bag of sunflower seeds, let alone another human being.

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