Looking for a Great Gift?

Saturday, July 10, 2010

Scouting Report, RHP Tim Hudson

The 12-year major league veteran turns 35 on Wednesday, and is in the first year of a 3-year contract paying him 28 million dollars. He missed the majority of last year recovering from Tommy John Surgery, but made seven starts in September, going 2-1 with a 3.61 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. His career numbers are impressive, 156-82, with a 3.43 ERA and 1.25 WHIP, as well as being an All-star three times, including being selected for the game this year.  For his career, Hudson is 10-5 versus the Mets (16 starts, 105 innings), with a 3.77 ERA and 1.25 WHIP, and only 3.7 K/9. He faced the Mets last September and got the W, going six innings, allowed two runs on nine hits, while walking and striking out two.

Hudson is a six-pitch pitcher who works quickly and throws from the three quarters arm slot. He throws a hard sinking fastball 89-92 mph (averaging 91.2 mph, highest since 2004), a cutter 88 mph, a late-breaking slider (85 mph), a tight curve (76 mph), a show-me change early in the count (81 mph) and a splitter he uses for strikeouts (85 mph). Over his career his three best pitches have been his fastball, split and slider, but his split and slider have been below average this year (maybe the cause of his lack of strike outs). He throws first pitch fastball 72% of the time.

In 17 starts this year, Hudson is 8-4 with a 2.44 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. Those numbers are very deceiving, as he has been extremely lucky, with a trio of things working against him in the 2nd half. 1) His strike out rate has dropped to a pedestrian 4.57 K/9 (lowest in his career). 2) BAPIP is .234, completely unsustainable (career average is .286). 3) His strand rate is 84% (career average is 74%). Due to the combination of this three things, his FIP is 4.29; not as shiny as his 2.44 ERA. Hudson has continued to get a ton of ground balls due to his sinking fastball, but he's not getting swing and misses (6.8%, career is 9.3%) and throwing a career low 46% strikes. His last start versus Florida he was a tough luck loser, throwing eight innings, allowed only seven base-runners, but three runs, while striking out seven. He's gone 7+ innings in his last six starts.


  1. A few points about TODAY and the end of the 1st half of the season:

    1. Mets are playing ABOVE what everyone thought, they still need some pitching (HELLO FRONT OFFICE--Maine and Perez are not the answer)

    2. PAGAN--Has to be in the line up for the rest of the year...

    3. Beltran should not bat higher than 6th in his return. (at least for the first 2 weeks till he proves he can hit and play at this level again)

    4.Castillo?? DO you play him when he gets back or keep the young infield together...You can't keep him on the bench as a pinch hitter and he should bat 8th on his return...NOT 2nd if PAGAN is playing

    5. I don't know what Pedro Feliciano is doing in the majors but every time i watch him bat he grounds to second. is that that best role for him as a pinch hitter??

    6.Last question: How do so many METS take so long to heal from injuries?? Does the training and medical staff have a clue??


    2. Pagan
    8. 2B (Castillo or Tejada)
    9. Pitchers

    Francour as DEFENSIVE Replacement for Beltran.

    The day Francour plays and BAY SITS you move Beltran up one and bat Francour 6th.

    and the same when Beltran sits!!

    JERRY...realize where this team would be without PAGAN. Here is my idea Pagan plays 3 days, ok with different OF pos. each day and give the others every 3rd day off. With an OF in Citi Field, the legs need to be fresh. Pagan gets every 4th day off.

    Mets need to go get another starter or two, and I think another reliever than I feel they have a chance in this division.

  3. Thanks for the comments; I will be focusing more on the 2nd half line-up on Monday/Tuesday, and I will discuss some of these topics.

  4. Anthony...thank you...please keep the computer away from the Ocean Waves while working on this.