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Friday, July 2, 2010

Scouting Report, Luis Atilano (3rd time)

The New York Mets will face RHP Luis Atilano tonight, who is making his 14th major league start (3rd against the Mets). The 25 year-old Atilano is linked to the Mets, as he was the compensation pick (#35) for the Atlanta Braves back in 2003, as a result of the Mets signing Tom Glavine. When he was drafted out of Puerto Rico, the Braves saw a skinny pitcher with excellent movement on his fastball and expected that he would continue to progress and increase velocity as he matured. The Braves were hoping he would turn into a 93-94 mph pitcher but that failed to materialize, as he tops out at 88-89 mph. The Braves also loved his mound presence and competitiveness, making him the Braves highest ranked Puerto Rican player in the draft that year. However, he suffered an elbow injury in 2006, underwent Tommy John Surgery, and was traded shortly thereafter to the Nationals for Daryle Ward.

Atilano is a strike-thrower, but hardly a strike out pitcher (4.8 K/9 through eight minor league seasons, and 4.09 K/9 this year). He attacks the hitter, works fast, and keeps the ball down, resulting in a lot of ground balls. He rarely walked hitters in the minors (< 2 W/9 the last two years).

As I said earlier, he features a 88-89 tailing fastball (ton of movement), an above-average change-up (80 mph), and has added a slider to a below average curveball. The lack of the third pitch was what has prevented him from being a serious prospect in the past. Baseball America has him ranked as the Nationals 20th prospect coming into this year. He took the rotation spot of injured Jason Marquis.

So far this year, he has started 13 games, pitched 72 2/3 innings, and is 6-4 with a 4.33 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. When he faced the Mets on May 10th, he went 5 1/3 innings without allowing a run, let up five hits, walked two and struck out five. During his May 20th start, the Mets pounded him and he lasted only 4 1/3 inning, 9 hits, 3 walks and 7 runs, while striking out only one. The biggest improvement he's made over the past month is he has cut down his walks: he's only walked six walks in his past seven starts. Over his past three starts he has also become more of a fly-ball pitcher.

Back on May 20th I wrote he is getting lucky so far, as his FIP is 5.23; he needs to cut down on the walks in order to have sustainable success in the big leagues.Well he has cut down his walks, and now his FIP is 4.73. He still can't survive with the low K rate and the poor swing and miss rate (5.2%), but at least he isn't giving out free passes any more.

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