I've waited so long to do this scouting report because I widely assume that every single baseball fan knows 35-year old Livan Hernandez, and everyone knows his throws slow, slower and slowest as his pitches these days. I'm not going to highlight his career stats or anything, as he has changed as a pitcher over the past 15 years and the data from his early starts against the Mets are meaningless. His career ERA is 4.39 and it hasn't been under 4.0 since 2005; his WHIP hasn't been lower than 1.5 since 2005 as well.
So now I present you with his stats for this year: Seven starts, 4-2 record with a 1.46 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. Someone explain that to me?
Looking at his pitch data, the only thing he has changed is that he is throwing more 2-seam fastballs than in the past. His fastball averages about 84 mph, change-up 78 mph, slider 79 mph and curve-ball (eephus) 65 mph.
Digging deeper into his stats for this year, he has been getting very lucky, as his FIP is 4.90, or in other words, 'typical Livan'. He is striking out a career low 3.1 K/9, and allowing a completely unsustainable BABIP of .197 (average is .300), which is completely fluky. He also has a 98% LOB%, which is also unsustainable, as league average is around 70% (his career is 72%).
His two losses have come against the Colorado Rockies, against whom he's allowed four home runs in 14 innings. He has faced the Mets once this year on April 11th, and shut them out over seven innings, allowing five hits and walking three, while striking out one.
Livan Hernandez is due for a serious regression to the mean, and hopefully it starts tonight.