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Sunday, May 9, 2010

Scouting Report, RHP Tim Lincecum

Tim Lincecum =  Very, very good.
The End.

Wait, I already did that as my opening for Roy Halladay? darn. Well, this 25-year old superstar is freakishly good, and is throwing even better than Halladay this year. He already has two Cy Young Awards, and may be adding another one to his mantle this year if he keeps it up. Keep in mind this is only his 4th big league season.

He has a one-of-a kind delivery, in which he delivers straight over the top. He has an extremely long stride (even longer than Johan's), and he features three plus pitches. Even though he's lost 3 mph on his fastball since first taking the league by storm, he is now featuring a two-seamer 15% of the time (which has resulted in an increase in his ground ball rate to 50%) and he is averaging his fastball velocity around 91 (but his "rising" four-seam fastball still hits 94-95). He also throws a plus curve, and a plus-plus change, that probably is the best in baseball. He throws his change-up for a strike 75% of the time (league average is 60%. Hat Tip to Fangraphs). The craziest stat is that he gets a 34% swing and miss rate on his change-up (league average is 12%). He gets a ton of swing and misses outside of the strike zone, which helps to maintain his K/9 > 10, and his walk /9 < 3.

This year he has a 4-0 record with a  1.73 ERA and a minuscule 0.83 WHIP. He's gone 7+ innings in five of his six starts, and has eight walks to his 56 strikeouts (42 1/3 innings). He's struck out 10+ batters in three starts so far this year.

He is one of the top three pitchers in baseball, and will be very difficult to beat (if you couldn't figure that out from all those numbers above).


  1. Alright, Mets lose 6-5 in a strange game.

    Let's start with the obvious--Perez. Ugh. He isn't major league caliber right now. He had a 90 plus pitch count and couldn't get out of the 4th. He walked 7 guys (or something like that). He had no command at all. He is throwing 89 mph with no command and just looks lost. So I have to ask the simple question--how long before he gets sent down? They can't trade him (3 yrs 36 mill) and he certainly can't go to the pen (can't throw strikes).

    The other question is if not him, then who? The kid Gee down in the minors? RA Dickey? A bag of peanuts with salt? I think a change is coming. Mejia would be a good choice for a starter, but I still think he should develop his craft in the minors and not learn on the job for a team that appears to be a wild card contender (I can't say division yet because Philly is better).

    As for the rest of the game...if the Met pitching staff is going to walk 11 and hit 2 (that's 13 free bases) they have no shot. I know that Perez was most of it, but it all counts.

    D Wright is struggling right now and will be fine. He is too good not to be fine. The last time he was late on everything and missing was due to his trigger with his front leg so maybe that's the issue again. He just hit 4 HR's on the road trip and is now struggling at home. I am not overly concerned.

    Oh, and speaking of Wright--he got tossed today. Whatever on that. My issue is that if the game went extras, no bench players left to play. Manuel used everybody. Wright needs to know that and not get dumped and Manuel needs to have some protection for his team.

    Ike Davis is going to be a good hitter. I can say that because his 2 strike approach is big league quality. He had 2 hits to left field on 2 strike pitches today. He shortened up and hit what was given to him. Nice to see from a young player.

    The Mets won the series which is always a plus, but let the sweep get away. Perez has nothing and they find a way to battle back until Mejia gives one up to Rowand.

    This team has some heart and character. Now it is time to take care of the Nats...

  2. Oh, and another issue from the game. Mets gave up 2 runs in an inning on NO HITS!!! That can't happen.

  3. Thanks for your comments/recap Marc. Agree with your points on Oliver Perez not being a Major League Pitcher right now, and discussed who could replace him in my post today.