State of the Mets. June 3. Pitcher's Report Cards

The Mets are 1/3 of the way through the season and today I will review the Mets pitchers, comparing them to my pre-season expectations/predictions, and see who is over or under performing (Stats are up to date as of today). The hyper links are the spring training scouting reports/more in-depth previews.

Starters:
J Santana

• Actual: 12 GS, 78 1/3 innings, 4-2, 2.76 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 57 Ks, 24 Walks
• My Projections: 220 innings, 18 wins, 3.40 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 200 Ks, 50 Walks.
• Update: Outside of the one Phillies disaster of a start, Johan has been phenomenal. 8 out of his 12 starts he's allowed 1 run or less.
• Grade: A

M Pelfrey

• Actual: 11 starts, 71 2/3 innings, 8-1, 2.39 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 52 Ks, 28 Walks.
• My Projections: 200 innings, 12 wins, 4.50 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 110 Ks, 60 Walks
• Update: Been the 1A to Johan. 8 out of his 11 starts he's allowed 2 runs or less. Has pitched 7 innings or more 6 of his 11 starts. Also showed his bulldog mentality pitching in the 20 inning game and getting the win.
• Grade: A+

J Niese

• Actual: 8 GS, 41 1/3 innings, 1-2, 4.79 ERA, 1.79 WHIP, 33 Ks, 18 walks.
• My Projections: 140 innings, 4.35 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 110 Ks, 45 walks.
• Update: Currently on the DL with a hamstring strain, and is scheduled to pitch on Saturday. He has been very inconsistent with his curve-ball this year (which was a "plus-plus" pitch). He's only throwing his curve-ball 9.5% of the time, (16.5% last year, 24.7% 2008). Has only gone 6+ innings in 3 of his 8 starts.
• Grade: C

J Maine

• Actual: 9 GS, 39 2/3 innings, 1-3, 6.13 ERA, 1.82 WHIP, 39 Ks, 25 walks.
• My Projections: 120 innings, 9 wins, 4.50 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 95 Ks, 55 walks.
• Update: My projections are pretty good for innings and K's, but he's walking a ton more hitters than even my low expectations were. Went 6 innings in only 3 of his 9 starts. Currently on the DL with rotator cuff tendonitis and I wouldn't be surprised if he's thrown the last pitch of his Mets career (either trade or non-tendered)
• Grade: D-

O Perez

• Actual: 11 games, 7 GS, 38 2/3 innings, 6.28 ERA, 1.97 WHIP, 30 Ks, 33 Walks
• My Projections: 160 innings, 13 wins, 4.40 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 150 Ks, 80 Walks.
• Update: Completely useless. I have nothing else to add that hasn't already been said.
• Grade: Any Question? F

Bullpen:

F Rodriguez

• Actual: 25 games, 28 1/3 innings, 2-1, 10 saves (3 blown saves), 2.22 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 34 Ks, 11 Walks
• My Projections: 68 innings, 35 saves, 2.70 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 75 Ks, 30 Walks.
• Update: Looking at the numbers you would think it's vintage K-Rod, but watching him every day you get the same impression that Angels fans had for years: he's a heart attack waiting to happen. Although he has had 9 1,2,3 innings in his 25 games this year. He's getting lucky stranding runners (88%, career is 80%) and a low home run rate (2 home runs this year), despite becoming an even more pronounced fly-ball pitcher. His fastball velocity has dropped 2 MPH (90.8) from last year. Has thrown multiple innings 4 times this year.
• Grade: B

R Igarashi

• Actual: 12 games, 9 2/3 innings, 11.17 ERA, 2.07 WHIP, 4 Ks, 7 walks.
• My Projections: 50 innings, 4.10 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 45 Ks, 25 walks.
• Update: Igarashi missed over a month with a hamstring strain, and has been completely ineffective since returning. 6 innings before the injury and he had a 1.35 ERA. 3 2/3 innings since returning (5 appearance), 11 earned runs, good for a 27 ERA.
• Grade: Pre-injury: A. Post-Injury: F. Total: C-

 P Feliciano

• Actual: 30 games, 20 2/3 innings 1-2, 2.18 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, 18 Ks, 13 walks.
• My Projections: I projected him as a lefty specialist and hence didn't give him WHIP/ERA projections
• Update: Righties are hitting .293 against him this year, and his walk rate has ballooned to 5.66 W/9 (last year was 2.73). Righties have a .442 OBP this year. He still is just a left-handed specialist Mr. Manuel.
• Grade: B+, would be an A if only used against lefties.

F Nieve

• Actual: 28 games (1 GS), 25 innings, 1-3, 1.56 WHIP, 6.48 ERA, 22 Ks, 19 BB
• My Projections: 60 innings, 1.55 WHIP, 4.80 ERA, 50Ks, 30 BB
• Update: On May 12th his ERA was 3.32. He was also on pace to appear in 100+ games and warmed up virtually every single night (keep in mind he was a starter before this year). He has a 6.8 W/9 rate (Oliver Perez territory) and has served up 5 HR already, which plagued him in his Astros days (06 & 08).
• Grade: C. His performance would warrant a lower grade, but I can't fault him for the massive abuse Jerry Manuel put on his arm.

Additional Pitchers: Here are a list of guys I didn't have full scouting report/projections for at the beginning of the year:

H Takahashi

• Actual: 18 games (3 GS), 4-2, 3.21 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 45 Ks, 17 walks
• Update: He has been very effective until his last start versus San Diego when they were patient and let up 6 runs in 4 innings. He's exceeded the expectations (wasn't expected to make the team out of spring training).
• Grade: A-

RA Dickey

• Actual: 3 GS, 2-0, 19 innings, 2.84 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, 12 Ks, 7 walks.
• Update: He's been very effective as a spot-starter and has very good control for a knuckle-baller. Has gone at least 6 innings in each of his 3 starts
• Grade: A-

 J Mejia - (I never did a formal scouting report on Mejia because it seemed like I wrote about him every day of spring training, including March 25, March 12 and March 6. Couple of links in there to  Metsminorleagueblog.com as well)

• Actual: 24 games, 23 innings, 0-2, 3.13 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, 16 Ks, 13 walks.
• Update: He has a walk rate above 5 and is throwing his fastball > 78% of the time, while on pace to throw 69 innings (last year he threw 94 innings). Throws a 1st pitch strike only 48% (major league average is 58%). Righties are hitting .311 against him. When are they going to send him down so he can actually improve and develop? We thought it was going to happen before the Yankees series but we are still waiting.
• Grade: B- (mainly because of his age of lack of minor league experience)

R Valdes

• Actual: 17 games, 28 2/3 innings, 2-2, 5.34 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 33 Ks, 13 walks.
• Update: Had a 2.86 ERA on May 25th, but imploded on May 31st, not recording an out and allowed 5 base runners, 4 of which scored. He's been lights out at Citi Field (.77 ERA) and has saved the Mets bullpen numerous times; 8 of his outings have been 2+ innings, 4 of them 3+ innings. Not bad for a pitcher on loan from the Mexican league. Also imploded June 2nd and let up a walk-off grand slam.
• Grade: C (based on his last two disasters)

 E Dessens

• Actual: 4 games, 4 1/3 innings, 0-1, 2.08 ERA, .69 WHIP, 1 K, 0 walks.
• Update: The 39-year old veteran was just called up on May 21st and was immediately put into a high leverage game versus the Yankees, perfect utilization of the 12th pitcher on the roster. In his next two appearances versus the Brewers, he threw 3 scoreless innings.Now it appears like Jerry thinks he is the 8th inning solution. Interesting...
• Grade: Incomplete

Overall grade for the team at the 1/3 pole: B. They are pretty much meeting expectations of being around .500- 85 win team. They are one winning streak away from getting to the A- mark, but also one losing streak away from getting a C.