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Monday, June 14, 2010

Off-Day Observations/Reading from the Weekend

Here is a summary post of things I saw over the weekend, and an off-day is a perfect time to catch up on that.

  • Eno Sarris of Fangraphs wrote a great post re: Johan and his gradual decline since 2006. The article is a pay article (insider only) on ESPN's TMI Blog, but here is one chart that sums everything up.
A dwindling strikeout rate should concern the Mets and their fans.

Year K/9 BB/9 GB% SwStr% FB MPH xFIP

2006 9.44 1.81 40.60% 13.20% 93.1 3.12

2007 9.66 2.14 38.00% 14.00% 91.7 3.43

2008 7.91 2.42 41.20% 11.40% 91.2 3.66

2009 7.88 2.48 35.70% 11.30% 90.5 4.13

2010 6.55 2.76 35.80% 9.40% 89.2 4.49

He has the 8th lowest ground-ball rate in the majors this year, a decrease in K/9 and an increase in BB/9; not a good trifecta.
  • John Sickels has a great review of all the Mets draft picks, and here is the overall view
    • The Mets are usually conservative in the draft. I rated Harvey as a late first round talent, and since he won't be cheap to sign, it is a bit of an unusual selection for the Mets, granted his upside is high. Forsythe, dan Dekker, and Peavey are OK picks but not spectacular, all possible role players. Vaughn is a high-risk/high-reward player but I like him in the fourth round; he could be very good if he can cut back on the strikeouts a bit. Picks seven through ten are actually pretty interesting: four live arms that are fairly raw but could be very good if refined properly. Overall, this class is another so-so outing for a team with the financial resources to make a much bigger splash.
      My Take: The Mets made a "splash" in the first round, but then continued with the trademark of Minaya's years as GM and were very conservative, compared to the Red Sox or Rays who always took guys with higher upside, even if there was a higher cost/chance they won't sign them.
  • John Maine threw four scoreless innings against the Trenton Thunder, allowing two walks and one hit, while striking out five. The plan is for one or maybe two rehab starts then try to return to the Mets. According to multiple sources, he was still only throwing 87-88 mph, and here is a money quote from Maine.
    • “The guys were saying last night that it’s a high mound here, but you can’t really tell until you get out there,” Maine said after his 63-pitch, four-inning outing on a humid 83-degree afternoon. “That’s why I walked the first guy. It took me five pitches to get used to it.”
      My Take: Unreal that he used the mound height as an excuse. I'm sick of his act...

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