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Saturday, June 26, 2010

Scouting Report, RHP Carl Pavano

The 34-year old CT native is in his 12th major league season, and he's 88-84 for his career. He sports a 4.39 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. He's pitching in his 5th organization (Montreal, Florida, NYY, Cleveland and now Minnesota), and has made 26 starts for the Twins. In case you were wondering, he made 26 starts during his notorious four-year contract with the Yankees. His career year was 2004 with the Marlins when he was an all-star and finished 6th in the Cy Young Voting.  He's started 19 games against the Mets and is 7-7 with a 3.60 ERA, but that doesn't hold much relevance against this current Mets team.

He has earned the reputation as a "fragile starter", who throws from a 3/4s arm slot and has a slight pause in his delivery. He throws an 88-92 mph fastball which has good movement, a slider that has big downward movement (83 mph), and a plus change (80 mph). His fastball got hammered last year, but it has been an above average pitch this year, along with his great change. He gets a ton of swings out of the strike zone (36%), which is highest in the majors, and like most Twins pitchers, throws first pitch strikes (66%).

He's made 14 starts this year and is 8-6, with a 3.64 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. He's benefiting from a low, unsustainable BAPIP (.267), but is helping himself by minimizing walks 1.31 W/9. He's only striking out 5.1 K/9. He's gone 7+ innings in six straight starts. In his last start, he threw a complete game versus the Phillies, allowing only four hits and one earned run.

Summary: He is earning only "7 million this year" and is giving the Twins more value than that, but he has a low margin for error. He is a 12-year veteran and is a useful mid-rotation pitcher for the Twins.

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