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Saturday, August 14, 2010

Scouting Report Doc Halladay

The Mets faced Halladay last Sunday (7 innings, 5 runs, 9 hits but 10 k's), so nothing has really changed, except an article on him and his new change-up, which was over at fangraphs which you can read here.

He is now throwing it more as a split finger, and here is the result:

The pitch is wildly more successful, getting 19% swinging strikes per pitch in 2010 compared to 6% in 2009-2007 (pitchf/x years). It also gets more ground balls (57% GB/BIP versus 55%) and a lower slugging on contact ( 0.452 bases/contact versus 0.505). Looking at Halladay’s pitch-count splits, he uses the pitch often when he is ahead in the count. So it looks like he has developed a second out pitch — along with his curve — to put batters away when he is ahead in the count.

The Mets faced Harry Leroy on May 1st and got shut out, with only 4 base-runners reaching.

Roy Halladay = Very, very good.
The End.

You want more of a scouting report than that? Ok, ok. I'll let you know why he will be earning 20 million dollars a year for the next three years.

He is a workhorse, pitching over 220 innings each of the last four years. He strikes out > 7.5 K/9, and walks < 1.5 W/9, for a K/W ratio over 5 the past two years, one of the best in the major leagues  He doesn't allow home runs (< 1 HR/9), and his highest WHIP since 2005 was 1.24. He is a ground-ball pitcher and attacks the hitters with strikes, making it difficult to run up his pitch count. Easily leads baseball in complete games over the past 5 years.

His stuff: nasty. Throws 92-94 mph fastball, a filthy 91-92 mph cutter, a plus curve-ball that he throws around 78 mph, and mixes in an 83-84 mph change-up. He uses his fastball or cutter 70% of the time, and the curve or change the remaining 30%. He's increased the use of his change this year from 4 to 12%. All four of his pitches are plus this year. He uses his cutter the most with 2 strikes, but will throw any of his four pitches.

This year he had rolled off four outstanding starts in a row, and people were wondering if he could win 30 games. Well, he showed his was human last start versus the Giants, allowing 5 runs and 10 hits in 7 innings. But even after that subpar outing, his ERA stands at a stout 1.80, and his WHIP is .98.

UPDATE August 8th: Doc is 13-8 with a 2.17 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 23 starts (178 innings). He's striking out 8 per 9 innings, and walking 1 per 9 innings. He's allowed 1 run or less in 5 of his last 6 starts. He's thrown less than 7 innings only twice in the past 2 months (12 starts).

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