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Tuesday, December 15, 2009

Updated Off-Season Plan/Response to DCB's questions

I'll address each of these 1) Other blogs wanted guys like Adam Kennedy, but in reality his fielding percentage was worst, at 2B, than Castillo's last year and it's difficult to argue against Luis' offensive output last year. Fielding % means very little for a 2nd baseman. It still boils down to the fact that we'd have to eat so much of Luis' contract that it isn't cost effective to do so. 2) What do you expect out of Fernando Martinez this year? He's 21 years old. Let's see what some player comps are for current players in their 1st full year in the big leagues, then try to see what a reasonable expectation is for F-Mart. (/ stats are batting average/on base %/slugging %) Carlos Beltran's 1st full year stats (22 years old). 293/337/454 . 27 sb, 8 cs (since then he's been the best at SB %). Andrew McCutchen 286/365/471. 108 games 23 years old Colby Rasmus 251/307/407. 147 games 23 years old Dexter Fowler 266/363/406. 134 games. 23 years old Jacoby Ellsbury 297/350/414. career numbers 1st 2 years (25-26 years old) My expectations for Fernando Martinez, at 21 years old are: 265/350/410. So similar power to Dexter Fowler and J Ellsbury (= occassional pop, but not a slugger). I'm shocked that Rasmus' slugging % is so low, and again shows not to give up on young kids. Rasmus is going to be a future star, but if you take those numbers for face value, you would think he's the next Jeff Francoeur (280/329/423 last year) 3) Do you believe we'll carry three catchers this year? Yes, for reasons only Omar will understand. They rationed it last year because they liked Ramon Castro's bat and wanted to use him as a pinch hitter. Coste/Thole/whoever else they sign are not good enough to warrant to keep as a pinch hitter, so the 3rd catcher would be a wasted roster spot. 4) Would you offer Sheets a second year to bring his asking price down? There is no reason to believe that Sheets wants to sign for a second year. From my understanding is that he wants a one year deal, show he is healthy, then become a free agent next year and search for a long term contract. The 2nd year may be more beneficial to Erik Bedard, who will not be ready to pitch on opening day. Not that I'm advocating signing Bedard, but if it could be a 1 year 5 million dollar base contract with incentives, I'd do it and see if he gives us 130 quality innings. 5) Chien-Ming Wang - ground ball pitcher in Citi Field? It's a major warning sign that the Yankees didn't tender him a contract. The few million dollars is petty cash to the Yankees, and they may not have confidence that he will ever be completely healthy. In theory, Wang would be a good addition to the Mets rotation (switching leagues etc), but since he doesn't miss many bats, I think his upside would be a #3 pitcher. For the right price (3-4 million) I would sign him to compete for the back end of the rotation. So given the current market of starting pitchers, I'd still sign Sheets to be the number 2 pitcher we need (and the only one left on the market), then take a gamble on Wang/Bedard I'd be ok with that. 6) Do you give Bay more per year, add a fifth year to get him, or abstain all together? Before this year, everyone was saying Boston wouldn't sign Bay for more than 3 years. Now everyone is saying 4 is a definite and you need to go 5 years to get him. I WOULD NOT GIVE HIM A 5 YEAR DEAL. As it is, I think you'd be eating a lot of money that 4th year (36 years old, for a guy who has shoulder and knee surgery). But I also wouldn't touch Holliday for 8 years with a 10 foot pole. Both of those guys are going to be bad contracts. So to summarize, this is an updated plan based on the current free agents/non-tenders. 1) Sign Ben Sheets for 1 year deal, 8 million up to 10 million if that's the market. 2) Sign Bedard/Wang to a 1 year incentive laden deal, with an option for 2nd if possible (but doesn't need to be a deal-breaker) 3) Allow F-Mart to grow and patrol Left Field, and sign Ryan Garko as a utility player to help out D Murphy and F Martinez against tough lefties. Garko is just 29 and has a career .313/.392/.495 line against left-handers. And for those counting at home, that would still come in below the cost of 1 year of Jason Bay Keep the comments coming, and Let's Go Mets. Please Omar don't make a "splash"

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