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Sunday, March 13, 2011

Scouting Report Johan Santana

Johan Santana- #57
32 years old today (Happy Birthday Johan!)
11th Major League Season
6'0" 210 pounds
Bats L/Throws L

For 2010 scouting report, click here
The Good: Short arm action and delivers from a three-quarter arm slot. Excellent movement on his fastball which is now 89-90 mph (averaged 89.4 last year, down from 93 in 2006). Has one of the best change-ups in baseball (79 mph), and has a solid slider (82 mph). Very athletic and his fun personality is contagious. He threw first pitch strikes 66% of the time last year. He minimizes walks (2.5 BB/9), and keeps the ball in the yard, especially in the cavernous Citi Field. He had a shiny 2.98 ERA in 2010.

The Bad: Had season-ending shoulder surgery on September 14th; Johan had elbow surgery in September 2009 (2nd time he's had this "clean up" surgery), and this was his 3rd straight year he's had surgery. His K/9 rates have dropped every year from 2004 (10.46 to 7.88 in 2009, to a pedestrian 6.5 K/9). His swing and miss rate has also steadily dropped, from 14% in 2007 to a career low 9.2% (league average is 8.5%), which is not promising. He has turned into a fly ball pitcher, which is ok in Citi Field, but presents a problem on the road, where he let up 13 home runs last year in 110 innings (3 home runs in 89 innings at Citi).

Role: Johan he is the most exciting pitcher on the Mets, and is a treat to watch every single time he is on the mound. He is the clear #1 pitcher on the staff when healthy, but he is just a shell of what he was just a few short years ago, and he is still owed at least 77.5 million over the next 3 years (depending on the buyout of the 2014 season). The word from the Mets is that they expect him back late June/early July; I'd put the target more during August, as my projected innings below will indicate.
2010 Mets Opening Day
My Projected Stats: 60 innings, 10 starts, 3.70 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 55 Ks, 30 Walks.

Last two pitching scouting reports will be posted today: Josh Stinson and Chris Young

2011 Scouting Reports:
Francisco Rodriguez
Armando Rodriguez
Oliver Perez
Mike Pelfrey
Bobby Parnell
Jon Niese
Pat Misch
Jenrry Mejia
Dillon Gee
R.A. Dickey
D.J. Carrasco
Chris Capuano
Taylor Buchholz
Pedro Beato
Manuel Alvarez
Manny Acosta

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