Scouting Report, RHP Justin Masterson

The 25-year old RHP was a 2nd round pick of the Red Sox in 2006. He made his major league debut in 2008 and was then traded to the Indians in a package for Victor Martinez in 2009. He is an extreme ground-ball pitcher, and has a career 4.15 ERA and 1.43 WHIP, but with a good strike out rate (7.8 K/9). In addition to his extreme ground ball rates, he has an outrageous platoon split; Right-handed hitters only hit .205 and slug .302 for his career, but lefties destroy him, hitting .306 and slug .456, with an OBP of .406. He faced the Mets once last year in relief, and pitched three effective innings, allowing one run, only three hits and one walk.

He has a big, strong body (6'6", 250 pounds), has a high leg kick and throws from a long side-arm slot. He throws a heavy sinking fastball (89-92 mph), a sweeping slider (83 mph) and mixes in an occasional change-up (84 mph). He is slow to the plate. He throws his fastball 80% of the time (45% 2-seemer), and a plus slider 18% of the time. This year hitters are 9-48 (.188) off of his slider.

This year he's 2-5, but is coming off a complete game shut-out versus his former team and got 16 ground ball outs. He has a 4.74 ERA and a 1.64 WHIP due to an extremely high walk rate (4.6 W/9). He is still striking out a ton of hitters ( > 8 K/9) and has a 64% ground-ball rate, which is among the best in the majors. Six of his 12 starts he's allowed two runs or less, but has also allowed five runs or more three times.

He is a ground-ball machine who dominates right-handed hitters, but struggles versus lefties. The Mets need to load the line-up with lefties, aka C Carter, J Feliciano, A Cora.

Off-Day Observations/Reading from the Weekend

Here is a summary post of things I saw over the weekend, and an off-day is a perfect time to catch up on that.

• Eno Sarris of Fangraphs wrote a great post re: Johan and his gradual decline since 2006. The article is a pay article (insider only) on ESPN's TMI Blog, but here is one chart that sums everything up.

A dwindling strikeout rate should concern the Mets and their fans.

 

Year K/9 BB/9 GB% SwStr% FB MPH xFIP

 

2006 9.44 1.81 40.60% 13.20% 93.1 3.12

2007 9.66 2.14 38.00% 14.00% 91.7 3.43

2008 7.91 2.42 41.20% 11.40% 91.2 3.66

2009 7.88 2.48 35.70% 11.30% 90.5 4.13

2010 6.55 2.76 35.80% 9.40% 89.2 4.49

 

He has the 8th lowest ground-ball rate in the majors this year, a decrease in K/9 and an increase in BB/9; not a good trifecta.
  

• John Sickels has a great review of all the Mets draft picks, and here is the overall view

• The Mets are usually conservative in the draft. I rated Harvey as a late first round talent, and since he won't be cheap to sign, it is a bit of an unusual selection for the Mets, granted his upside is high. Forsythe, dan Dekker, and Peavey are OK picks but not spectacular, all possible role players. Vaughn is a high-risk/high-reward player but I like him in the fourth round; he could be very good if he can cut back on the strikeouts a bit. Picks seven through ten are actually pretty interesting: four live arms that are fairly raw but could be very good if refined properly. Overall, this class is another so-so outing for a team with the financial resources to make a much bigger splash.

  My Take: The Mets made a "splash" in the first round, but then continued with the trademark of Minaya's years as GM and were very conservative, compared to the Red Sox or Rays who always took guys with higher upside, even if there was a higher cost/chance they won't sign them.
• John Maine threw four scoreless innings against the Trenton Thunder, allowing two walks and one hit, while striking out five. The plan is for one or maybe two rehab starts then try to return to the Mets. According to multiple sources, he was still only throwing 87-88 mph, and here is a money quote from Maine.

• “The guys were saying last night that it’s a high mound here, but you can’t really tell until you get out there,” Maine said after his 63-pitch, four-inning outing on a humid 83-degree afternoon. “That’s why I walked the first guy. It took me five pitches to get used to it.”

  My Take: Unreal that he used the mound height as an excuse. I'm sick of his act...

Another "BROOM BROOM SWEEEEEP!"

The Mets took care of business, and swept the hapless Orioles (17-46) in a three-game series. This is the first road sweep since September 2008, as the Mets won 11-4.

• The Mets had 18 hits. 18 hits. 11 of which were of of K Millwood
• Anyone still want him at the trading deadline? Just sayin'
• D Wright hit two home runs and a double, finishing 3-5 and raised his average to .286. 
•  J Bay was 4-4 with a home run. He raised his average to .284. 
• "The Animal is out of the cage", as Chris Carter hit a 3-run HR in the 1st inning. 
• A Cora had a nice game, going 3-4 with 2 RBIs. 
• Pelfrey wasn't at the top of his game, throwing 101 pitches in 6 innings, allowing 9 hits, 3 walks and 3 runs, while striking out one. 
• Pelfrey improved to 9-1 and is almost a lock for the All-Star team at this point
• Igarashi and Valdes both contributed two perfect innings.

The Mets (35-28) have a much deserved day off, and travel to Cleveland (25-37) for a 3-game set starting on Tuesday.  Let's hope they win another road series, and they even have a chance for another sweep.

Game 63: Mets @ Orioles

Here is the line-up that will face veteran Righty Kevin Millwood:

J Reyes SS
A Pagan CF
D Wright 3B
I Davis 1B
J Bay LF
C Carter DH
J Feliciano RF
A Cora 2B
H Blanco C

M Pelfrey P

My Prediction: Big Pelf continues his big year and goes another 7+ innings, carrying the Mets to another victory and a rare road series SWEEP. Mets win 5-2

As always, LETS' GO METS!

Scouting Report, RHP Kevin Millwood

I saw Millwood earlier this year when I went to the Twins game; I will try to be as objective as possible on this scouting report, but I will say this to start: He turns into Steve Traschel, aka "The Human Rain Delay", whenever there were runners on base. And as you will see, that is often.

This 14-year major league veteran is 35-years old and was drafted in the 11th round in 1993 by the Braves. He spent 6 years with the Braves, 2 with the Phillies, 1 with the Indians, 4 with the Rangers, and this is his first year with the Orioles. For his career, he's 155-128, with a 4.05 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. He's started 29+ games 10 out of the last 12 years. He is similar to Jon Garland "league-average inning eater". But he is making 12 million dollars this year, and is on the staff to mentor the rest of the young Orioles starters. He's started 20 games against the Mets (most of them early in his career with the Braves), and is 8-5 with a 3.36 ERA and 1.19 WHIP.

He has a small wind-up and throws straight over-the-top. He commands an 88-91 mph to both sides of the plate; he cuts in on lefties and away from righties. He throws a short-late breaking slider and a tight curve any time in the count. He's decreased the use of his fastball to 59% (especially his 4-seam and increased his 2-seam) and increased his slider to 24%. His curve-ball is slow, and averages 72 mph. His best pitch this year has been his change-up and his curve-ball and slider have been pounded this year.

So far this year he's 0-7 with a 4.64 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. He's a fly-ball pitcher who has been victimized by a ton of home runs (16 in 85 innings), which is the highest rate of his career. He's striking out 7.3/9 (best since 2004) and only 2.7 W/9. He's let up six earned runs in each of his last two starts, including two home runs in each of those games (both versus the Yankees). He's allowed two runs or less in three of his 13 starts this year.

He will be on the trade market at the end of July, and I know some Mets fans are clamoring for him already, but I am/will not be one of them

Another W, Mets are now 34-28

Takahashi threw 7 quality innings allowing only one run, and that was more than the Mets needed, as both Reyes and Frenchy hit HRs off of Matusz. Final score 3-1. The Mets win back to back road games for the first time since last July.

Matusz threw 8 innings, only allowing five hits (no walks), but allowed the two home runs and three runs.

Mets are in a great position to sweep the series tomorrow, Pelfrey vs Millwood, 1:10 PM.

Game 62: Mets @ Orioles

Here is the line-up that will face LHP Brian Matusz:

J Reyes SS
A Pagan CF
D Wright DH
I Davis 1B
J Bay LF
F Tatis 3B
R Barajas C
J Francoeur RF
R Tejada 2B

H Takahashi P

My prediction: Takahahsi disappoints again and the Mets need to re-consider his role in the starting rotation; the Mets bats get shut down by Matusz. It'll be a 5-1 loss but it won't even feel that close.

Prove me wrong...LET'S GO METS!

Thoughts of the Day, June 12

• The Mets currently sit in 2nd place, 1 1/2 games back of the Braves

Re-read that statement again.

Even though the Mets have a lot of flaws, but as of June 12th, we are within 2 games of winning the division, due to a 24-10 record at home.

•  C Beltran played three innings in center field yesterday in Extended Spring Training.
• No one is reporting if the hitters were told not to hit it to him or not, but it is a positive sign
• My target for his return is still the all-star break, or a month from now

Scouting Report, LHP Brian Matusz

This 23 year old lefty was ranked #17 on the top 100 prospect list coming into this year. "His biggest strength is a lack of weaknesses, as he has four offerings that rate as average or above and the ability to throw any of them for strikes." - Baseball Prospectus 2010. Scouts also went on to say that this spring he was the best pitcher they had seen, not prospect, but best pitcher.

He was the 1st pitcher taken in the 2008 draft (4th overall) and was signed to a major league contract worth 3.47 million. He went from pitching at the University of San Diego to Yankee Stadium in a year. On top of his already mentioned repertoire, his best trait may be his make-up. Team officials raved last year how he made adjustments mid-game and is described as a winner.  In the minors before being called up last year, he was 11-2 with a 1.91 ERA in 19 starts. He had 121 k's in 113 innings, and only 32 walks. He made eight starts for the O's last year and went 5-2 with a 4.63 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. He struck out 7.6/9 and walked < 2.9/9. His best comp is David Price.

He sits in the low 90s with his fastball, but can touch 95, and complements it with both a curve and a slider, as well as an outstanding change-up that is a true swing-and-miss pitch (which is the best in the Orioles system). He has increased his use of his fastball this year to 67% and decreased his slider to 7%.

So far this year he's shown signs of brilliance (7 shutout innings versus the Indians), but he's also struggled as he's become a drastic fly-ball pitcher that has been a problem in Camden Yards (7 HRs in 67 innings). He has a 2-6 record in 12 starts this year, with a 5.10 ERA and 1.58 WHIP. Believe me, he is a better pitcher than that stat line. He has been extremely unlucky with a .353 BAPIP which is due for a serious regression, as well as a low strand rate (67%). He still is striking out > 7.6/9 and walking 3.6/9 (slight increase from last year). His biggest problem has been his low ground-ball rate (32% vs 48% in the minors). The other problem is that last year he threw his curve for a strike 58% and had a swing and miss rate of 8.3 % (league average); this year it's only a strike 52% of the time, and the whiff rate is 6.1%. He has however increased his use of his change-up this year, and it has an outstanding whiff rate of 21%.

This guy is a future #1 starter, and just like I said with Mat Latos, he is still inconsistent, but on any given day, he can dominate. Hopefully today isn't one of those days.

Mets win Series Opener 5-1

Chris "The Animal" Carter hits his 1st major league home run, a 3-run shot, and RA Dickey struck out eight over seven innings, allowing only one run.  The Mets took care of business tonight.

Takahashi vs Matusz tomorrow 7:10 PM.

Game 61: Mets (32-28) @ Orioles (17-43)

Here is the line-up that will face and score some runs off of RHP J Guthrie:

J Reyes SS
A Pagan CF
D Wright 3B
I Davis 1B
J Bay LF
C Carter DH
R Barajas C
J Francoeur RF
R Tejada 2B

RA Dickey P

My Prediction: Mets score 3 runs off of Guthrie in 6 innings and add a couple insurance runs against their bullpen to hold on and win 5-4.

LET'S GO METS!

Scouting Report, RHP Jeremy Guthrie

The 31-year old right-hander was drafted in the 1st round of the 2002 draft out of Stanford University by the Cleveland Indians and made his major league debut in 2004. He was drafted out of high school by the Mets in 1997, but did not sign. He was claimed off of waivers in 2007 by the Orioles after making only one start for the Indians. He made 89 starts for the Orioles between 2007-09, and had sub-3.70 ERAs in 07 and 08, making the Orioles think they had an "ace" for their young staff. But last year Guthrie got hit very hard, and had an ERA over 5. It all stems back to September of 2008 when Guthrie missed most of September with shoulder fatigue or impingement (depending on who you believe), and his fastball went from a plus pitch to plain bad, and that caused his change-up to be ineffective as well. He led the league both in homers allowed and losses. For his career he is 30-40 with a 4.20 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. He's started once against the Mets last June and took the loss, throwing 6 1/3 innings, allowing eight base runners, five runs (only three earned), while striking out four.

Guthrie has a compact delivery, throwing from a high 3/4s arm slot. He throws 2 and 4-seam fastballs in the 89-94 mph range (average of 92 mph, down from 94 in 2008) and gets good downward movement with the 2-seam, but his 4-seam is straight as an arrow. He also throws a sharp, late-breaking slider (84 mph), a tight curve (will only throw it once or twice a game) and a decent change (85 mph). Falls behind in the count often. His fastball and slider are his two best pitches, and he throws them a combined 86% of the time. This year he's increased the use of his slider to 26%.

This year he's made 12 starts and is 3-6, but he's pitched better than his record, as he has a 3.71 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. But he also has seen his K/9 decrease for the 5th year in a row (4.75). At least he doesn't walk many hitters ( < 2 W/9). He's been very lucky with an unsustainable .258 BAPIP, so his FIP is 4.41. He's gone six + innings in 11 of his 12 starts, and has allowed three runs or less in nine of his 12 starts. His last start he was a tough luck loser, as he went 7 1/3 versus Boston, allowing only two runs, on six base-runners, while striking out four.

He's making 3 million this year and could be on the trading block along with teammate K Millwood.

What a Pitching Performance. Mets win 3-0

Mets win 3-0, but the bigger story is Jon Niese. Only one base-runner allowed. He retired the final 21 hitters in a row. 108 pitches, 76 for strikes. He featured his curve ball more than usual, especially utilizing it as the first pitch of the at-bat numerous times.

The Mets completed a 5-1 home-stand and another "live interview" at Citi Field, and another pie in the face from A Pagan.

3 game series at Baltimore starts tomorrow night. RA Dickey vs J Guthrie, 7:10 PM

Game 60 Mets vs Padres

Here is the Mets line-up that will try to win the series and finish the homestand 5-1, while facing RHP Jon Garland:

J Reyes SS
J Feliciano CF
D Wright 3B
I Davis 1B
C Carter LF (1st start since May 18th)
R Barajas C
J Francoeur RF
R Tejada 2B
J Niese P

My Prediction: The Mets get a boast of energy from Feliciano (1st major league start) and C Carter, and they win 5-2.

As always, LET'S GO METS!

Scouting Report, RHP Jon Garland

The 30-year old RHP was a 1st round draft pick in 1997 by the Cubs and has been in the majors since 2000, has made 30+ starts every year since 2002, and averaged 208 innings a year. He’s one of three pitchers (J Vasquez and M Buehrle) that has thrown 190+ innings every year since 2002. He has signed two one-year deals the past two off-seasons; in 2008 he signed a one year deal with Arizona for 7.25 million. This off-season he signed for 5.3 million with the Padres. He was dealt to the Dodgers for the stretch run, made six starts and had a 2.72 ERA for them last September. For his career, he is 123-105, with a 4.35 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. He is considered a “league-average-innings-eater”. His number one comp is Kyle Lohse. He’s started against the Mets three times, threw 21 innings and is 1-0 with a 2.57 ERA, and 1.19 WHIP. Two of those starts were last year, one was a CG and ten days later he threw six innings with two earned runs.

He throws a fastball (90 mph) 59% of the time, both two and four-seam, a slider (84 mph), cutter (20% of time), an occasional curve-ball (76 mph) and an improved change-up (80 mph). Manager Bud Black credits his change-up for his improvement this year, but as detailed below, he's decreased the usage of it. His fastball has been outstanding for the Padres, as well as an improved slider. He has also increased the usage of his two-seam fastball (35%) and cutter (16%) this year, while decreasing his change-up to 8% (from 15) and his four-seam fastball to 35%.

This year, he’s made 12 starts, and his numbers look great; he’s 6-3 with a 2.68 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. However he’s been very lucky (high strand rate 77%, low BAPIP .269), and is walking 3.6 W/9 (highest since 2003), while still not striking out a lot of hitters, 5.6 K/9. He has gone 7 innings in six of his 12 starts. His last start versus the Phillies he went seven innings, but let up 10 hits, six earned runs and a home run. Eight of his last 10 starts he’s allowed two earned runs or less.

Unhappy Recap

I didn't get to see the game today, but the Mets lost 4-2 and were dominated by Mat Latos. Latos threw six innings, allowing only three base runners and struck out eight. He elevated a fastball to H Blanco on a 3-2 pitch and allowed the only two runs of the game then.

Johan Santana threw 6 2/3 innings, but let up eight htis and walked four, while striking out only one.

The Mets offense mustered only 2 hits and struck out 12 times.

Rubber game of the series is tonight, Niese vs Garland, 7:10 PM.

Game 59 Mets vs Padres 1:10 Start

Mets go for their 5th win in a row, and 10th in a row at home this afternoon and this is the line-up that will face RHP Mat Latos:

J Reyes SS
A Pagan CF
J Bay LF
I Davis 1B
D Wright 3B
J Francoeur RF
A Cora 2B
H Blanco C
J Santana P

My prediction: The final score will be 2-1. I think the pitching match-up is a toss-up, so I will go with the home team. The Mets get to five games over .500 and go for the series sweep later tonight, Niese vs Garland, 7:10 PM start.

Pictures from Tuesday Night's Game

Here are a couple pictures from the game the other night.

Nice t-shirt, wear it proudly!

Anothy picture perfect swing by Francouer (extreme sarcasm for those new here)...

Compare that swing to Frenchy's. A-Gon drilled a double off the wall on this swing.

K-Rod had a perfect 1,2,3 inning in the 10th.

But We Love Ike, and he sent us home happy. Mets win 2-1 in 11 innings on his walk-off BLAST.

We Believe in Comebacks!

Game 59: Mets vs Padres RAINED OUT

Mets go for their 5th win in a row, and 10th in a row at home, and weather-depending, this is the line-up that will face RHP Mat Latos:

J Reyes SS
A Pagan CF
J Bay LF (terrible 0-5 yesterday with 3 K's)
I Davis 1B
D Wright 3B
R Barajas C (0-4 with 2 k's and 2 weak pop-ups yesterday)
J Francoeur RF
R Tejada 2B
J Santana P

My prediction: The final score will be 3-2. I think the pitching match-up is a toss-up, so I will go with the home team. The Mets get to five games over .500 and go for the series sweep tomorrow, Niese vs Garland, 1:10 PM start.

As always, LET'S GO METS!

UPDATE: THE GAME HAS BEEN RAINED OUT. Day/night doubleheader tomorrow, 1PM and 7PM

Thoughts From Citi Field Last Night

The Mets drew a crowd of 30,086 last night, which I would think is more than the Mets expected for a Tuesday night. I'm very happy that people are responding to the Mets playing outstanding at home (23-9), but I do have a few qualms with the crowd.

1. One of my pet-peeves is that the crowd was more interested IN THE WAVE in the top of the 8th and 9th inning of a 1-1 game. That is completely unacceptable and inexcusable. I have no patience for the wave, but have a little more tolerance in a blow-out game/in between innings. But why during the most pivotal moments of the game? The crowd was cheering more for the wave than Pelfrey getting out of the D-Wright created jam. This was also just posted to the Mets Police by someone else at the game. It was also evident on tv apparently, as one reader texted me during it asking what the heck was going on.
2. What has happened to standing and clapping with two strikes on the hitter? The crowd sat on their hands the whole game (besides the two home runs). It was almost to the point that people were more concerned with following Strasburg on the scoreboard than watching the game they paid to go see.
3. I did thoroughly enjoy the "live interview" played over the PA system at Citi after Ike's home run and the pie in the face. I know some people think "that's a Yankee thing", but I disagree. People have been doing it for years, but the Yankees just made it popular again last year because they did it so often. And I'm even happier that Ike didn't pull a "K Morales" and break his leg after the walk-off.

It was great for Ike to say the reason they play so well at Citi Field was because of the great fans; but this is the third game I've been to this year (I'm 3-0) and this was by far the worst level of crowd noise. Hopefully this was just a fluke and the crowd will respond and be into the game in a big way tonight with the match-up of aces.

I will post pictures from yesterday's game later tonight or tomorrow.

Interesting Stats of the Day: June 9

I didn't mention this in the pre-game notes or on Monday, but the Mets promoted 31-year old rookie Jesus Feliciano. He is an outfielder who can hit and loves the game. Here are his stats from AAA this year. He will be used primilarily as a pinch-hitter and to spell A Pagan occasionally.

• Feliciano hit .385 /.426 /.481 over 53 games

I joked last night when Chris Carter came up to the plate as a pinch hitter in the bottom of the 9th, "Is he going to see more than one pitch in this at-bat?" Turned out I was wrong, as he struck out on three pitches. Then I saw this interesting stat this morning.

• In 22 plate appearances prior to last night's game, Chris Carter had seen two pitches or fewer 13 times. Put another way, 59% of the times he comes to the plate he sees less than three pitches.
• That makes Frenchy look like Luis Castillo.

As I was driving back to NJ this morning, Evan Roberts was once again pointing out that Jerry Manuel mismanaged another double switch, bringing Alex Cora into the game to replace R Tejada (whom Chris Carter pinch hit for). Then this was from Amazin' Avenue's game recap.

• Alex Cora made his 33rd appearance of the season, playing two innings in the field and popping out weakly (on the first pitch!) in one plate appearance. Just a professional at-bat right there by Cora. Only 47 more appearances until the 2011 option vests. .209/.296/.267.
• As Evan pointed out, the double-switch only would've made sense if you were expecting K-Rod to throw two innings (which he did not, he threw a very effective 1,2,3 inning)

For anyone that didn't watch the Strasburg Mega-Event, you would've seen an outstanding pitching performance from Mike Pelfrey. Besides the first inning run, he was in complete control, and even overcame the D Wright two-base error in the top of the 9th. He even wanted the ball in the 10th inning, as he had only thrown 103 pitches. This is from ESPN

• Thirteen batters went to two-count strikes, and 100 percent were converted into outs compared to the MLB average of 72. He used his fastball as a put-away pitch effectively all night. Twenty of 29 pitches (69 percent) thrown on two-strike counts were fastballs, and 12 of those 20 (60 percent) fastballs were swung on. Batters chased eight of 20 (40 percent) off-speed pitches thrown outside the zone compared to the MLB average of 31 percent.

Scouting Report RHP Mat Latos

The 22-year old Latos started the 2009 season at A-ball, and ended it with the San Diego Padres. That should give you a taste of how talented/how much the Padres love this kid. Latos was a 2006 draft pick out of a Florida High School as a draft and follow, but he wound up signing and has progressed through the Padres system very quickly. Injuries hampered him in 2008 (oblique strain), and limited him to 56 minor league innings, but he struck out 69. In his 72 minor league innings in 2009, he struck out 73, and had a 1.375 ERA, while posting a .75 WHIP. Those numbers are stunning, especially for a kid who was 21 years old. He made 10 starts for the Padres last year before being shut down in early September to limit his innings pitched (he didn't throw > 95 pitches in a game last year in the majors). With the Padres he had a 4.62 ERA and 1.30 WHIP, largely due to a significant increase in walks (< 2 W/9 in the minors, 4 W/9 last year). He did win the one start versus the Mets last year in August, as he threw six innings, striking out seven and only allowing one run; four hits and three walks.

What makes Latos special? He's 6'6, so he very imposing on the mound. He throws straight over the top and features a mid-90s fastball that touches 97 and it has the dreaded "late life" (movement). He also throws a sharp, late breaking slider (86 mph) and a plus change-up (84 mph). He throws his fastball and slider 85% of the time, as he should, as they are his two best pitches. This year he is throwing a 2-seam fastball, something he didn't throw last year.

Latos has made 11 starts this year, and is 5-4 with a 3.26 ERA, and 1.06 WHIP. He made national headlines when he threw a complete game and allowed only one base hit versus the Giants on May 13th. His K/9 is back up to 7.6, and he has cut his walk rate down to 2.56 W/9. Although he's cut down his walk rate, he isn't "pounding the strike zone." He actually he throws strikes only 42% of the time (league average is 48%), but he is getting swings on balls out of the strike zone 31% of the time (league average 28%), and also has a great swing and miss ratio (9.3% versus average of 8.3%).  He's a fly-ball pitcher and has allowed 8 HRs in 66 innings. Since May, his ERA is 1.96 (7 starts).

He's a future #1 pitcher and Cy Young contender. As with any young pitcher he still is a little inconsistent, but as he showed versus the Giants, he can absolutely dominate games when he's on the top of his game. Right-handed hitters have a very tough time versus Latos, as they are hitting only .202 during his brief career.

Wowow! A very happy recap

I BELIEVE IN COMEBACKS, AND I BELIEVE IN IKE DAVIS!
Unreal game. Very very very happy ending, mets win 2-1 in 11. Only scoring for the Mets was a HR by Reyes to tie it in the 7th, and Ike to win it in the 11th. Great win, glad I was there to be a part of it. More on this game tomorrow (or tonight if I can't sleep bc of all the adrenaline).

Santana vs Latos tomorrow, 7:10 PM.

and we are going to extras...OUTSTANDING game for Big Pelf. Battle of the bullpens now.

75 pitches for Pelfrey through 7. Double barrel action up now though

View from Section 143.

Big Pelf in the Bullpen.

Game 58: Mets vs Padres

Here is the line-up that will face LHP Clayton Richard:

J Reyes SS
A Pagan CF
J Bay LF
I Davis 1B
D Wright 3B
R Barajas C
J Francoeur RF
R Tejada 2B
M Pelfrey P

My Prediction: Pelfrey once again dominates, as the Mets cruise to a 5-1 win. I will be at the game tonight, so look for a picture or two, and a bunch of pictures tomorrow night/Thursday.

LET'S GO METS!

Link: Citi Slickers NL East Weekly Preview

One of the loyal readers has recently started up his own blog and is doing a nice job with it thus far. One of the features I like the best is that he recaps the previous weeks games and the week ahead for the other teams in the division. You can check out this week's post here, and be sure to leave some feedback for Bill.

Keep up the good work and I look forward to meeting up and catching a game with you soon.

State of the Mets: June 8th

The Mets (30-27) have reached a critical part of their schedule, as their next nine games are: 3 at home versus the Padres, then six on the road versus Baltimore (16-41) and Cleveland (21-35).

They have to go at least 6-3 or ideally 7-2 over this stretch. They current sit only 2.5 games out of 1st place (1/2 game back of 2nd place Philadelphia). I am not concerned with games back in June, but use it as a reference. The Mets need to get to 5 games over .500 first, then start looking at what everyone else in the division is doing.

Hopefully we can get to that 5 games over .500 after these next nine games.

I will be at the game tonight and will be meeting up with a few loyal readers. If you haven't been to Citi Field in a while, come out and show your support.

As always, LET'S GO METS!

Scouting Report LHP Clayton Richard

The Mets just faced C Richard on Wednesday, so they should be very familiar with him and what he's trying to do. He threw six innings, letting up only one run after surrendering four hits and walking four, while striking out five. He threw 109 pitches and didn't let up an extra base-hit

The 26 year old lefty was drafted by the Chicago White Sox in the 8th round of the 2005 draft out of the University of Michigan. While at Michigan, he was the back-up QB to Chad Henne, and was 8-15 in pass attempts in 2004. He looks like a football player (6'5" 240 pounds) and made his major league debut in July 2008. He's made 44 career starts (61 appearances), and has 4.37 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. He was one of the four ptichers traded to the Padres for Jake Peavy last year, and he has really benefitted from the transition to the better pitcher's park and the weaker league. His ERA since joining the Padres staff is 3.54 in 127 innings. He faced the Mets last year (August 6th) and got the win, going 5 2/3 innings, allowing nine base runners and three runs, while striking out five.


Although he looks like a power pitcher, he is more of a control pitcher. Richard has a clean delievery and throws from a 3/4 arm slot. He works very quickly (similar to former teammate M Buerhle) and throws a tailing fastball between 89-94 mph (averages 91 this year), a slurve (20% of the time, 81-82 mph) and a change-up (80 mph). His two-seam fastball is by far his most effective pitch, and he uses that to induce ground balls. He has shown a pronounced platoon split in the past, but that has reversed this year (small sample size, but lefties are hitting better than righties against him this year). He relies on very good command/control (< 2.5 W/9 in 2008) which abandoned him last year after the trade, but has improved this year (< 3.5 W/9).

This year he is 4-3 in 11 starts and has a 2.87 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. He's gone seven innings in his last four starts, and has allowed three runs or less in all but one start (four runs and two home runs). Prior to that game, he had only allowed one home run. His ceiling is a #4 starter.

Matt Harvey

A lot of the draft pundits (Jason Churchill of ESPN and Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus) LOVE this pick for the Mets, so I have to trust them.

The Upside: Pitcher's body (6'4" 225 pounds) Some scouts say he has the potential for four above-average pitches, which is two more than he has right now. He throws 95-96 1st time through the line-up, and around 91-94 at the 100 pitch mark. His change-up is 79-84 and is a plus pitch already. He throws a curve and a hard, biting slider, but right now neither are a plus pitch. He's cleaned up his delivery this year and has a smooth arm action. He's a ground ball pitcher who has the potential to be a #1 starter. Coming out of high school three years ago, he was the top prep arm, ahead of R Porcello, but the Scott Boras price tag scared teams away. He is also a tri-state product (Mystic, CT), and has appeared in two College World Series, so he's pitched on a big stage.

The Downside: He was very inconsistent his freshman and sophomore years before putting it together this year. Still struggles with command and his curve ball has regressed since high school. Could project to a power reliever if he can't develop an effective 3rd pitch (slider or curve). Has still been inconsistent start to start.

Overall I am happy with the pick, as it's very tough to find guys who throw 95+ and our ground ball pitchers. Hopefully we can help this 21-year old develop a 3rd pitch and he can be a front of the rotation cog in 3-5 years.

Mets select Matt Harvey, RHP UNC. more to come later.

Report: Brewers Release Jeff Suppan

He's 0-2 this year, with a 7.84 ERA in 31 innings, and a 2.00 WHIP. He's been very unlucky this year (BAPIP .399; average is .303) and a 59% strand rate (average is 70%); his FIP is 4.88. He doesn't strike out many hitters (5.0 K/9) and walks 3.5/9.

His last year that he was good was 2007, and we will never forget how well he pitched against the Mets in 2006 in the NLCS for the Cardinals.

If the Brewers are going to pay his whole salary, I would take a chance on him. If he doesn't perform then you cut him and don't lose anything.

Mets Draft Day. #7 Pick Down to 3 Players?

A lot of people focus solely on the potential draft picks, and they do an outstanding job and I would be amiss if I didn't link to their sites for you to read more in-depth scouting reports. Metsminorleagueblog.com has previewed 10 potential choices for the Mets at #7.



This is how the 1st round is shaping up according to ESPN's Keith Law (Insider only):
1. B Harper, C- Nationals
2. J Taillon, HS P- Pirates
3. M Machado HS SS- Orioles
4. Y Grandal C- Royals
5. D Pomeranz LHP - Indians
6. B Loux RHP - Diamondbacks

The Mets would surely take any of the 1st three players if they were to fall to them, but that is appearing highly unlikely. Pomeranz is a possibility if the Indians and D-backs pass on him; he's 6'5" 220 pounds, with 2 plus pitches: fastball (90-92) and curve. He missed some time this year with a strained pec and it has some teams concerned, although he pitched well for Ole Miss in the NCAA regionals this weekend versus St. John's (7 innings, 7 hits, 2 runs, 3 walks, 5 k's).

If all those players are off the board, the Mets choices are between: Zach Cox, Matt Harvey, and the latest reports link the Mets to HS Cactcher Justin O'Conner, whom Omar went to scout himself on Saturday.

Zach Cox, 3B University of Arkansas. 6'0" 215 pounds. Best pure-hitter in the draft. Some questions re: his power potential  (15-20 HRs, not 30+). Left-handed hitter got three hits off of Pomeranz earlier this year. Draft-eligible sophmore so some people think he will require going way over-slot, but he doesn't have much leverage as he would be a 22-year-old junior next year and next year's draft projects to be a lot deeper. He also hasn't helped his draft stock recently as he's missed the past two+ weeks with an injury. Doesn't have much speed. Some talk of possibly moving to 2B where his bat would be above average.

Matt Harvey, RHP University of North Carolina. 6'4" 225 pounds. He was highly touted coming out of high school (3rd round pick by the Angels), but had two poor seasons at UNC before he reestablished himself this year. He hits 97 mph and has a filthy change-up; his best pitch in high school was his curve, but that has regressed to a below average pitch. Some people believe his future is in the bullpen, and if that's the case, you can't take a reliever with the #7 pick in the draft.

Justin O'Conner, High School Catcher from Indiana. He has a great arm (rated as Plus-Plus), and just recently became a catcher. Going into the year there was some debate where he would wind up, outfield, catcher or pitcher (he's hit 95 mph on the gun). Some questions re: his power potential with a wood bat, but he is a very good athlete. Could be a franchise catcher if his bat continues to progress.


Jim Callis (Baseball America) and Keith Law both have the Mets taking Zach Cox and I tend to agree with them, but I wouldn't be surprised if they take Justin O'Conner either.

I will post more in-depth/link to more scouting reports tonight/tomorrow after the Mets make their selection. The draft starts tonight at 7PM on MLB Network. The Mets have the #7 pick, but don't have a 2nd round pick due to signing Jason Bay, so their next pick will be in the 3rd round.

Another Happy Recap.

BROOM BROOM SWEEP! Mets with a huge come from behind win, 7-6!

This was the polar opposite of the Mets "mailing it in" like I had predicted. They were down 5-0, but they continued to fight and Francoeur hit a HUGE 3-run HR. A couple people asked if it bothers me that Frenchy has been playing so well over the past 2 weeks. "No, I root for the Mets to win, I don't care how it happens." Yes I have been very critical of Jeff, but it's not that I dislike him personally, I look at his numbers and don't see a player deserving to play every single day. But again, I could care less how it happens as long as we keep getting "happy recaps"

Day off on Monday, MLB Player Draft starts tonight at 7, and the Mets have the 7th pick. I will try to post some links of scouting reports to the few players the Mets are supposedly considering.

3 game series versus the Padres Tuesday- Thursday.

Game 57: Mets vs Marlins

Mets look to sweep the series from the Marlins, but it won't be easy as they face RHP Ricky Nolasco. Here is the line-up:

J Reyes SS
A Pagan CF
J Bay LF
I Davis 1B
D Wright 3B
R Barajas C
J Francoeur RF
A Cora 2B
H Takahashi P

My prediction: Mets mail this one in, and lose 7-1.

As Always, LET'S GO METS!

Scouting Report, RHP Ricky Nolasco

The 27 year-old RHP Ricky Nolasco was drafted in the fourth round by the Cubs in 2001, and was traded by the Cubs in 2005 along with Sergio Mitre and Renyel Pinto for Juan Pierre. Think about that for a minute. Wow. He's in his fifth major league season with the Marlins, and has started 30+ games the past two years. He got sent down early last year, and since then he has been almost un-hittable. He was one of the best pitchers in the National League in the 2nd half of last year, with a FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching - a measure that runs on a similar scale to ERA but strips out factors such as defense, run and bullpen support) of 2.34 after June 7th. In 2008, he had a 3.52 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, which is what the Marlins are expecting in the future from Nolasco. He has had minor elbow and shoulder pain in the past (went on the DL in 2007), but no surgical history. He has swing-and-miss stuff (7.8 K/9 for his career, 9.5 K/9 last year), and minimizes walks (2.1 W/9 for his career). He's started 15 games against the Mets, and is 4-6 with a 5.62 ERA and 1.46 WHIP.

Nolasco throws from a 3/4 arm slot and is a four-pitch pitcher, with a low 90s fastball (88-93 both a two and four seam) and a plus 85-mph slider with sharp and late break, as well as a 75-mph curveball and 85-mph split-finger fastball that he throws from the same release point as his fastball. His slider is one of the best in the majors, and he throws it 25% of the time. He had success with his split last year, but is struggling with it so far this year.

Prior to his last start versus the Mets on May 16th, Nolasco was 3-2 in seven starts, with a 3.66 ERA and 1.09 WHIP (he had decreased his amount of walks to 1.74 W/9). He had gone 6+ innings in six of his seven starts, and has allowed three or less runs in five of those games. In his first start of the year versus the Mets (April 7), he threw 6 2/3 innings, allowing three runs and only six base runners.

Nolasco threw six innings and got the win in his last start versus the Mets (May 16), allowing six hits and two earned runs. His next two starts after that he saw his ERA balloon, as he only threw 9 1/3 innings and let up 11 earned runs. He rebounded to throw seven strong innings (three earned runs) in his last outing versus the Brewers, but his ERA currently sits at 4.57 and his WHIP has risen to 1.23.  One interesting stat to keep your eyes on has been his decreasing K/9 rate to below league average to 6.8 (last year it was 9.5). He also has let up 11 home runs in 69 innings so far, but none against the Mets.

Mets won 6-1 behind strong pitching by J Niese, a huge offensive day from Ike (4-4) and a 3-run HR from D Wright. Go for the sweep tomorrow 1:10.

Game 56: Mets vs Marlins

Mets keep the same line-up as yesterday, and today they face LHP Nate Robertson for the 3rd time this year at 4:10 PM:

J Reyes SS
A Pagan CF
J Bay LF
I Davis 1B
D Wright 3B
R Barajas C
J Francoeur RF
R Tejada 2B
J Niese P

Niese is making his first start since May 16th when he faced the Marlins and strained his hamstring.

Is K-Rod available today after throwing 95+ pitches in four days?

Prediction: Mets need to win this game again and they will, but it won't be easy/pretty. Both starting pitchers let up 3+ runs, but the Mets win 6-5.

As always, LET'S GO METS!

"Showdown avoided"

Oliver Perez went on the DL today with Patella Tendonitis, the same knee that caused him pain and ultimately surgery last year. He is being sent down to Florida to begin his rehab.

Either way, we now have a team without GMJ and Ollie P; let's see if we can go on a winning streak.

Scouting Report, LHP Nate Robertson

The Marlins acquired the 32 year-old LHP from the Tigers at the end of spring training, and the Tigers are paying 9.6 of his 10 million dollar salary. He was drafted by the Marlins back in 1999 in the 5th round and was traded to the Tigers in 2003. For his career, he has a 5.17 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. He's only struck out 6 per 9, and walks 3 per 9. He's been a below average pitcher over the course of his career. He has had a myriad of injuries (he was on the DL twice last year, with a lower back strain in May and elbow surgery in July), and also had off-season groin surgery. Last year he had a 5.44 ERA and 1.75 WHIP in only 49 innings, but had a 3.77 ERA in his 29 innings after his July surgery. He's faced the Mets three times, is 2-0, and has a 2.45 ERA and 1.03 WHIP.

Robertson is mainly a three-pitch pitcher, featuring an 88-mph fastball, a slider and a change-up. His 81-mph change-up was his best pitch last year, but none of his pitches have been plus this year. He occasionally throws a curve-ball. He has starting throwing a 2-seam fastball this year and it has been his best pitch (throwing it 30% of the time).

When he faced the Mets on May 15, he was 3-3 in his 7 starts, throwing 35 2/3 innings, with a 4.54 ERA and 1.57 WHIP. He had only gone 6+ innings twice in his seven starts. In his first start versus the Mets this year, he went five innings, allowed one run on six hits and no walks, striking out four. He was walking > 4.5 W/9 this year, which was very high for someone who doesn't strike people out (5.8 K/9).

On May 15th, he got the win, lasting 5 2/3 innings, scattering seven hits and walking one, allowing two earned runs, while striking out two. D Wright hit a HR off of him his last start, but was 0-4 against him in the opening series. He's had three starts since then and twice let up four earned runs. His ERA is now 4.30, with a 1.52 WHIP. His K/9 is 5.06 and his W/9 is 4.3. That's a recipe for disaster.

Newsworthy Items

Adam Rubin of ESPN New York has a couple key updates:

• Oliver Perez had an MRI on his knee after returning from San Diego as the team is hoping that will find a reason to put him on the DL peacefully
• Rubin cited one Mets player saying his knee was "messes up"
• Blanco received a cortisone shot in his neck for a herniated disc
• Blanco said he started to feel better and was available on Friday, but the Mets didn't want to be caught short-handed catching so they brough up Santos

Carlos Beltran also played in an extended spring training game yesterday, getting six at bats, but did not run the bases or play the field. This supposedly "starts the clock" of 4-6 weeks until he'll be ready to return. This really doesn't tell us much because he has been hitting for a while in a cage and didn't run, but at least it's a small positive step. I'm keeping my expectation for his return after the All-Star Game.

Mets get a much needed W

Mets win 4-3 behind a good effort from RA Dickey (6 1/3 innings, 3 ER, 9 base-runners). Feliciano wasn't effective in relief (hit and a fielder's choice), but E Dessens threw 1 1/3 scoreless innings, before K-Rod put two runners on in the 9th. K-Rod has now thrown 97 pitches the past three games (four days). He has got to be feeling the effects of fatigue.

Bay and Francoeur both had two hits and an RBI.

Niese vs N Robertson tomorrow at 4:10 PM on Fox.

Game 55: Mets (27-27) vs Marlins (28-27)

The Mets have lost 6 of 7 to the Marlins this year, including six in a row since opening day, and face RHP Anibal Sanchez tonight. Here is the new look Mets line-up:

J Reyes SS
A Pagan CF
J Bay LF
I Davis 1B
D Wright 3B
R Barajas C
J Francoeur RF
R Tejada 2B
RA Dickey P

Prediction: Mets need a win and get it, as Dickey's knuckle-ball baffles the Marlins. Mets win 3-1.

LET'S GO METS!

Mets Roster Moves

• Luis Castillo to the DL; Ruben Tejada brought up
• We saw this one coming; Tejada is starting tonight instead of A Cora. Victory!
• Gary Matthews Jr. has been designated for assignment
• It's about time
• Omir Santos was recalled to take GMJ roster spot
• This is fishy to me, and I think the Mets are covering their butts if Perez doesn't accept a demotion by tomorrow when they need to recall J Niese to start. They don't care about Santos losing an option
• If Perez does accept going to the minors, then they can call up J Feliciano from AAA as a back-up outfielder
• UPDATE (4:50PM): Blanco received a cortisone shot for an undisclosed injury and will be out a few day. So scratch the fishiness described above. That's what happens when you try to break information without the full story...

Mets have a big game tonight, R.A. Dickey vs Anibal Sanchez, 7:10 PM.

Perfect Game?

I know a lot of paper has been wasted over this topic so I figured there was no need to spend my time stating my opinion, but since numerous people have asked me, here it is:

1) You can not, under any circumstance, reverse the call on the field after the fact. This would set baseball on a very slippery slope with no true end in sight.
2) I have tremendous respect for both J Joyce and A Galarraga for how they both handled the situation.
3) At least this call did not change the outcome of the game. Yes it prevented "history", but there are plenty of bad calls every single day that have a direct impact on the standings and if a team makes the playoffs or not, and they aren't even talked about.
4) Whether or not this leads to a wider use of replay is yet to be seen; I'm on the fence of this, as the technology is there to make more correct calls, but an umpire's strike zone usually has a greater impact on most games than one "bang-bang" play at a base.

And this didn't really matter, but how come no one is talking about Galarraga continuing to throw from the wind-up with a runner on 1st base and the runner advanced to 3rd on two fielder indifference calls. Isn't the catcher and/or a coach supposed to remind him there is a runner on base in case he forgot?

Scouting Report, RHP Anibal Sanchez

The 26-year old Sanchez is in his 5th major league season with the Marlins. He was signed by the Red Sox in 2001 as an amateur free agent in Venezuela, and was traded in 2005 in the Hanley Rameriz and Josh Beckett deal. In 2006 he took the league by storm, going 10-3, with a 2.83 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 114 innings, including a no-hitter. Since that year, he has totaled 203 innings in the last 3+ years. He has a checkered medical history, as he had Tommy John Surgery in 2003, and two shoulder surgeries, along with two DL stints last year for a shoulder sprain. He proclaims this year that he is completely healthy. After returning from the DL last year in August, he was very good, holding batters to a .212 batting average against, and a 2.68 ERA in 50 innings. For his career, he has a 3.89 ERA and 1.46 WHIP, with average strikeout rates, but high walk rates (4.25 W/9).  Against the Mets, he is 3-3, with a 3.92 ERA and 1.487 WHIP in seven starts (one this year).

Sanchez has a fluid delivery and throws from a 3/4 arm slot. He is a four-pitch pitcher, featuring a low 90s fastball (he will add and subtract on his fastball, and throw it up and down in the zone), a plus slider (83 mph), as well as a curve-ball and an excellent change-up. He throws his fastball 52% of the time, slider 25%, while mixing in his curve and change equally (11-12%). His two best pitches are his slider and change-up.

When he faced the Mets on May 14th, he was 1-2, with a 4.08 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. He wasn't striking many hitters out (5.3 K/9), but had suffered some bad luck (.343 BAPIP). He had gone 6+ innings in five of his six starts and allowed only one home run up to that point.

Now he has 10 starts and is 5-2, with a 2.89 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. He has raised his strike out per 9 to > 7, and his BAPIP has started to regress to .310 (norm is .300).  He has had a lot of success with getting hitters to swing at pitches out of the strike zone. He's won four consecutive starts, including his last outing versus the Mets when he went seven innings and allowed only six base-runners and two earned runs, while striking out seven. He hasn't let up more than two earned runs in his last eight starts. He still has only allowed one home run this year. He's gone 6+ innings in nine of his ten starts.

News From the Past 24 Hours

1. Daniel Murphy tore his MCL trying to turn a double play on Wednesday night (playing 2nd base) and is done for the season. I know at least one fan is very sad after hearing the news. My Take: Poor guy would be the Mets starting first baseman right now if he didn't get hurt in spring training, and now he loses a whole year of development trying to learn a new position. I know a lot of fans can't stand by Castillo, but the one thing he does better than anyone in baseball is turn a double play; he has no fear and is very quick releasing. 2nd base is a very difficult position to learn, especially at the AAA level. Keep battling D-Murph, good luck with your rehab (non-surgical, but still 4-6 months according to the Mets). 
2. Jerry Manuel said C Beltran is getting close to participating in an extended spring training game and that he would come back and play right field. I've been saying for a while that he wouldn't be able to patrol center field effectively, and it still remains to be seen his return date as he hasn't done anything more than jog. Realistic return date may be the All-Star break?
3. L Castillo may go on the DL because he walks worse than most 70 year old men right now. R Tejada may be in line for a promotion (he got a single off "Washington's Savior" today in Buffalo) and hopefully he gets the majority of starts to prevent A Cora's option from vesting (80 games played). 
4. There is also word that Jesus Feliciano may be getting called up this week as he's been tearing up AAA pitching, and the RF has recently moved to CF, which has the blog-sphere buzzing that GMJ may finally be coming to an end as a Met; or they send Chris Carter down because he gets to see 3 pitches a week if he's lucky.  
5. The Oliver Perez fiasco is still unsolved; the Mets need a roster spot for Jon Niese when he returns on Saturday...

Mets open up a six game home-stand tomorrow night versus the Marlins, a day off on Monday, then a three game set versus the Padres. They need to win both of these series. End of story.

State of the Mets. June 3. Pitcher's Report Cards

The Mets are 1/3 of the way through the season and today I will review the Mets pitchers, comparing them to my pre-season expectations/predictions, and see who is over or under performing (Stats are up to date as of today). The hyper links are the spring training scouting reports/more in-depth previews.

Starters:
J Santana

• Actual: 12 GS, 78 1/3 innings, 4-2, 2.76 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 57 Ks, 24 Walks
• My Projections: 220 innings, 18 wins, 3.40 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 200 Ks, 50 Walks.
• Update: Outside of the one Phillies disaster of a start, Johan has been phenomenal. 8 out of his 12 starts he's allowed 1 run or less.
• Grade: A

M Pelfrey

• Actual: 11 starts, 71 2/3 innings, 8-1, 2.39 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 52 Ks, 28 Walks.
• My Projections: 200 innings, 12 wins, 4.50 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 110 Ks, 60 Walks
• Update: Been the 1A to Johan. 8 out of his 11 starts he's allowed 2 runs or less. Has pitched 7 innings or more 6 of his 11 starts. Also showed his bulldog mentality pitching in the 20 inning game and getting the win.
• Grade: A+

J Niese

• Actual: 8 GS, 41 1/3 innings, 1-2, 4.79 ERA, 1.79 WHIP, 33 Ks, 18 walks.
• My Projections: 140 innings, 4.35 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 110 Ks, 45 walks.
• Update: Currently on the DL with a hamstring strain, and is scheduled to pitch on Saturday. He has been very inconsistent with his curve-ball this year (which was a "plus-plus" pitch). He's only throwing his curve-ball 9.5% of the time, (16.5% last year, 24.7% 2008). Has only gone 6+ innings in 3 of his 8 starts.
• Grade: C

J Maine

• Actual: 9 GS, 39 2/3 innings, 1-3, 6.13 ERA, 1.82 WHIP, 39 Ks, 25 walks.
• My Projections: 120 innings, 9 wins, 4.50 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 95 Ks, 55 walks.
• Update: My projections are pretty good for innings and K's, but he's walking a ton more hitters than even my low expectations were. Went 6 innings in only 3 of his 9 starts. Currently on the DL with rotator cuff tendonitis and I wouldn't be surprised if he's thrown the last pitch of his Mets career (either trade or non-tendered)
• Grade: D-

O Perez

• Actual: 11 games, 7 GS, 38 2/3 innings, 6.28 ERA, 1.97 WHIP, 30 Ks, 33 Walks
• My Projections: 160 innings, 13 wins, 4.40 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 150 Ks, 80 Walks.
• Update: Completely useless. I have nothing else to add that hasn't already been said.
• Grade: Any Question? F

Bullpen:

F Rodriguez

• Actual: 25 games, 28 1/3 innings, 2-1, 10 saves (3 blown saves), 2.22 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 34 Ks, 11 Walks
• My Projections: 68 innings, 35 saves, 2.70 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 75 Ks, 30 Walks.
• Update: Looking at the numbers you would think it's vintage K-Rod, but watching him every day you get the same impression that Angels fans had for years: he's a heart attack waiting to happen. Although he has had 9 1,2,3 innings in his 25 games this year. He's getting lucky stranding runners (88%, career is 80%) and a low home run rate (2 home runs this year), despite becoming an even more pronounced fly-ball pitcher. His fastball velocity has dropped 2 MPH (90.8) from last year. Has thrown multiple innings 4 times this year.
• Grade: B

R Igarashi

• Actual: 12 games, 9 2/3 innings, 11.17 ERA, 2.07 WHIP, 4 Ks, 7 walks.
• My Projections: 50 innings, 4.10 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 45 Ks, 25 walks.
• Update: Igarashi missed over a month with a hamstring strain, and has been completely ineffective since returning. 6 innings before the injury and he had a 1.35 ERA. 3 2/3 innings since returning (5 appearance), 11 earned runs, good for a 27 ERA.
• Grade: Pre-injury: A. Post-Injury: F. Total: C-

 P Feliciano

• Actual: 30 games, 20 2/3 innings 1-2, 2.18 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, 18 Ks, 13 walks.
• My Projections: I projected him as a lefty specialist and hence didn't give him WHIP/ERA projections
• Update: Righties are hitting .293 against him this year, and his walk rate has ballooned to 5.66 W/9 (last year was 2.73). Righties have a .442 OBP this year. He still is just a left-handed specialist Mr. Manuel.
• Grade: B+, would be an A if only used against lefties.

F Nieve

• Actual: 28 games (1 GS), 25 innings, 1-3, 1.56 WHIP, 6.48 ERA, 22 Ks, 19 BB
• My Projections: 60 innings, 1.55 WHIP, 4.80 ERA, 50Ks, 30 BB
• Update: On May 12th his ERA was 3.32. He was also on pace to appear in 100+ games and warmed up virtually every single night (keep in mind he was a starter before this year). He has a 6.8 W/9 rate (Oliver Perez territory) and has served up 5 HR already, which plagued him in his Astros days (06 & 08).
• Grade: C. His performance would warrant a lower grade, but I can't fault him for the massive abuse Jerry Manuel put on his arm.

Additional Pitchers: Here are a list of guys I didn't have full scouting report/projections for at the beginning of the year:

H Takahashi

• Actual: 18 games (3 GS), 4-2, 3.21 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 45 Ks, 17 walks
• Update: He has been very effective until his last start versus San Diego when they were patient and let up 6 runs in 4 innings. He's exceeded the expectations (wasn't expected to make the team out of spring training).
• Grade: A-

RA Dickey

• Actual: 3 GS, 2-0, 19 innings, 2.84 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, 12 Ks, 7 walks.
• Update: He's been very effective as a spot-starter and has very good control for a knuckle-baller. Has gone at least 6 innings in each of his 3 starts
• Grade: A-

 J Mejia - (I never did a formal scouting report on Mejia because it seemed like I wrote about him every day of spring training, including March 25, March 12 and March 6. Couple of links in there to  Metsminorleagueblog.com as well)

• Actual: 24 games, 23 innings, 0-2, 3.13 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, 16 Ks, 13 walks.
• Update: He has a walk rate above 5 and is throwing his fastball > 78% of the time, while on pace to throw 69 innings (last year he threw 94 innings). Throws a 1st pitch strike only 48% (major league average is 58%). Righties are hitting .311 against him. When are they going to send him down so he can actually improve and develop? We thought it was going to happen before the Yankees series but we are still waiting.
• Grade: B- (mainly because of his age of lack of minor league experience)

R Valdes

• Actual: 17 games, 28 2/3 innings, 2-2, 5.34 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 33 Ks, 13 walks.
• Update: Had a 2.86 ERA on May 25th, but imploded on May 31st, not recording an out and allowed 5 base runners, 4 of which scored. He's been lights out at Citi Field (.77 ERA) and has saved the Mets bullpen numerous times; 8 of his outings have been 2+ innings, 4 of them 3+ innings. Not bad for a pitcher on loan from the Mexican league. Also imploded June 2nd and let up a walk-off grand slam.
• Grade: C (based on his last two disasters)

 E Dessens

• Actual: 4 games, 4 1/3 innings, 0-1, 2.08 ERA, .69 WHIP, 1 K, 0 walks.
• Update: The 39-year old veteran was just called up on May 21st and was immediately put into a high leverage game versus the Yankees, perfect utilization of the 12th pitcher on the roster. In his next two appearances versus the Brewers, he threw 3 scoreless innings.Now it appears like Jerry thinks he is the 8th inning solution. Interesting...
• Grade: Incomplete

Overall grade for the team at the 1/3 pole: B. They are pretty much meeting expectations of being around .500- 85 win team. They are one winning streak away from getting to the A- mark, but also one losing streak away from getting a C.

Short and painful Unhappy Recap

Another road loss, another walk-off, another wasted Johan start. 11 innings, 5-1. 76 pitches over past two days for K-Rod. 7 zeros for Johan. Day off tomorrow.

I will have a more detailed recap tomorrow, but another heart-breaking loss. Johan threw 15 scoreless innings on this road trip and the team lost both games.

Pitcher's report cards will be posted tomorrow AM, but I may need to downgrade R Valdes after another brutal performance.

Game 54: Mets @ Padres

The Mets try to win the 2nd rubber game of the year and go two games above .500 when Johan faces LHP C Richard at 6:35:

J Reyes SS
A Pagan CF (HOLY COW, SOME ONE OTHER THAN A 2ND BASEMAN HITTING 2ND!!)
J Bay LF
I Davis 1B
D Wright 3B
J Francoeur RF
A Cora 2B
H Blanco C
J Santana P

That is one terrible line-up after D Wright; I'm setting the over/under of 3.5 hits for hitters 6-9 tonight and taking the under.

My Prediction: Mets win 3-1 behind another great effort from Johan.

As always, LET'S GO METS!

Newsworthy Items of the Day

1. Bobby Parnell has been outstanding over the past 13+ innings. Since May 13th, he has struck out 19 and walked only one hitter. Hopefully this will allow the Mets to send down Mejia and have Parnell take his place in the pen, especially since he has been throwing multiple innings the last few outings.
2. D Murphy had two hits while playing 2B yesterday and I didn't read any horror stories on his defense. This was the first time he's played 2B since the Arizona Fall League a couple years ago.
3. Updating other minor leaguers, Nick Evans continue to rake in AA, as he has 4 HRs in his last 3 games, and is slugging .707 over his past 10 games. Again, he would be an effective platoon option versus LHP.
4. In AAA, 3B Mike Hessman continues to mash, as he hit his 18th HR and his stats are very impressive: .303/.382/.662. He seems to have the label as a Quad-A player, but whatever he is, he owns AAA pitching right now and may deserve a shot to hit major league pitching soon. Just to keep in mind, he is not on the 40-man roster.
5. A few scouts have the Mets taking 3B/hitter Zach Cox in next Monday's Amatuer Draft with the #7 pick. Although I haven't seen him play, the reports I've read is that he is a professional hitter, and has shown occasional, but not consistent, power. I know he hit a ton of home runs last year for University of Arkansas and showcased that power in the Cape Cod League last summer, but it didn't carry over this year. I wouldn't mind him being drafted by the Mets if none of the higher ceiling high school hitters are available. Hopefully the Mets use their resources wisely (read: spend $$ smartly), as they don't have a 2nd round pick due to the signing of Jason Bay, and our able to spend overslot in some of the later rounds for some high upside players.
6. Kevin Millwood has said he would welcome a trade to the Mets. He's an innings eater and close to a league average pitcher. The next two months will greatly determine whether or not the Mets will be trying to overpay for his services or not.

Mets have a big game tonight, and they have their ace on the mound. Hopefully they can score some runs for Johan and win the series. With the Phillies losing again today to the Braves, the Mets are 1 1/2 games behind the 2nd place Phils, and 4 games behind the 1st place Braves. Hot-lanta has won 8 straight games.

Scouting Report, LHP Clayton Richard

The 26 year old lefty was drafted by the Chicago White Sox in the 8th round of the 2005 draft out of the University of Michigan. While at Michigan, he was the back-up QB to Chad Henne, and was 8-15 in pass attempts in 2004. He looks like a football player (6'5" 240 pounds) and made his major league debut in July 2008. He's made 44 career starts (61 appearances), and has 4.37 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. He was one of the four ptichers traded to the Padres for Jake Peavy last year, and he has really benefitted from the transition to the better pitcher's park and the weaker league. His ERA since joining the Padres staff is 3.54 in 127 innings. He faced the Mets last year (August 6th) and got the win, going 5 2/3 innings, allowing nine base runners and three runs, while striking out five.

Although he looks like a power pitcher, he is more of a control pitcher. Richard has a clean delievery and throws from a 3/4 arm slot. He works very quickly (similar to former teammate M Buerhle) and throws a tailing fastball between 89-94 mph (averages 91 this year), a slurve (20% of the time, 81-82 mph) and a change-up (80 mph). His two-seam fastball is by far his most effective pitch, and he uses that to induce ground balls. He has shown a pronounced platoon split in the past, but that has reversed this year (small sample size, but lefties are hitting better than righties against him this year). He relies on very good command/control (< 2.5 W/9 in 2008) which abandoned him last year after the trade, but has improved this year (< 3.5 W/9).

This year he is 4-3 in 10 starts and has a 3.00 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. He's gone seven innings in his last four starts, and has allowed three runs or less in all but his last start (four runs and two home runs). Prior to that game, he had only allowed one home run. His ceiling is a #4 starter.

State of the Mets June 2. Offensive Players Report Cards

As I stated yesterday, the Mets are going to be 1/3 of the way through the season after tonight's game. Today I will review the Mets position players, comparing them to my pre-season expectations/predictions, and see who is over or under performing (Stats are up to date as of June 1st, not including). The hyper links are the spring training scouting reports/more in-depth previews.

Catchers:
H Blanco

• Actual: 16 games, 14-46, 4 2B, 1 HR, 4 RBIs, .304/.370/.457
• My Projection: 40 games, 150 AB, 5 HRs, 20 RBI, .230/.295/.340  
• Update: He already has 6 walks and is playing well in a small sample size. Keep in mind his career OBP is < .300. Defensively he is controlling the running game as expected.
• GRADE: B+

R Barajas

• Actual: 41 games, 41-135, 11 HRs, 30 RBIs, 4 BB, 20Ks, .269/.292/.552
• My projection: 110 games, 360 at bats, 12 HRs, 50 RBIs, 20 BB, 50 Ks, .235/.276/.400 Slug %
• Update: He has pleasantly surprised everyone with his power and his "clutch" hits, but he still is the same player we thought he was: a sub .300 OBP, and a guy who strikes out and doesn't walk. He is a fly ball machine.
• GRADE: B+

Infield:

I Davis

• Actual: 39 games, 34-132, 9 2B, 5 HR, 15 RBI, 22 BB, 39 Ks, .258/.365/.439
• Was not on the 25-man roster to start the year and I didn't expect him to get this much playing time this quickly, but here were the previews: Ike Davis Era, BP, and K-Law when he got called up.
• Update: He has struggled lately at the plate (.235 in May), but he has been better than advertised defensively (despite 3 errors). As a reference, here is the major league average for 1B last year: .276/.362/.483.
• GRADE: B

L Castillo

• Actual: 43 games, 33-138, 0 HR, 22 BB, 8 Ks, 7 SB, .239/.340/.275
• My Projections: 550 AB, 2 HRs, 35 RBIs, 15 SB, .280/.365/.340
• Update: He's struggling to stay healthy and is battling heel pain on both feet. He turns a great double play, but has minimal range on defense. As a reference, MLB 2nd baseman hit: .271/.336/.417
• GRADE: C+

A Cora

• Actual: 30 games, 17-78, 4 extra base hits, 0 HRs, 1 SB, .218/.303/.282
• My Projection: 150 at bats (hopefully thats all), 1 HR, 12 RBIs, 3 SB, .245/.320/.330
• Update: He is well on his way to get his 2011 option vested for 2 million dollars. As you can see he provides negative value offensively, and has minimal range defensively. But don't forget he's a consummate professional and good for the clubhouse...
• GRADE: C-

J Reyes

• Actual: 48 games, 53-205, 4 3B, 1 HR, 21 RBIs, 12 SB, .259/.301/.361
• My Projection: 700 at bats, 115 runs, 16 HR, 60 RBIs, 45 SB, .288/.360/.450
• Update: He really struggled to find his swing and it didn't help he changed his approach when he was hitting 3rd in the line-up. He is finally showing signs of life as of late (9 game hitting streak to end May, 7 of which was multi-hit games).
• GRADE: B-

D Wright

• Actual: 51 games, 47-182, 22 extra-base hits, 8 HRs, 34 RBIs, 9 SB, .258/.364/.473
• My projections: 700 plate appearance, 105 R, 28 HR, 110 RBIs, 25 SB, .315/.400/.520
• Update: He started out the year well, but since May 7th, he's only hit .204 versus fastball. He has 65 strike outs to 32 walks. He is still on pace for around 25 HR and 100 RBIs.
• GRADE: B

Outfield:

J Bay

• Actual: 52 games, 55-192, 3 HR, 23 RBIs, 7 SB, .286/.374/.438
• My Projections: 650 at bats, 98 runs, 32 HRs, 100 RBIs, 10 SB, .270/.370/.525. 
• Update: The power simply hasn't been there as expected (he never slugged < .522 outside of his injury plagued season), but he has shown surprising speed and above average defense. Is a positive influence in the clubhouse supposedly. 
• GRADE: C+

A Pagan

• Actual: 50 games, 54-179, 4 HRs, 18 BB, 27 Ks, 9 SB, 3 CS, .302/.364/.441
• My Projection: I didn't give predictions as I didn't think he'd play more than 50 games this year
• Update: Needless to say, he has been a very bright spot for the Mets and has made Mets fans jokingly say "Carlos who?" more than a few times this year. He's cut down on his bad base-running decisions and has been one of the top 5 outfielders in the National League so far this year. 
• GRADE: A

J Francoeur

• Actual: 52 games, 43-176, 14 walks, 31 Ks, 5 HRs, 27 RBIs, .244/.305/.392
• My Projection: 680 plate appearances,  20 walks, 70 runs, 16 HRs, 80 RBIs, .270/.315/.425.
• Update: He started out hot then regressed to the player he has been over his career (.271/.311/.432). As a reference, major league average for right fielders last year was .272/.346/.447, so he's below average in all three. He is hitting .211/.276/.383 versus righties this year. He has played well defensively, but not enough to be an every day regular. 
• GRADE: D+

Pinch Hitters:

F Tatis

• 28 games, 10-47, 3 2B, 2 HRs, .213/.288/.404
• He's hitting .310 batting average (and .517 slug %) versus LHP, and .056 versus RHP (1-18)
• GRADE: C

G Matthews Jr.

• 35 games, 11-57, 3 2B, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 6 BB, 23 Ks, .193/.270/.246. 
• Yes it's been as ugly as it looks. He hopefully will be released when Beltran returns
• GRADE: F

C Carter

• 13 games, 5-18, 2 2B, 4 RBI, 1 BB, 1 K, .278/.316/.389.
• He's been barely used the past 2 weeks, and hasn't had a start since May 18th. Should be utilized versus RHP
• GRADE: INCOMPLETE

The Mets haven't gotten a single plate appearance out of either D Murphy or C Beltran, two expected starters in January.

Feel free to post your thoughts if you agree/disagree with any of the grades.

Be sure to come back tomorrow to get the pitcher's Report Cards

Game 53: Happy Recap

 Mets win 4-2 behind a dominating pitching performance from Huge Pelf and two home runs from the corner infielders.

• Mike Pelfrey acted like a true 'stopper' and really stymied the Padres offense.
• 8 innings, 4 hits, 2 walks, 1 run, 8 strikeouts (matches career high).
• He has really taken the next step in his development and is 1A to Johan
• K-Rod needed 30 pitches to get the save, allowing 3 hits and one run, but struck out the last 2 hitters
• D Wright filled the box score, hitting his 9th home run, getting three hits, two RBIs and a stolen base
• I Davis hit a mammoth HR to dead-center in the top of the 7th to give the Mets a 4-1 lead on a high fastball
• J Francoeur was so excited that he got on first base, he got picked off/caught stealing with Pelfrey up and one out in the 2nd inning.
• What was he thinking? Pelfrey was going to bunt him to 2nd and then he would score on a base hit by Reyes; being on 2nd or 3rd wouldn't have made a big difference.
• LeBlanc made my scouting report look good, as he lasted only 5 1/3 innings and didn't throw 100 pitches (93), while getting 6 flyouts to 2 groundouts (even though Ron said he was a GB pitcher; sorry Ron, you are still one of the best announcers). His change-up was also outstanding tonight.

Mets try to win the series tomorrow night, 6:35 start, J Santana vs C Richard.

Game 53: Mets @ Padres

Mets face LHP W LeBlanc tonight, and here is the line-up that will face him:

J Reyes SS
L Castillo 2B
J Bay LF
I Davis 1B
D Wright 3B
A Pagan CF
R Barajas C
J Francoeur RF
M Pelfrey P

My Prediction: Big Pelf has been Huge Pelf this year, and he steps up tonight to prevent the Mets from falling under .500. Mets win 5-1.

LET'S GO METS!

Other Newsworthy Items

1. Alex Cora is on pace to play 90+ games and for those who remember, he has a 2 million dollar option that automatically becomes vested for next year if he PLAYS IN not starts 80 games. Love that we will be overpaying him yet again next year. Glad he's so good in the clubhouse...

2. Daniel Murphy is making his 1st start at 2nd base in Buffalo today. We will see how the transition to Mark DeRosa-lite goes, especially since we learned last year left field is not his forte (although that doesn't prevent him from being an effective infielder)...

3. Carlos Beltran is supposedly running at 80% and hoping to play in an extended spring training game this week according to WFAN's Craig Carton. Hopefully he doesn't have any more set-backs...

4. Chris Carter is getting close to Nick Evans territory and is barely being utilized (4 at-bats in two weeks) and hasn't started a game since the May 16-18th series. His dominance of right-handed pitchers and Francouer's struggles against righties is well-documented...

5. Agent Boras wanted Mets to Put Ollie P on DL, and send him to see the noted sports psychologist Harvey Dorfman. What makes this terrible is that JEFF WILPON is making the decision not to put him on the DL ‘because he didn’t think that was appropriate, or necessary.’ This is according to Peter Gammons. WHY ON EARTH IS JEFF WILPON MAKING THAT DECISION?  This sums up this dysfunctional organization.

State of the Mets. June 1. Part 1 of 3.

The Mets have played 52 games, and are 26-26. After tomorrow night's game, 1/3 of the season will have been played already. I will look back at my pre-season predictions for the players stats and highlight the good, bad and ugly over the next few days.

Today I will just hit on some overall thoughts:

The Good:

1. The Mets are only 3 1/2 games out of first place and 4 games out of the Wild Card
2. They are tied for 3rd place in the NL East
3. They are playing great at home with the best record in baseball 19-9
4. In the two months they have won eight games in a row and five games in a row (vs Yanks and Phillies) and looked like a team to beat during those times.
5. Mike Pelfrey has made huge strides this year in becoming an ace, as he's 7-1 with a 2.54 ERA
6. All of this despite not having gotten a single game from Carlos Beltran (who is hoping to play an extended spring training game this week)

The Bad:

1. Although the Mets are 4 games out of the Wild Card, they have to jump 5 teams ahead of them and two teams tied.
2. They are also tied for last place in the NL East
3. They have the second worst road record in baseball, 7-17.

The Ugly:

1. John Maine and Oliver Perez numbers as a starter: 1-6, 6.04 ERA, 1.9 WHIP and 6.5 walks/9 innings.
2. They lost five games via walk-off in May (2nd most in franchise history), and finished the month 12-17.
3. Besides the two winning streaks noted above, they haven't won more than back-to-back games any other time.

Scouting Report, LHP Wade LeBlanc

The 25-year old lefty was drafted in the 2nd round of the 2006 draft, and made his major league debut September 3, 2008. He's appeared in 22 games in his major league career (21 starts), including eight this year after Chris Young went on the DL. He has a 4.53 career ERA with a 1.46 WHIP, but posted a 3.69 ERA last year. He has not faced the Mets in his career.

LeBlanc is a "soft-tossing lefty", who's fastball velocity averages 86 mph and rarely touches 90. He also throws a cutter/slider (83 mph), a late-breaking curve ball (74 mph), and a filthy change-up (75 mph). His change-up is his calling card, and it is a plus-plus pitch. He throws it with identical arm speed and from the same slot as his fastball, and throws it 25% of the time. He's a fly-ball pitcher, which helps when he throws half his games in Petco.

He started this year fantastic, making five quality starts and had an ERA of 1.54. However during the last two starts the wheels have fallen off, raising his ERA to 3.71. He had not allowed a HR in his first six starts, but let up four in the past two games. He's striking out only 6.4 per 9, and walking 3.5 per 9. He's only thrown > 100 pitches twice this year, and is averaging less than 5.5 innings per start.

In Case you haven't heard, the Mets Got Destroyed last night

Mets let up 18 runs. Yes the offense scored six, but when you let up 18 runs it doesn't matter. The Padres have one of the worst offenses in baseball (24th in runs scored per game), yet they scored 18 runs. I'll say it one more time, 18 runs.

Takahashi: 4 innings, 8 hits, 6 runs, 2 walks, 1 k, and a grand slam allowed. The Padres were very patient; maybe the scouting report is getting out on him.
R Valdes: 0 OUTS, 2 hits, 3 walks, 4 runs. again 0 OUTS. 22 pitches, 8 STRIKES
J Mejia: 1 inning, 1 hit, 1 strike out, 2 inherited runners to score.
R Igarashi: 1 OUT, 4 hits, 2 walks, 6 runs.
O Perez 2 2/3 innings, 4 hits, 1 walk, only 2 runs plus one inherited runner to score and allowed a HR.

Enough said.

Pelfrey vs LeBlanc tonight, 10:05 PM start.