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Tuesday, June 7, 2011

State of the Mets, June 7th

Haven't done one of these in a while, and after the 1st round of the MLB draft last night and an off-day for the major league club, figured today is a good time.

  • The Mets are 28-31, 7 1/2 games back from the Phillies, and in 4th place in the NL East
    • They are 15-17 at Citi Field, and 13-14 on the road
    • They are 5 1/2 games behind the Wild Card leading Brewers, whom the face tonight
  • D Wright is out another 3 weeks minimum, as is Ike Davis. I'm projecting both to return the middle of July
    • I really have no clue how the Mets are even within 3 games of .500 at this point after these two injuries. The line-up wasn't projected to be a great line-up with these two guys, and it's not pretty without them, but some how they are floating
  • Jason Bay is struggling mightily, and one blog even suggest dropping him to 9th
    • I'm looking like I was wrong on Bay, as I thought he would rebound and hit around 20 home runs this year. The way he looks right now, he may not hit 10.
  • R.A. Dickey is battling plantar fascitis, but it has allowed him to focus more and thrown back-to-back good starts
  • The biggest surprises of the season thus far have been Justin Turner and Dillon Gee, both of whom have to be in the consideration for Rookie of the Year (Turner won it for the month of May, 1st player to do so in Mets history). 
    • Turner is .308/.344/.436, with 11 extra base hits in 117 at bats. 
      • Hu, Emaus and Tejada have/had 1 extra base hit in 113 at bats this season
    • Dillon Gee is 6-0, with a 3.33 ERA in 8 starts (11 games pitched). 
      • He's had great success mainly throwing fastball and change, which accounts for > 75% of his pitches
      • His K/9 rate is average (6.5), and he's walking more than I'd expect (3.33), but he's once again benefiting from an extremely low BAPIP of .232, and his FIP (which normalizes the BAPIP to the mean) is 3.85.
I wanted to also touch on the draft last night. I have no "expert" opinion on the two they drafted, and don't even need to include their names (you can find them on every other Mets blog). I've read the same thing everyone else has read in terms of their "scouting reports", and watched their 2 min highlight videos, but needless to say, I'm very happy with the picks. The Mets are finally drafting players that have "high upside" versus the conservative regime that would always take the "safe pick." Yes there is a chance neither of these players ever make it to the majors, and there is also a chance that the Mets can't sign them (as they are both rumored to have demands of 3 million +), but I'd rather have that than take someone who at best would be a #4-5 starter, or a utility player at the majors. Give me a prep outfielder who draws comparisons to Andy Van Slke or Shawn Green, even if he hasn't played high school baseball because Wyoming doesn't have a league. Give me a high school pitcher who has touched 97 and has the best prep curve-ball with the 44th pick. These are the players the 'old regime' wouldn't bother to even look at.

Mets open up a 10-game road trip tonight (Brewers 3, Pirates 4, Braves 3), before returning home to welcome in the Angels and Athletics. I'm projecting a 4-6 road trip.

What are your thoughts on the current State of the Mets?

1 comment:

  1. the current state of the Mets is somehow they are near .500 and they are playing well considering their lineup and team. Collins is doing a great job with this team and some of these farm systems guys (remember all the talk about how awful the farm system was) are playing well--so I guess it wasn't as bad as we thought.

    The Mets are watchable and based on how things have gone for them, what else can you ask for?

    I am just amazed that the Mets have injuries that all teams have but somehow make them last a lifetime...strange...