Scouting Report Justin Verlander

This 28-year old ace has thrown 200+ innings 4 years in a row, and is well on his way to doing it again this year. His career record is excellent: 93-55, with a 3.65 ERA (17 of those losses and his ERA is inflated due to his 2008 season). In 2009 and 2010 he was a combined 37-18, with a sub 3.5 ERA.

We all know Verlander is good, but just how good has he been recently? In his last 6 starts, he's 6-0, gone 8+ innings in all but 1 of those games (7 2/3), and has allowed a total of 4 runs during that span. He struck out 10+ in 3 of those games, while walking 6 hitters total. I'm not sure if there has been another as dominating stretch in recent history.  For the season he's 10-3, with a 2.38 ERA, and 0.84 WHIP. His K/9 rate is very good (8.7), and he's minimizing walks (1.9 BB/9).

How does he do it? Well he starts off with a plus-plus fastball, that averages > 95 mph (55%), then features three other plus pitches, which almost isn't fair. A 79 mph curve has been his 2nd best pitch this year, and he's increased the use to 20%; his change-up is also filthy, 86 mph. And just to make it even that much harder, he will mix in a slider (86 mph, 8% of his pitches). He throws 1st pitch strike > 61% of the time, and gets an impressive 10.7% swing and miss, 2nd best of his career. He throws 1st pitch fastball 70% of the time.

The Mets are facing the best pitcher they've seen recently and will have their hands full, but their offense is also clicking on all cylinders the past few days. I always believe good pitching beats good hitting, but I'm excited to see today's game

Mets are Over .500!

For the first time in over a month, the Mets are above the .500 mark, due to a laugher of a game, which included 2 grand slams by Bay and Beltran.

I want to jump on the Mets playoff bus, I really do. But it's tough for me to do that, especially when just yesterday Carlos Beltran told the New York Post he would accept a trade to a contender. So that to me seems like he doesn't believe the Mets are a true contender...

But, for now, I'm going to continue to watch Jose Reyes dominate the sport, and hope the Mets continue to win. I'd love for nothing for than the Mets to be 3 games over .500 on Friday night when they open up the Subway Series at Citi, and I'll be there and hopefully an energy at Citi Field...

State of the Mets, June 27th

After winning the series in Texas, the Mets are now back to .500 (39-39), and in 4th place, 9.5 games out of 1st place. As far as the Wild Card, 6 teams separate the Mets from the Wild-Card leading Braves, where the Mets are 4.5 games back.

• Can you believe the baseball season is almost at the halfway mark? I feel like I was down in Florida at Spring Training just a month ago.
• K-Rod got credit for another game finished yesterday, despite it being an 8-3 game when he came in. That is his 29th game finished, and is on pace for 60 games, 5 more than he needs to vest his 17.5 million dollar contract for next year. 
• He better be traded/re-structure his contract, or Terry Collins should be forced to pay that salary to K-Rod next year. There's no excuse K-Rod needed to be used yesterday in an 8-3 game.
• Niese and Capuano both left their last starts with medical concerns, but hopefully are an issue
• Also on the injury front, D Wright should be back to the Mets in 3-4 weeks. Ike Davis will be re-evaluated at that point and see if he's making progress, or if he may need to have surgery.
• I haven't commented on Ike's injury that much, because it's tough to make a blanket statement when you/I don't have the full medical report. People pick and chose what they hear/whats disclosed, and rush to judgments. The Mets made the right decision putting him in the boot when they did with the information they had at the time. 
• Mets play a 3-game set in Detroit, then return home for the Subway Series.
• I will be going to the Friday night game with a loyal reader of the blog. If anyone else is going, e-mail me and we will try to get together.

All-Star Selections

I filled out my first (and probably last) ballot this morning, and here is my starting line-up, first for the National League:

C B McCann - .379 OBP and 13 home runs makes McCann an easy choice
1B P Fielder - Having a monster year before free agency
2B R Weeks - Continues to put up great offensive numbers
3B C Jones- No very strong candidate, so this is a hat tip as a career accomplishment
SS J Reyes - No doubter
OF R Braun - 3rd Brewer to start
OF M Kemp - Having an MVP season
OF A McCutchen - underrated because he plays in Pittsburgh

American League:
C A Avila - Power is getting him noticed
1B A Gonzalez- .360 average is pretty good
2B R Cano - Top slugging % among all 2nd baseman
3B A Rodriquez - Also has the highest slugging % among AL 3B
SS A Cabrera - He's helping my fantasy team, and top 2 in OBP, Slug % in the AL
OF J Ellsbury - .365 OBP and 25 stolen bases, also showing he has some pop (9 HR)
OF C Granderson - .360 OBP, 21 home runs.
OF J Bautista - .468 OBP. 23 Home Runs. WOW

Any strong disagreements out there?

Scouting report Alexi Ogando

Ogando started the year out on fire, and put to rest all the critics that thought he belonged in the bullpen. He's 27 years old, and hasd a long rocky road to the majors- he was a failed hitter and was also involved in a marriage for visa fraud. But last year he went from double A to the World Series.

This year he's 7-2 (14 starts, 88 innings), with a 2.66 ERA. he throws first pitch strikes 58% and generates 8.3% swing and misses for a 6.5 K/9, and only 2 BB/9. He's benefited from a low BAPIP (.229) and high strand rate (79%).

He's mainly a 2- pitch pitcher( main reason people viewed him as a reliever), with a heavy 95 mph fastball and a power slider. He will throw an occasional change up (5%, 85 mph).

He is a power arm who limits home runs, but I question his long term effectiveness as a starter despite a Plus plus fastball.

No Mets Update Tonight

Instead I'll be here

Scouting Report Matt Harrison

The 25-year old lefty has an ideal pitcher's body (6'4" 225 pounds), but often confounded scouts why he wasn't more of a power pitcher/able to get more strikeouts. He was part of the bounty received in the Mark Tex rental from the Braves, and he was once considered the top lefty in the Braves system. He underwent surgery to correct Thoracic Outlet Syndrome in 2009, and it appears he's finally fully recovered, as his fastball velocity is the highest of his career this year.  Harrison is 21-16 for his career (45 starts, 31 relief appearances), with a 3.91 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. He has never faced the Mets in his career.

Harrison is a 4-pitch pitcher, with his fastball averaging 93 mph (was 90-92 previous years), and that has been his best pitch this year. He has also started throwing his slider less, but throwing it harder (87 mph), increased his use of his curve (12%, 77 mph), and has a change-up (83 mph). His swing and miss % is below average at 6.8%, and his K/9 rate shows that, 5.6 this year (5 for his career). He walks too many hitters for someone who can't miss bats (3.86 BB/9). He's gotten lucky this year limiting HRs, but also benefiting from a high strand rate and an unsustainable BAPIP. His ERA is 3.16, but his FIP and xFIP are both 4.18. He's 5-6 in 13 starts this year, but he's only let up more than 3 earned runs twice this season, and currently has 7 straight starts with < 3 earned runs/

Harrison is an interesting pitcher who I wouldn't just write off just yet, especially with the increased velocity shown this year. Some scouts see his future in the bullpen, but I still see a chance he can be a middle of the rotation starter for years to come

Mets vs A's Thursday matinee

Godfrey will face this lineup if the rain ever stops:

Reyes
Turner
Beltran
Murphy
Pagan
Bay
Duda
Thole
Capuano

My prediction: Mets win the game and the series today, 6-1.

Lets go Mets!

Scouting Graham Godfrey

This was the hardest scouting report I've had to write, because no one has a lot of info on this guy. He's 26 years old (27 in August), and just made his major league debut earlier this month when Brett Anderson went on the DL. He isn't on any top 11, 20 or even top 30 prospect lists. He was drafted in the 34th round by the Blue Jays in 2006, and was traded to the A's in 2007 for Marco Scutaro. With that being said, he did outpitch Tim Lincecum last week (7 innings, 6 hits, 1 earned run).

Godfrey had 9-AAA starts (50 innings), and had a K/9 > 8, BB/9 < 2.5, and a 2.50 ERA, so very respectable numbers. He's 1-0 in his 2 starts for the A's, but his K/9 rate is underwhelming (< 4); he is minimizing walks (1.59 BB/9), and his ERA is 4.76, with a 1.50 WHIP.

He's a 4-pitch pitcher, 91 mph fastball, 76 mph curve, 81 mph slider, and 82 mph change. None of his secondary pitches are above-average. He uses his fastball and curve as his favorite pitches with 2 strikes, and in true small sample size fashion, he has thrown a fastball in a 3-2 count 100% of the time in his 2 major league starts.

Scouting Gio Gonzalez

Quick and dirty scouting report

• Darkhouse pre-season Cy Young candidate
• 25 years old, threw 200 innings last year, 3.23 ERA and 1.31 WHIP
• 2.69 ERA this year with 8.5 K/9 innings, but he's walking too many hitters (4.3 BB/9)
• 93 mph fastball (65%), 80 mph curve (30%), occasional change up (84 mph)
• Curve is his by far his best pitch, and is his go-to pitch with 2 strikes
• Lefties are hitting only .213 against him, and 12+ K/9, so expect a lot of righties in the line-up

He's given up 2 or less runs in 10 of his 14 starts (although he did get lucky and get an ugly start rained out so his stats could be a lot worse.

Overall, he's one of the top young pitchers in baseball, and going to be tough to beat.

Fan at the game

This fan wishes he was still at McFadden's...

Mets vs A's

Here's the lineup that will score some runs and draw walks vs J Outman:

Reyes
Turner
Beltran
Murphy
Pagan
Bay
Paulino
Tejada
Gee

My prediction: gee is unbeatable, and Mets win 5-3.

Let's go Mets!

Scouting Report Josh Outman

This 26 year-old lefty missed all of the 2010 season recovering from Tommy John Surgery in June 30, 2009, which is a little a little long (15+ months versus 12 months typically). He was originally in the Phillies farm system, but was traded to the A's in the Joe Blanton deal. He's appeared in 25 games in his major league career (21 starts), and is 7-4, with a 3.62 ERA and 1.28 WHIP.

Outman is a 4-pitch pitcher, who averaged 94 mph before surgery, but is now 92 mph. He also has a plus slider (81 mph), an average change-up (79 mph, 18% of his pitches), and a slow curve (75.5 mph). His two best pitches are his fastball and slider. He's only getting swings and misses on 6.6% of his pitches (9.4% before TJ surgery), and his K/9 rate is a tiny 3.77, and his walk rate is 3.45; not a good combo. He's a fly-ball pitcher, but has benefited from allowing only 1 home run in his 28+ innings, or else his ERA may not look as good (3.14; his xFIP is 4.86).

Couple interesting things to note from his small sample size this season:
1) He has yet to walk a left-handed hitter (28 batters)
2) He throws 1st pitch fastball 63% of the time
3)He rarely throws his slider when he's behind in the count, and saves it for 0-2 and 1-2 counts
4) He's only thrown 100 pitches once in his 5 starts this season

Scouting Report Tyler Chatwood

If you read any information about Chatwood, and you will hear the same 4 or 5 things

• Bulldog and aggressive mentality, won't quit on anything
• Can throw mid-90s, with a knee-buckling mid 70s curve, with an improved change-up but needs to continued refinement
• Has command issues, although it's improved, he still elevates his fastball
• Diminutive (5'11"), most teams were going to draft him as a SS/CF (he's athletic enough to do it), but was signed away from UCLA when the Angels signed him in the 2nd round in 2008.
• Despite being only 21 years old, some folks in the Angels organization compare him to Roy Oswalt (Oswalt was still in A ball at that age).

He came into the year ranked the #2-4 prospect in the Angels system, and he pitched only 1 inning in AAA this year (6 last year). He's 3-4 in 13 starts (75 innings), with a 4.20 ERA and 1.55 WHIP. He's not missing many bats (5% swing and miss rate) and it shows in his pedestrian 4.7 K/9. And the command issues which were highlighted above are clearly evident, as his BB/9 rate is 4.5. He's had 5 games this year that he's allowed 4+ runs, including his last 2 starts. He throws 1st pitch fastball 73% of the time, which is the same % of fastball's he throws in any count. His curveball accounts for 18%, with him throwing only a handful of change-ups a game.

Some people project him to be a front-line starter if he can harness his stuff/improve his command, but others think his mainly 2-pitch arsenal profiles better as a bullpen arm.

Put It In the Books

I got another prediction wrong, but I don't care. Pelfrey threw a complete game and dominated, but I'm still saddened by the loss of the 'Big Man' Clarence Clemons, who passed away after complications following a serious stroke earlier in the week. Our prayers go out to his friends and family; you will be missed by millions.

Carousel Show, Asbury Park, NJ. December 7, 2010

Mets vs Angels Sat Night

Here is another Saturday night game...and the Mets face Dan Haren:

Reyes
Turner
Beltran
Murphy
Pagan
Bay
Duda
Paulino
Pelfrey

My Prediction: Mets only muster 2 runs, and lose 4-2.

Scouting Report Dan Haren

The 30-year old Haren (turns 30 in September), was drafted in the 2nd round out of Pepperdine in 2001, made his debut with the Cardinals in 2003, and was traded to the A's in 2004 for Mark Mulder. The Three-time all-star (2007-2009), was then traded to Arizona for Brett Anderson, Carlos Gonzalez, and top-prospect Chris Carter among others. I think that Billy Beane wound up winning that trade, as the Diamondbacks haven't made the post-season since acquiring Haren. Last July I had said that Haren was available for the right price, but apparently the Diamondbacks didn't realize what they could've gotten; instead they wound up with a back-end of the rotation starter (Joe Saunders), minor leaguers (P Corbin, R Rodridguez, and T Skaggs). Haren is extremely durable (hasn't missed a start in 4+ years), and has made 33+ starts and 216+ innings with an ERA under 4 in 5 of the 6 years.  In his career, he's 1-0 in six games (five starts), with a 3.89 ERA, and 1.03 WHIP. Last year he faced the Mets and got a no-decision (6 innings, 3 runs on 6 hits, 2 walks, 8 k's; he did let up 2 home runs to Pagan and Barajas).

Haren knows how to pitch and isn't afraid to throw any pitch in any count. He hasn't look at video or scouting report of opposing hitters for years, and wants the hitters to have to adjust to him. He has a deliberate delivery and throws from a high 3/4s arm slot with a riding 88-91 mph fastball, a sharp cutter (85 mph, 43% of his pitches), a curve (78 mph) and a late-diving split (85 mph). He uses his split as his strike out pitch in 0-2 and 1-2 counts. His best pitch this year has been by far his cutter, with his split and cutter the best pitches over his career. This year he's getting an outstanding 35% of swings at balls out of the strike zone, and 10% swing and miss rate. Throws 1st pitch strike 64% of the time, so be ready to swing. He's striking out close to 8 K/9, and walks < 1.5 W/9, which is outstanding.

This year Haren is 6-4 with a 2.54 ERA and 0.93 WHIP, which speak for itself.

He's a front-line starter, who is owed $12.75 million in 2011-2012, with a $15.5 million option ($3.5 million buyout) in 2013.

Another Tough Loss

Mets had chances to win last night, and had 1st and 2nd with 0 out in the 9th, but the Angels closer realized he had a slider that was unhittable, and the Mets went down feebly, losing 4-3.

They face Angels ace Dan Haren today.

Mets vs Angels

Here is the lineup that will face veteran RHP J Pineiro:

Reyes
Turner
Beltran
Murphy
Pagan
Bay
Paulino
Tejada
Capuano

My prediction: Mets erase the bad taste left by the " walk off balk off"  and win 6-3, allowing Mets fans to go home happy.

Let's go Mets!

Scouting Report Joel Pineiro

The 32-year old RHP is in his 12th major league season, spending most of his career in Seattle, before signing with the Red Sox in 2007; he didn't succeed in the AL East and he was dumped to the Cardinals, where Dave Duncan worked his sinker ball magic, and revitalized his career. He was signed before the 2010 season to a 2-year, 16 million dollar deal. He's searching for his 100th career win (99-89), and has a 4.33 ERA and 1.34 WHIP for his career. Sounds like a #4 or #5 starter, but he's had multiple DL stints with Shouilder tightness, and has thrown 200 innings only twice in his career, and once since 2004.

Pineiro is a 4-pitch pitcher, but he is known for his sinker. His sinker's velocity has continued to drop, and now averages 87.6 mph (down from 91 in 2007), and he throws it 64% of the time. His slider is his most effective pitch this year, throws it 16% of the time, 84 mph. His change has been good in the past, but he rarely throws it (83 mph), and it acts like a splitter. His curve averages 77 mph (11%). He increases his use of his slider with 2 strikes. He throws 1st pitch strike 57% of the time, but he heavily relies on his defense since he rarely gets swings and misses (5%). Since he can't get swings and misses, it's no surprise that he has one of the lowest K/9 rates in the majors this year (3.7%). He does minimize walks, 2.2 BB/9, but it's tough to succeed with not being able to miss bats like he does.

For the year, he's 2-3 in 9 starts (58 innings), with a 4.03 ERA and 1.43 WHIP, and is winless in his last 6 starts. He's been very consistent this year, and has allowed 4 earned runs in each of his past 5 games.

In his career against the Mets, he's 3-0 (6 starts), but he didn't face the Mets last year.

Awful

You can't lose that game. Period. K-rod, Duda and Carrasco, this is on you.

Never thought we would've swept @ Atlanta, but it should've happened.

3- game series versus the Angels at Citi tomorrow

Mets at Braves

Here is the lineup that will face veteran RHP Tim Hudson:

Reyes
Tejada
Beltran
Murphy
Pagan
Bay
Duda
Thole
Gee

My prediction: Mets are once again trying to get to .500 for the first time since May 20, and Gee has been their best starter (7-0), but the Mets lose 4-2 tonight.

Let's go Mets!

Scouting Report Tim Hudson

Hudson this year is 5-5 in 13 starts (82 innings), with < 5.5 K/9, but he does a great job of minimizing walks (2 BB/9), and gets the majority of his outs on ground balls (58%, down from 63% last year). His ERA is 4.06, with a 1.15 WHIP.

Hudson is a six-pitch pitcher who works quickly and throws from the three quarters arm slot. He throws a hard sinking fastball 89-92 mph (averaging 90.6), a cutter 90 mph, a late-breaking slider (85 mph), a tight curve (76 mph), a show-me change early in the count (81 mph) and a splitter he uses for strikeouts (84 mph). Over his career his three best pitches have been his fastball, split and slider. He throws first pitch fastball 63% of the time and is relying on his fastball and slider with two strikes, but is willing to throw his splitter 0-2 and 1-2 counts.

Mets in Turner Field

Here is the Mets line-up that will face the RHP J Jurrjens for the 3rd time:

Reyes
Harris
Beltran
Murphy
Pagan
Duda
Thole
Tejada
Niese

My Prediction: I'm withholding my prediction tonight in order to congratulate my wife on passing a certification exam (she just found out today). Katie, I'm so proud of you and I knew you would do it! She is now one of only 1100 people that has the specialty designation of PCS (Pediatric Clinical Specialist).

Let's Go Mets!!

Scouting J Jurrjens yet again

This is the 3rd time the Mets have seen Jurrjens this year, with the Mets beating him on June 4th, when he went 6 1/3 innings, 4 runs (3 earned), and he surprisingly struck out 6. He is now 8-2 on the year, with a 1.82 ERA.

Below is the scouting report from June 4th.


Jair Jurrjens
25 years old
5th major league season
6'1" 200 pounds
Bats R/Throws R

The Mets face 25-year old Jair Jurrjens tonight for the second time this year. Jair Jurrjens was one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball in 2009, and finished with a 2.60 ERA, as a result of giving up three runs or less in 26 of his 34 starts (and never more than five runs), and a 1.23 WHIP. When most Braves fans were expecting him to improve on those good numbers, I predicted last year when the Mets faced him in April he would regress, and expected a 3.8-3.9 ERA in 2010. Well no one could've predicted the cascade of injuries that hit him (shoulder pain in spring training, followed by a hamstring strain which cost him 56 games, and knee surgery ended his season September 14th). That limited Jurrjens to 20 starts (116 1/3 innings), and he finished with a 4.64 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. What changed to account for the 1.84 ERA difference from 2009 and 2010? His K/9, BB/9 and ground ball rate stayed essentially the same. His 2009 BAPIP was incredibly low (.268), and it regressed back to the mean in 2010 (.300).

He has a smooth, easily repeatable delivery, with a 3/4 arm slot. He knows how to pitch, and adds/subtracts on his fastball depending on the situation. He throws his fastball 60% of the time, and it's dropped from 91 mph to 89.5 mph this year, something to keep an eye on. He also throws a decent slider (80 mph), and a change-up (83 mph). He has seen his K/9 rate drop significantly this year to 5.2/9, but he has also cut his walk rate from 3+ to 1.5 BB/9.He's cut the number of 3-ball counts he has gotten to this year from 18 to 15%.

This year Jurrjens is 7-1 (9 starts, 65 innings), and has a shiny 1.51 ERA, and 1.02 WHIP. It's surprising he's doing that well considering his velocity has decreased this year;he's minimized HR (3 so far), and has left an unsustanible amount of runners on base (88%, career is 75%), while also benefitting from a low BAPIP (.262). His FIP is 2.93, so he's still having a very good year, but not a year for the record books as his standard numbers suggest. He has not let up more than 2 earned runs in a game all year, and has gone 6+ innings in each game.

On April 16th, he dominated the Mets, throwing 7 shutout innings, allowing only 2 hits and 1 walk. In 2009, the righty faced the Mets 5 times, and went 4-0 with a 1.60 ERA. Last year he only made 2 starts against the Mets, and was 1-1 with a 4.38 ERA and 1.62 WHIP (10 walks in the 12 1/3 innings).

Mets @ Pirates Monday Night

Here is the lineup that will try to put up a big number against P Maholm for the 2nd time this month:

Reyes
Turner
Beltran
Pagan
Bay
Paulino
Murphy
Tejada
Pelfrey

My prediction: I expect some runs to be scored tonight, and its going to take 5 runs to do it. METS WIN and go into Atlanta with a .500 record.

LET'S GO METS!

State of the Mets 6/13/11

The Mets took 2 of 3 to start the road trip in Milw, and have taken the first 2 of 3 vs the Pirates with the final game tonight, Mike Pelfrey vs Paul Maholm. The Mets scored 6 runs in 5 2/3 vs Maholm on June 2nd, but he got a no decision.

The Mets have won 7 out of their last 10 games, and can get back to .500 for the first time since May 20th with a win tonight. But they still are in 4th place in the NL East, 7 1/2 games back from the Phillies, and 5 1/2 back from the Braves (5 teams between the Mets and Braves for the Wild Card).

• Chris Capuano has delivered back to back quality starts, but it's nothing compared to the mastery shown by Dillon Gee. Gee is now 7-0 in 9 starts, with a 3.05 ERA, and 1.09 WHIP. He went from a fringe major leaguer, to a potential all-star in a month.
• The offense continues to be paced by Jose Reyes, who may very well be the National League MVP at this point
• J Turner, D Murphy are both contributing more than expected at this point.

 This team has definitely been more fun to watch over the past 2 weeks, and hopefully they can arrive in Atlanta tomorrow with a .500 record.

LET'S GO METS!

Mets Pirates Sunday

Here is the team that will fave Correia:

Reyes
Turner
Beltran
Murphy
Pagan
Bay
Thole
Tejada
Capuano

My prediction; Mets win 5-2

Mets Pirates Saturday Night

Do the Mets ever play Saturday afternoon's any more? The Mets faced James McDonald on May 31 (6 innings, 6 hits, 1 earned run), and here is the line-up that he will face tonight:

Reyes
Tejada
Beltran
Murphy(3B)
Pagan
Bay
Duda (1B)
Paulino
Dickey (struck out 10 Pirates last time, but took the L)

My prediction: The Mets have won 3 of 4, and will make it 4 of 5 tonight, with Dickey's magic continuing, Mets win 3-0.

LET'S GO METS!

Mets @ Pirates

The Mets faced C Morton 10 days ago (and let up 11 hits in 6 innings, but only 1 earned run), and here is the line-up that will face tonight:

Reyes
Turner
Beltran
Murphy
Pagan
Duda (LF, Evans DFA'd)
Thole
Tejada
Gee

My prediction: I keep predicting the Mets to lose, and they win, so I will predict another Mets loss, this one 4-2.

LET'S GO METS!

Mets @ Brewers

Mets had a chance to pull within 1 game of .500 and have me hop back on the "mo-mo bus", but now they are 3 our and will fall to 4 games under after they lose to Y Gallardo tonight. Here's the line-up (without Bay for at least the next 2 days)

Reyes
Turner
Beltran
Murphy
Pagan
Pridie (EWW. He isn't even a major league average hitter, and he's hitting 6th??)
Thole
Tejada
Niese

My Prediction: Niese would need to throw a shutout to win this game tonight, and although I think he will throw a good game, it won't be enough, and Mets lose 3-1.

Great Win Tuesday, but Erased by Loss on Wednesday

All the positive momentum from winning the 2-1 game on Tuesday, and scoring 5 runs in the 8th to take a 6-2 lead last night made me excited and maybe thinking this team is fun to watchand a team to get behind. But then they collapse and lose on a walk-off in the 9th, 7-6.

Now the Mets need to face a top pitcher young pitcher, 25-year old, Y Gallardo tonight. He's won 6 starts in a row, and hasn't allowed more than 2 runs in any of those games. He's 8-2 with a 3.72 ERA and 1.34 WHIP, which is right in line with his career averages (44-26, 3.68 ERA, 1.32 WHIP). His K/9 rate is at a career low this year (7.5), and his swing and miss % is just average as well (8%). He's a 4 pitch pitcher (fastball, curve, slider, and change-up), with his fastball (92 mph) and his slider (86 mph) his two best pitches, but also has an above average curve (80 mph).

Mets @ Brewers

Here is the line-up that will most likely loss to S Marcum tonight:

Reyes
Turner
Beltran
Murphy
Pagan
Bay
Thole
Tejada
Capuano

My Prediction: Capuano wants to have a nice game versus the Brewers, his former team, but it won't be enough, as the Mets lose 4-1.

State of the Mets, June 7th

Haven't done one of these in a while, and after the 1st round of the MLB draft last night and an off-day for the major league club, figured today is a good time.

• The Mets are 28-31, 7 1/2 games back from the Phillies, and in 4th place in the NL East
• They are 15-17 at Citi Field, and 13-14 on the road
• They are 5 1/2 games behind the Wild Card leading Brewers, whom the face tonight
• D Wright is out another 3 weeks minimum, as is Ike Davis. I'm projecting both to return the middle of July
• I really have no clue how the Mets are even within 3 games of .500 at this point after these two injuries. The line-up wasn't projected to be a great line-up with these two guys, and it's not pretty without them, but some how they are floating
• Jason Bay is struggling mightily, and one blog even suggest dropping him to 9th
• I'm looking like I was wrong on Bay, as I thought he would rebound and hit around 20 home runs this year. The way he looks right now, he may not hit 10.
• R.A. Dickey is battling plantar fascitis, but it has allowed him to focus more and thrown back-to-back good starts
• The biggest surprises of the season thus far have been Justin Turner and Dillon Gee, both of whom have to be in the consideration for Rookie of the Year (Turner won it for the month of May, 1st player to do so in Mets history). 
• Turner is .308/.344/.436, with 11 extra base hits in 117 at bats. 
• Hu, Emaus and Tejada have/had 1 extra base hit in 113 at bats this season
• Dillon Gee is 6-0, with a 3.33 ERA in 8 starts (11 games pitched). 
• He's had great success mainly throwing fastball and change, which accounts for > 75% of his pitches
• His K/9 rate is average (6.5), and he's walking more than I'd expect (3.33), but he's once again benefiting from an extremely low BAPIP of .232, and his FIP (which normalizes the BAPIP to the mean) is 3.85.

I wanted to also touch on the draft last night. I have no "expert" opinion on the two they drafted, and don't even need to include their names (you can find them on every other Mets blog). I've read the same thing everyone else has read in terms of their "scouting reports", and watched their 2 min highlight videos, but needless to say, I'm very happy with the picks. The Mets are finally drafting players that have "high upside" versus the conservative regime that would always take the "safe pick." Yes there is a chance neither of these players ever make it to the majors, and there is also a chance that the Mets can't sign them (as they are both rumored to have demands of 3 million +), but I'd rather have that than take someone who at best would be a #4-5 starter, or a utility player at the majors. Give me a prep outfielder who draws comparisons to Andy Van Slke or Shawn Green, even if he hasn't played high school baseball because Wyoming doesn't have a league. Give me a high school pitcher who has touched 97 and has the best prep curve-ball with the 44th pick. These are the players the 'old regime' wouldn't bother to even look at.

Mets open up a 10-game road trip tonight (Brewers 3, Pirates 4, Braves 3), before returning home to welcome in the Angels and Athletics. I'm projecting a 4-6 road trip.

What are your thoughts on the current State of the Mets?

Mets braves Sunday night baseball

Here is the lineup that will struggle to score runs vs Tim Hudson:

Reyes
Turner
Beltran
Murphy
Pagan
Paulino ( this is a bad sign if he's hitting 6th vs a RHP)
Pridie ( no Bay)
Tejada
Dickey

My prediction: Mets won't score 3 runs, and that is what they need to do to beat Hudson, as they lose the game and the series.

Mets vs Braves Saturday Night

Here is the lineup that will face J Jarrjens in the second of 3 night games ( ugh)

Reyes
Turner
Beltran
Murphy
Pagan
Bay (OUCH, BUT RIGHT MOVE)
Thole
Tejada
Gee

My prediction: It's a race to 4 runs, and Mets lose 4-3.

Scouting Report Jair Jurrjens

Jair Jurrjens
25 years old
5th major league season
6'1" 200 pounds
Bats R/Throws R

The Mets face 25-year old Jair Jurrjens tonight for the second time this year. Jair Jurrjens was one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball in 2009, and finished with a 2.60 ERA, as a result of giving up three runs or less in 26 of his 34 starts (and never more than five runs), and a 1.23 WHIP. When most Braves fans were expecting him to improve on those good numbers, I predicted last year when the Mets faced him in April he would regress, and expected a 3.8-3.9 ERA in 2010. Well no one could've predicted the cascade of injuries that hit him (shoulder pain in spring training, followed by a hamstring strain which cost him 56 games, and knee surgery ended his season September 14th). That limited Jurrjens to 20 starts (116 1/3 innings), and he finished with a 4.64 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. What changed to account for the 1.84 ERA difference from 2009 and 2010? His K/9, BB/9 and ground ball rate stayed essentially the same. His 2009 BAPIP was incredibly low (.268), and it regressed back to the mean in 2010 (.300).

He has a smooth, easily repeatable delivery, with a 3/4 arm slot. He knows how to pitch, and adds/subtracts on his fastball depending on the situation. He throws his fastball 60% of the time, and it's dropped from 91 mph to 89.5 mph this year, something to keep an eye on. He also throws a decent slider (80 mph), and a change-up (83 mph). He has seen his K/9 rate drop significantly this year to 5.2/9, but he has also cut his walk rate from 3+ to 1.5 BB/9.He's cut the number of 3-ball counts he has gotten to this year from 18 to 15%.

This year Jurrjens is 7-1 (9 starts, 65 innings), and has a shiny 1.51 ERA, and 1.02 WHIP. It's surprising he's doing that well considering his velocity has decreased this year;he's minimized HR (3 so far), and has left an unsustanible amount of runners on base (88%, career is 75%), while also benefitting from a low BAPIP (.262). His FIP is 2.93, so he's still having a very good year, but not a year for the record books as his standard numbers suggest. He has not let up more than 2 earned runs in a game all year, and has gone 6+ innings in each game.

On April 16th, he dominated the Mets, throwing 7 shutout innings, allowing only 2 hits and 1 walk. In 2009, the righty faced the Mets 5 times, and went 4-0 with a 1.60 ERA. Last year he only made 2 starts against the Mets, and was 1-1 with a 4.38 ERA and 1.62 WHIP (10 walks in the 12 1/3 innings).

Mets vs Braves Friday Night

Here is the lineup that will face Derek Lowe:

Reyes
Turner
Beltran
Bay
Murphy
Pagan
Thole
Tejada
Niese

My prediction: Mets win 5-3.

LET'S GO METS!

Scouting Derek Lowe again

Derek Lowe
38 years old (birthday was June 1)
15th major league season
6'6" 230 pounds
Bats R/Throws R

When I saw the Mets were facing Lowe to open the series, I thought the scouting report would be easy, as it seems like we've seen him 5 times each for the past 2 years. Then I heard he was 5-0 in September last year, and began to wonder, "was it just a small sample size and he got lucky, or did he change how he pitched?" He ended the year with a 4.00 ERA and 1.37 WHIP, a nice improvement from 2009 when he was 4.67 ERA and 1.52 WHIP. He still had the 2nd highest ground ball % (behind teammate Tim Hudson), but the reason for the change was he went back to throwing his slider and it was a true swing and miss/out pitch. He saw his K/9 rate jump to 6.32 from 5.1 in 2009.

The 37-year old RHP was a highly sought-after free agent after the 2008 season, and wound up getting a four-year, $60 million contract. The Mets hesitated on giving an aging veteran such as Lowe a four-year contract, and decided on Oliver Perez for 3 years was a better choice. Although he went 15-10 in 34 starts 2009, he gave up 232 hits in 194 innings and had a .301 batting average against. He had a 4.67 ERA and 1.52 WHIP, while also seeing his GB rate decrease to 66% (75% in 2007).

The 6’6” Lowe throws from a ¾ to low ¾ arm slot, and features a sinking 87-88 mph and a late-breaking slider (80 mph), which has been the key to his success recently. He throws his fastball 66% of the time, his slider 16% of the time (26% in his 2011 starts), and he has increased the use of his change-up (84 mph) this year to 16% (previously was only a 'show-me pitch'). He rarely throws inside/backs hitters off the plate.

In 2011, he's 3-4 in 12 starts (only 67 innings), with a 4.03 ERA and 1.36 WHIP.  As noted above, he's throwing his slider more often, and his K/9 rate is up over 7.8, which would be the second highest in his 15 year career. He has seen an uptick in his BB/9 rate to 3.6 (2.8 last year), and it's because he's throwing a career low 33% of his pitches in the strike zone, and first pitch strike only 52% of the time, also a career low. He's walked 5 hitters in back to back games his last two outings.

For his career against the Mets, he has started 10 times in the past 2 years, and 12 starts in his career (17 games) is 5-5 with a 5.75 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP. He started five of those games in 2009 with the Braves, and had a 6.94 ERA and 1.67 WHIP, with 10 strikeouts in 23 1/3 innings. He rebounded in 2010 versus the Mets, as he had a 2.96 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in his 4 starts (1-2 record). When he faced the Mets on April 16, he got the win, going 6 innings, 2 runs on 5 hits, 2 walks, and 4 k's.

He's a league average pitcher on the back-end of his career; he is useful to the Braves (and would be for the Mets) but they wish he was making 6-8 million versus 15 million.

Taken From on Top of the Green Monster, May 29, 2006

Thursday matinee Mets vs Pirates

Here is the line up that will face P Maholm

Reyes
Turner
Beltran
Bay
Pagan
Paulino
Evans
Tejada
Pelfrey

My prediction: Pelfrey throws a gem and Mets salvage a series split, winning 4-1.

LET'S GO METS!

Scouting Report Paul Maholm

The 28-year old LHP (turns 29 later this month), is in his 7th major league season, and is considered the Pirates "ace", but its more out of necessity than that he has the stuff to be a #1 starter. His career record is skewed because he hasn't played for a team that's ever finished .500, 49-66, with a 4.39 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. His best season was in 2008, when he posted a 3.71 ERA. He was a far cry from that in the 2nd half of last year, when his fastball barely topped 85 mph, and his ERA finished at 5.10

Maholm has a deceptive delivery and throws from a high 3/4s arm action. He used to throw 87-90 mph, but his average fastball is 87.6 mph, down from 89.5 in 2009. He has a plus change-up (17.5%, 82 mph), an above-average slider (13%, 81 mph), and a slow curve-ball (72 mph). His two best pitches this year are his slider and change-up.

This year, he is 2-7 (11 starts, 70 2/3 innings), with a 3.18 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. His K/9 rate is at a career high (6.11), and his BB/9 is average at 3.18. He limits HRs, and is a ground-ball pitcher. He throws 1st pitch fastball 63%.

For his career against the Mets, Maholm is 3-3 (8 starts, 45 innings), with a 4.60 ERA and 1.60 WHIP, He got hit around last year in his lone start versus the Mets in September, 3 2/3 innings, 7 hits, 7 runs (only 2 earned), 2 walks and one lone strike out.

Mets vs Pirates

Here is one of the worst lineups you'll see in all of baseball:

Pagan
Turner
Beltran
Bay
Murphy
Paulino
Harris (3B)
Tejada
Capuano

I really think Capuano may be better off hitting clean up with this motley crew...

My prediction: this offense will not score 2 runs, so that means another loss.

Scouting Report Kevin Correia

The 30-year RHP is in his 9th major league season, 3rd organization (formerly with the Padres), who signed a 2 year, 8 million dollar contract with the Pirates this off-season. He's 43-47 for his career, and has bounced back and forth between the rotation and the bullpen (116 starts, 127 relief appearances). His K/9 rate is 6.4 and BB/9 is 3.45, with a career ERA of 4.47 and 1.42 WHIP. On the surface it seems like he's a league average pitcher. But when looking deeper, he started to turn the corner in 2009 when he finished with a 3.91 ERA, and was throwing well at the start of last year until his younger brother was killed in a hiking accident in mid-June, and his performance thereafter suffered (understandably so).

Correia throws 90-92 mph fastball 48% of the time, an 88 mph cutter (15%), 85 mph slider (11%), 85 mph change (10%), and a 77 mph curve (15%). His best pitch is his slider, and he has had some success with his fastball in the past. This year he's getting a paltry 5.3% swing and miss, and he's only throwing 46% of his pitches in the strike zone. With the swing and miss % that low, it's understandable why his K/9 rate this year is 3.8, but his BB/9 is stunning: 1.9. He's transformed from a fly-ball pitcher to a ground-ball pitcher after shifting from Petco Park.

This year he's 7-4 with a 3.44 ERA and 1.19 WHIP.

Career against the Mets he's 1-3, with a 2.94 ERA and 1.21 WHIP; his lone win came last year, despite the fact he let up 6 runs in 6 innings.