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Saturday, September 18, 2010

Scouting Tim Hudson yet again

I have done the scouting report on Huddy a few times this year, so here is the link to the one on September 2nd, and I will discuss his starts since then.

Sept 2nd vs Mets 7 innings, 8 hits, 4 runs (3 ER), 1 W, 4 Ks. Takes the loss (Braves lose 4-2).
Sept 7th vs Pirates 6 1/3 innings, 6 hits, 4 runs, 1 W, 4 Ks. Takes the loss (Braves get shutout 5-0).
Sept 12th vs Cardinals 5 innings, 9 hits, 6 runs, 2 W, 1 HBP, 5 Ks, 2 HRs. Takes the loss (Braves lose 7-3).

He is now 15-8 and his ERA has risen from 2.24 to 2.62. I may still have a chance that it gets over 3 (but I doubt it). Have his BAPIP or LOB% regressed back to the mean?

On July 10th, his BAPIP was .234 and I said it was unsustainable. By September 2nd it had risen to .244, but I once again said it was unsustainable. Today it is now .254. Baby steps in regressing back to the mean (.286 for Hudson's career, higher for MLB average). His LOB % was 84% back in July and it is now down to 81% (career average 74%). And his strikeout rate is still under 5.5 for the year (career > 6 K/9) and whiff rate is 7.2% (career average is 9.2%).He's also throwing strikes a career low 46% of his pitches.

It may seem like I'm nit-picking on Hudson, but I wanted to prove a point that he is not deserving of the NL Cy Young (as some Braves fans believe). Hudson is a quality pitcher, don't get me wrong, but his performance was over his head. He is pitching closer to a 3.60 ERA rather than a 2.60. Even still, I'd love to have a guy throwing 200+ innings and have a 3.60 ERA, I just don't need him to be discussed for best pitcher in the National League.


  1. PROPS--> Anderson fouled a ball off his foot, after 2 minutes of trying to shake it off, gets in the box and hits a BOMB....he barely made it around the bases, HE IS ALL HEART!!!

  2. the Mets are still playing? No kidding.