Long Live Shea Stadium: Scouting Report Johan Santana

Sunday, March 13, 2011

Scouting Report Johan Santana

Johan Santana- #57

32 years old today (Happy Birthday Johan!)
11th Major League Season
6'0" 210 pounds
Bats L/Throws L

For 2010 scouting report, click here

The Good: Short arm action and delivers from a three-quarter arm slot. Excellent movement on his fastball which is now 89-90 mph (averaged 89.4 last year, down from 93 in 2006). Has one of the best change-ups in baseball (79 mph), and has a solid slider (82 mph). Very athletic and his fun personality is contagious. He threw first pitch strikes 66% of the time last year. He minimizes walks (2.5 BB/9), and keeps the ball in the yard, especially in the cavernous Citi Field. He had a shiny 2.98 ERA in 2010.

The Bad: Had season-ending shoulder surgery on September 14th; Johan had elbow surgery in September 2009 (2nd time he's had this "clean up" surgery), and this was his 3rd straight year he's had surgery. His K/9 rates have dropped every year from 2004 (10.46 to 7.88 in 2009, to a pedestrian 6.5 K/9). His swing and miss rate has also steadily dropped, from 14% in 2007 to a career low 9.2% (league average is 8.5%), which is not promising. He has turned into a fly ball pitcher, which is ok in Citi Field, but presents a problem on the road, where he let up 13 home runs last year in 110 innings (3 home runs in 89 innings at Citi).

Role: Johan he is the most exciting pitcher on the Mets, and is a treat to watch every single time he is on the mound. He is the clear #1 pitcher on the staff when healthy, but he is just a shell of what he was just a few short years ago, and he is still owed at least 77.5 million over the next 3 years (depending on the buyout of the 2014 season). The word from the Mets is that they expect him back late June/early July; I'd put the target more during August, as my projected innings below will indicate.