Here is the line-up that will face RHP James McDonald:
Pagan
Turner
Beltran
Bay
Murphy (3B)
Evans (1B)
Thole
Tejada
Dickey
My Prediction: Mets win 5-4, as Dickey struggles to throw 5 innings.
LET'S GO METS
Tuesday, May 31, 2011
And I'm Back!
I hope everyone had a great Memorial Day Weekend, as I certainly did. The little time away from the blog was spent with friends and family, and it was much needed. What has happened in the mean-time?
The Mets sit at 25-28, 8 1/2 games back from the Phillies, and in 4th place in the NL East. Ike Davis is flying back to NY because his ankle isn't responding how they would like, and D Wright has not yet begun baseball activities as far as I know (original plan was to rest for 10 days, it's now been 14 days). Justin Turner has been a pleasant surprise, but is anyone else sick of having Willie Harris play the infield? And with J Reyes on the Bereavement list (eligible to return on Thursday), no one could've imagined that on any May night, our infield would be D Murphy, W Harris, J Turner and R Tejada.
Other things to keep an eye on: MLB Draft is next week, with the Mets being linked to the UNC SS, or an OF from UCONN. Every one will be watching to see if they are taking chances with guys going overslot/taking the best player available.
What are your thoughts about the current state of the Mets? Are you ready to trade Beltran, K-Rod, Reyes and/or Wright now, or wait another 4-6 weeks to see if we can crawl above .500 and make a wild card run?
LET'S GO METS!
The Mets sit at 25-28, 8 1/2 games back from the Phillies, and in 4th place in the NL East. Ike Davis is flying back to NY because his ankle isn't responding how they would like, and D Wright has not yet begun baseball activities as far as I know (original plan was to rest for 10 days, it's now been 14 days). Justin Turner has been a pleasant surprise, but is anyone else sick of having Willie Harris play the infield? And with J Reyes on the Bereavement list (eligible to return on Thursday), no one could've imagined that on any May night, our infield would be D Murphy, W Harris, J Turner and R Tejada.
Other things to keep an eye on: MLB Draft is next week, with the Mets being linked to the UNC SS, or an OF from UCONN. Every one will be watching to see if they are taking chances with guys going overslot/taking the best player available.
What are your thoughts about the current state of the Mets? Are you ready to trade Beltran, K-Rod, Reyes and/or Wright now, or wait another 4-6 weeks to see if we can crawl above .500 and make a wild card run?
LET'S GO METS!
Scouting Report James McDonald
The 26-year old Righty was traded to the Pirates from the Dodgers at the deadline last year, and started 11 games down the stretch for the Pirates, showing some promise, and leaving people scratching their head on why the Dodgers traded him. He's 12-14 in his brief major league career (194 innings, 74 games, 26 starts), with a 4.22 ERA and 1.44 WHIP.
McDonald is a 3-pitch pitcher, with a fastball that tops out at 96 (92 mph average), a 12-6 curve (76 mph), and a change (81 mph). He uses his curve if he's ahead in the count with 2 strikes, and if he gets to 3-2, he's thrown his fastball 98% of the time this year. He throws 1st pitch fastball 79% of the time. He's a fly-ball pitcher, and he has already let up 9 home runs (53 innings). His K/9 is average (7.6 K/9) and he's walking too many hitters (4 BB/9).
This year he's 3-3 (10 starts, 53 1/3 innings), 5.23 ERA, and 1.50 WHIP. He's had 4 games this year he's let up 5+ runs, and hasn't let up more than 2 runs in the other 6 games. He has not thrown 7 innings once this year, and has only thrown 100+ pitches twice.
He's faced the Mets 6 times (2 starts, both in 2010), and has a 4.41 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. Both of those starts game in August and September; in August he struggled, allowing 5 runs in 5 innings (including a D Wright HR), while walking 5, but his September start at Citi Field was a different story. He threw 8 scoreless innings, 5 hits, 2 walks, but got the no-decision as the Mets scored the lone run of the game in the 10th inning.
McDonald is a 3-pitch pitcher, with a fastball that tops out at 96 (92 mph average), a 12-6 curve (76 mph), and a change (81 mph). He uses his curve if he's ahead in the count with 2 strikes, and if he gets to 3-2, he's thrown his fastball 98% of the time this year. He throws 1st pitch fastball 79% of the time. He's a fly-ball pitcher, and he has already let up 9 home runs (53 innings). His K/9 is average (7.6 K/9) and he's walking too many hitters (4 BB/9).
This year he's 3-3 (10 starts, 53 1/3 innings), 5.23 ERA, and 1.50 WHIP. He's had 4 games this year he's let up 5+ runs, and hasn't let up more than 2 runs in the other 6 games. He has not thrown 7 innings once this year, and has only thrown 100+ pitches twice.
He's faced the Mets 6 times (2 starts, both in 2010), and has a 4.41 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. Both of those starts game in August and September; in August he struggled, allowing 5 runs in 5 innings (including a D Wright HR), while walking 5, but his September start at Citi Field was a different story. He threw 8 scoreless innings, 5 hits, 2 walks, but got the no-decision as the Mets scored the lone run of the game in the 10th inning.
Friday, May 27, 2011
Happy Memorial Day Weekend
Sorry for no scouting reports yesterday or today, and I can't guarantee anything for the rest of the weekend versus the Phillies, as I'm out enjoying Memorial Day Weekend with friends and family.
For those who have served in the armed forces, I sincerely thank you for your brave service, and making this the great country that it is.
(My brief prediction which isn't based on much, Mets lose 2 of 3).
Enjoy the games everyone!
For those who have served in the armed forces, I sincerely thank you for your brave service, and making this the great country that it is.
(My brief prediction which isn't based on much, Mets lose 2 of 3).
Enjoy the games everyone!
Thursday, May 26, 2011
Another Mets loss
I know I haven't been doing post game recaps, but since a loyal reader sent this along, i had to post it.
Thanks TC.
Mets @ cubs
Big Carlos Zambrano Goes for the Cubs today vs Dickey.
My prediction: Mets win 3-2. LET'S GO METS!
Wednesday, May 25, 2011
Mets Will Win Tonight Lineup
Here is the lineup that will score plenty of runs off of C Coleman:
Reyes
Thole
Beltran
Bay
Murphy
Turner
Pridie
Tejada
Gee
Someone explain to me how Thole wasn't good enough to hit a RHP last night, yet is good enough to hit #2 tonight?
My prediction: Thole hitting 2nd won't matter, as the Mets some how score early and often, and win in a laughter, 8-2.
LET'S GO METS!
Scouting Casey Coleman
23 year old RHP Casey Coleman comes from a great pitching family (both his grandfather and father were major leaguers), and he made his major league debut last August. He's appeared in 19 games (15 starts), and is 6-5 with a 4.83 ERA and 1.60 WHIP. He has never faced the Mets in his brief career.
This year he's 2-3, with a 6.5 K/9 rate, and 6.5 BB/9 Rate. THAT'S HARD TO DO. Because of the high walk rate, his WHIP is 1.89 and his ERA is 6.03. His swing and miss % is 5.7%, and he only throws 1st pitch strike 47%.
Coleman's stuff = not all that exciting. 88-92 fastball, good changeup, workable slider/cutter and curveball. His two best pitches are his curve and change up, and he throws them both > 16% of his pitch (each), with his fastball being thrown > 60%.
His ceiling is a fifth starter or long reliever.
This year he's 2-3, with a 6.5 K/9 rate, and 6.5 BB/9 Rate. THAT'S HARD TO DO. Because of the high walk rate, his WHIP is 1.89 and his ERA is 6.03. His swing and miss % is 5.7%, and he only throws 1st pitch strike 47%.
Coleman's stuff = not all that exciting. 88-92 fastball, good changeup, workable slider/cutter and curveball. His two best pitches are his curve and change up, and he throws them both > 16% of his pitch (each), with his fastball being thrown > 60%.
His ceiling is a fifth starter or long reliever.
Tuesday, May 24, 2011
Mets @ Cubs
Here is the line-up that will face Ryan Dempster:
Reyes
Murphy
Beltran
Bay
Turner
Harris (CF)
Paulino
Tejada
Niese
My Prediction: I was told by a little birdy he thinks the Mets are going to win 5-2, but I'm going against the Birdie and say the Mets lose 3-2.
P.S. Some may wonder why I haven't discussed the New Yorker article/the new SI article. 1) The Real world is getting in the way. 2) It's been assumed the Mets payroll would be around 100 million next season. So why the panic now?
Let's Go Mets
Reyes
Murphy
Beltran
Bay
Turner
Harris (CF)
Paulino
Tejada
Niese
My Prediction: I was told by a little birdy he thinks the Mets are going to win 5-2, but I'm going against the Birdie and say the Mets lose 3-2.
P.S. Some may wonder why I haven't discussed the New Yorker article/the new SI article. 1) The Real world is getting in the way. 2) It's been assumed the Mets payroll would be around 100 million next season. So why the panic now?
Let's Go Mets
Scouting report Ryan Dempster
A terse look at his numbers for the year (6.91 era, 1.57 whip), and you think this should be an easy night for the Mets. But it is much based on a whole lot of bad luck.
Dempster is in his 14th major league season, and has thrown 200+ innings each of the past 3 years. He has a 4 & 2 seam fastball (90 mph, 54%), a plus slider (85 mph, 34%), and a split finger (82 mph, 12%). He's a groundball pitcher, but he's been victimized by the long ball this year (20.4% of his fly balls have been Home runs; league and career average is 11%). He's still striking out a respectable number(8.3), and limiting walks (3.3), but his bapip is .333, and lob % is 61.7 ( career is 71.6%), which should regress back to the norm. His FIP is 4.83, so he should be better than his current ERA stands.
Sunday, May 22, 2011
Mets at Yankees Sunday Afternoon
Here's the lineup that will face 24 year Ivan Nova:
Reyes
Murphy
Beltran
Bay
Martinez
Turner
Harris
Paulino
Pridie
Pelfry
My prediction: Mets win the series and back to 500 and win today by a score of 6-4
LETS GO METS!!
Scouting Ivan Nova
The 24-year old righty was signed out of the Dominican Republic, and briefly left for the Padres organization when they selected him in the rule 5 draft in 2009; he pitched poorly in spring training and was returned to the Yankees. He added some velocity last year, and was called up to the Yankees and pitched decent in 42 innings (4.50 ERA, 1.48 WHIP).
Nova used to throw 90-91 mph, but he's added velocity and now is 92-94, but can touch 97. He has a high effort delivery which is very deceptive the first time through the order, but hitters adjust the 2nd time around. He also throws a curve and a change-up, but neither pitch is average at this point.
So far this year he's made 8 starts, and is 4-3 with a 4.33 ERA, and 1.51 WHIP. His K/9 is way to low to survive in the majors, let alone the AL East, 4.95, and his BB/9 is too high as well, > 4.
His ceiling is a back of a rotation starter, and many think he may wind up in the bullpen for shorter outings.
Nova used to throw 90-91 mph, but he's added velocity and now is 92-94, but can touch 97. He has a high effort delivery which is very deceptive the first time through the order, but hitters adjust the 2nd time around. He also throws a curve and a change-up, but neither pitch is average at this point.
So far this year he's made 8 starts, and is 4-3 with a 4.33 ERA, and 1.51 WHIP. His K/9 is way to low to survive in the majors, let alone the AL East, 4.95, and his BB/9 is too high as well, > 4.
His ceiling is a back of a rotation starter, and many think he may wind up in the bullpen for shorter outings.
Saturday, May 21, 2011
Mets at Yankees Saturday night
Same line up as yesterday.
My prediction: Mets Win 4-2!
LETS GO METS!
Scouting Report A.J. Burnett
Can you believe A.J. Burnett is 34, and is in his 13th season as a major leaguer. That surprised me, because you would think he would be a little more consistent than the maddeningly inconsistent that is A.J. Burnett. 114-103 career record, with a 3.99 ERA and 1.32 WHIP, 8.2 K/9 rate, and 3.7 BB/9 rate; does that sound like someone who is in his 3rd year of a 5 year, 82 million dollar deal? There were people calling for the Yankees to completely cut ties with Burnett after last year's disaster down the stretch, when his ERA down the stretch was 6.61. And that's way too much money to just eat, so he's back for another year; plus, who else do the Yankees have to replace him?
A.J. Burnett's stuff can be filthy, so filthy in fact, that he needs the American League in wild pitches. If you had asked baseball scouts who has the best "stuff" in baseball, Burnett would definitely get votes, and probably be in the top 5. His fastball used to sit in mid-90s, but his fastball velocity is down to 92.4 (was 94 average in 2009), an 82 mph curve (30% of his pitches), and an 88 mph change-up (not a big enough differential between his fastball, maybe a classification error). His curve-ball is by far his best pitch.
This year Burnett is the same pitcher as he was last year; he's 4-3 (9 starts, 56 1/3 innings), with a 3.99 ERA, and a 1.17 WHIP (due to a very low BAPIP of .235). His K/9 rate, 6.71 is the lowest since 2001, and his BB/9 rate is 3. He's let up 25 HR in each of the past 2 years, and he's let up 9 already, so he is still prone to break down and have a big inning.
Burnett didn't face the Mets last year, and has thrown over 110 innings against them in his career, but 98 innings came before 2005, so I'm not even going to bother posting his stats against the Mets.
It's amazing that he's making 16 million dollars a year, and has never made an all-star team; although his name elicits expectations that he could throw a no-hitter, he really is just an average pitcher at this point.
A.J. Burnett's stuff can be filthy, so filthy in fact, that he needs the American League in wild pitches. If you had asked baseball scouts who has the best "stuff" in baseball, Burnett would definitely get votes, and probably be in the top 5. His fastball used to sit in mid-90s, but his fastball velocity is down to 92.4 (was 94 average in 2009), an 82 mph curve (30% of his pitches), and an 88 mph change-up (not a big enough differential between his fastball, maybe a classification error). His curve-ball is by far his best pitch.
This year Burnett is the same pitcher as he was last year; he's 4-3 (9 starts, 56 1/3 innings), with a 3.99 ERA, and a 1.17 WHIP (due to a very low BAPIP of .235). His K/9 rate, 6.71 is the lowest since 2001, and his BB/9 rate is 3. He's let up 25 HR in each of the past 2 years, and he's let up 9 already, so he is still prone to break down and have a big inning.
Burnett didn't face the Mets last year, and has thrown over 110 innings against them in his career, but 98 innings came before 2005, so I'm not even going to bother posting his stats against the Mets.
It's amazing that he's making 16 million dollars a year, and has never made an all-star team; although his name elicits expectations that he could throw a no-hitter, he really is just an average pitcher at this point.
Friday, May 20, 2011
Mets (20-21) @ Yankees (23-19)
Here is the line-up that will face "The Chief" Freddy Garcia tonight, in the 1st of 6 subway series games this year:
Reyes
Murphy
Beltran
Bay
Martinez (DH)
Turner
Thole
Pridie
Tejada
Dickey P
My Prediction: The Mets are trying to get back to the .500 mark, and I think it will be a race to 5 runs. I'm on the Mets band-wagon tonight, as they win a close one, 5-4. Let's hope that Tejada doesn't try to pull a Luis Castillo...
LET'S GO METS!
Reyes
Murphy
Beltran
Bay
Martinez (DH)
Turner
Thole
Pridie
Tejada
Dickey P
My Prediction: The Mets are trying to get back to the .500 mark, and I think it will be a race to 5 runs. I'm on the Mets band-wagon tonight, as they win a close one, 5-4. Let's hope that Tejada doesn't try to pull a Luis Castillo...
LET'S GO METS!
Scouting Report Freddy Garcia
Freddy is in his 13th big league career (turns 35 next month), and has turned into a "crafty righty", or a serviceable back-of-the-rotation pitcher. He made 2 All-Star teams back in the 2001 and 2002 with the Mariners. His career record is 135-90, with a 4.11 ERA and 1.30 WHIP, but he hasn't posted a sub-4 ERA since 2005 with the White Sox, when he was throwing 91-92 mph. He's a fly-ball pitcher who got victimized by U.S. Cellular Field last year, and it is possible that the same thing will/is happening this year at the New Yankee Stadium (when will people stop saying New?)
Garcia has seen his velocity steadily drop over his career due to shoulder issues (rotator cuff and labral repair in 2007), and his average velocity is now 87 mph (93 mph in 2002). He realizes that's not going to be very successful in the big leagues, so he only throws it 36% of the time, and relies heavily on his 81 mph slider (26%), and his split-finger (20%, 79 mph). He also throws a curve (72 mph), and a change-up (80 mph), to keep hitters guessing and giving them different looks. So far this year, his curve, split and slider have been above average pitches for him.
So far this year, he's 2-3 in 6 starts (1 relief appearance; 36 1/3 innings), and has posted a 3.22 ERA (4.71 FIP), 1.35 WHIP, with an average K/9 (7.4), and below average BB/9 (3.7, but that was mainly due to one game he walked 5 batters). His ERA is so low due to a high strand rate (86.5%, 73% for his career), and a low BAPIP (.269, .282 for his career). He has been prone to the long-ball, allowing 6 home runs, and they've all come in the last 4 games (23 1/3 innings).
He's faced the Mets twice in his career, once in 2003, and once in 2007; if anyone bothers to try to gain any information from these stats, you are wasting your time.
Freddy Garcia would've been a typical Omar Minaya "scrap-metal" pick-up, but he is a lot better on the Yankees as their offense can cover up for some of his mistakes.
Garcia has seen his velocity steadily drop over his career due to shoulder issues (rotator cuff and labral repair in 2007), and his average velocity is now 87 mph (93 mph in 2002). He realizes that's not going to be very successful in the big leagues, so he only throws it 36% of the time, and relies heavily on his 81 mph slider (26%), and his split-finger (20%, 79 mph). He also throws a curve (72 mph), and a change-up (80 mph), to keep hitters guessing and giving them different looks. So far this year, his curve, split and slider have been above average pitches for him.
So far this year, he's 2-3 in 6 starts (1 relief appearance; 36 1/3 innings), and has posted a 3.22 ERA (4.71 FIP), 1.35 WHIP, with an average K/9 (7.4), and below average BB/9 (3.7, but that was mainly due to one game he walked 5 batters). His ERA is so low due to a high strand rate (86.5%, 73% for his career), and a low BAPIP (.269, .282 for his career). He has been prone to the long-ball, allowing 6 home runs, and they've all come in the last 4 games (23 1/3 innings).
He's faced the Mets twice in his career, once in 2003, and once in 2007; if anyone bothers to try to gain any information from these stats, you are wasting your time.
Freddy Garcia would've been a typical Omar Minaya "scrap-metal" pick-up, but he is a lot better on the Yankees as their offense can cover up for some of his mistakes.
Thursday, May 19, 2011
Here is this afternoon's lineup
Livan Hernandez will not throw 40% of his pitches in the strike zone to this lineup
Reyes
Thole
Beltran
Bay
Murphy
Turner
Pridie
Tejada
Gee
My prediction: Mets solve Livan, getting 8+ hits, and Mets sweep the 2 game series, winning 6-4.
LETS GO METS!!
Scouting Livan Hernandez Again
Livan faced the Mets on April 28th, so here's his scouting report, with updated stats. He's 3-5 (9 starts, 57 1/3 innings), 3.92 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, a terrible K/9 (4.55), and average BB/9 (2.8). He threw 8 innings against the Mets and got the win (8 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 1 W, 5 K), but since then has lost 3 straight games, allowing 24 hits in 18 innings.
Livan Hernandez
36 years old (seems like he should be 40)
16th major league season
6'2" 245 pounds
Bats R/Throws R
I widely assume that every single baseball fan knows 36-year old Livan Hernandez, and everyone knows he throws slow, slower and slowest as his pitches these days. I'm not going to highlight his career stats or anything, as he has changed as a pitcher over the past 16 years and the data from his early starts against the Mets are meaningless. His career ERA is 4.38 and last year (3.66) it was under 4.0 since 2005; his WHIP was below 1.5 for the first time since 2005 as well (1.32).
Looking at his pitch data, the only thing he has changed is that he is throwing a few more sliders now than in the past (20% vs 17%) and increased his curveball to 14% this year from 6% in 2009. His fastball averages about 84 mph, change-up 77 mph, slider 77 mph and curve-ball (eephus) 66 mph. Last year his two best pitches were his fastball (?!) and his curve ball.
He only throws strikes 39% of the time, and has a poor swing and miss rate (6%). What makes Livan successful is hitters swing and make contact at 77% of the pitches that he throws outside of the strike zone (league average is 66%), which results in a lot of weak ground balls etc.
This will be his 39th career start versus the Mets. That's a whole lot of starts. He started versus the Mets 5 times in 2010, and had a shiny 1.89 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. Hopefully the Mets are a more disciplined hitting team this year versus last.
Livan Hernandez
36 years old (seems like he should be 40)
16th major league season
6'2" 245 pounds
Bats R/Throws R
I widely assume that every single baseball fan knows 36-year old Livan Hernandez, and everyone knows he throws slow, slower and slowest as his pitches these days. I'm not going to highlight his career stats or anything, as he has changed as a pitcher over the past 16 years and the data from his early starts against the Mets are meaningless. His career ERA is 4.38 and last year (3.66) it was under 4.0 since 2005; his WHIP was below 1.5 for the first time since 2005 as well (1.32).
Looking at his pitch data, the only thing he has changed is that he is throwing a few more sliders now than in the past (20% vs 17%) and increased his curveball to 14% this year from 6% in 2009. His fastball averages about 84 mph, change-up 77 mph, slider 77 mph and curve-ball (eephus) 66 mph. Last year his two best pitches were his fastball (?!) and his curve ball.
He only throws strikes 39% of the time, and has a poor swing and miss rate (6%). What makes Livan successful is hitters swing and make contact at 77% of the pitches that he throws outside of the strike zone (league average is 66%), which results in a lot of weak ground balls etc.
This will be his 39th career start versus the Mets. That's a whole lot of starts. He started versus the Mets 5 times in 2010, and had a shiny 1.89 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. Hopefully the Mets are a more disciplined hitting team this year versus last.
Wednesday, May 18, 2011
Will the Mets play tonight?
This is the lineup that will face Gorzelanny tonight or tomorrow
Reyes
Turner (3B)
Beltran
Bay
Murphy ( even vs a lhp?)
Paulino
Hairston
Tejada
Niese
My prediction: Mets will beat Gorzelanny if/ when they face him, 4-1, behind a strong outing for Niese
3rd time Facing Tom Gorzelanny
Instead of facing J Zimmermann, the Nationals skipped him to keep his innings under control; THANK YOU.
Here is the scouting report on Gorzelanny again. He's 2-2 (7 starts, 42 innings) this year, 3.40 ERA (4.93 FIP), and a ridiculous .189 BAPIP which will regress over the course of the year, and helps him have a 1.02 WHIP. He has his walk rate under 3.0 currently in the small sample size, which is the lowest in his craeer. He's 0-1 in his 2 starts against the Mets this year (11 2/3 innings), and threw a quality game last time on April 27th (6 1/3, 1 run, 5 hits, only 1 walk). On April 9th, He faced the Mets and took the loss, going 5 1/3 innings, allowing 5 runs (2 home runs to Beltran) on 4 hits, and 2 walks, while striking out 8.
Tom Gorzelanny
28 years old
7th major league season
6'2" 207 pounds
Bats L/Throws L
The former Pirates prospect was traded to the Cubs mid-season 2009, and was traded this January for a trio of prospects after the Cubs acquired Matt Garza. He has been wildly inconsistent during his major league career, starting 95 games, (36-37 career record), with a 4.68 ERA and 1.49 WHIP. His best year was in 2007 when he had a 3.88 ERA and won 14 games, but the Pirates made it throw 30+ meaningless innings in September, and he hasn't been the same since (highlighted by a higher BB/9 rate than his K/9 rate in 2008). Last year for the Cubs he threw 136 innings (29 games, 23 starts), with a 4.09 ERA and 1.51 WHIP, due to his high BB/9 rate of 4.5. He can be a useful arm in the back-end of a rotation.
He has a herky-jerky delivery (turns his back to the hitters to create deception), and throws from a high 3/4s arm slot. He throws 88-92 (velocity dropped from 91 to 2009 to 89.8 to 2010), an average change-up that runs down and away from righties (83 mph), and decent slider (usage jumped to 22% last year) and an occasional curveball. He's a fly ball pitcher who has swing and miss stuff (9 K/9 in 2009), but also has inconsistent command and has struggled with walks previously (6 W/9 in 2008). He struck out 10.4/9 versus lefties last year, so expect to see the line-up loaded up with righties.
He's pitched against the Mets 11 times, including 7 starts, and is 2-4 with a 5.70 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. He started once last year against the Mets in April with the Cubs, and threw 5 2/3 innings, allowing 2 runs on 4 hits and 2 walks, while striking out 7, but took the loss.
Here is the scouting report on Gorzelanny again. He's 2-2 (7 starts, 42 innings) this year, 3.40 ERA (4.93 FIP), and a ridiculous .189 BAPIP which will regress over the course of the year, and helps him have a 1.02 WHIP. He has his walk rate under 3.0 currently in the small sample size, which is the lowest in his craeer. He's 0-1 in his 2 starts against the Mets this year (11 2/3 innings), and threw a quality game last time on April 27th (6 1/3, 1 run, 5 hits, only 1 walk). On April 9th, He faced the Mets and took the loss, going 5 1/3 innings, allowing 5 runs (2 home runs to Beltran) on 4 hits, and 2 walks, while striking out 8.
Tom Gorzelanny
28 years old
7th major league season
6'2" 207 pounds
Bats L/Throws L
The former Pirates prospect was traded to the Cubs mid-season 2009, and was traded this January for a trio of prospects after the Cubs acquired Matt Garza. He has been wildly inconsistent during his major league career, starting 95 games, (36-37 career record), with a 4.68 ERA and 1.49 WHIP. His best year was in 2007 when he had a 3.88 ERA and won 14 games, but the Pirates made it throw 30+ meaningless innings in September, and he hasn't been the same since (highlighted by a higher BB/9 rate than his K/9 rate in 2008). Last year for the Cubs he threw 136 innings (29 games, 23 starts), with a 4.09 ERA and 1.51 WHIP, due to his high BB/9 rate of 4.5. He can be a useful arm in the back-end of a rotation.
He has a herky-jerky delivery (turns his back to the hitters to create deception), and throws from a high 3/4s arm slot. He throws 88-92 (velocity dropped from 91 to 2009 to 89.8 to 2010), an average change-up that runs down and away from righties (83 mph), and decent slider (usage jumped to 22% last year) and an occasional curveball. He's a fly ball pitcher who has swing and miss stuff (9 K/9 in 2009), but also has inconsistent command and has struggled with walks previously (6 W/9 in 2008). He struck out 10.4/9 versus lefties last year, so expect to see the line-up loaded up with righties.
He's pitched against the Mets 11 times, including 7 starts, and is 2-4 with a 5.70 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. He started once last year against the Mets in April with the Cubs, and threw 5 2/3 innings, allowing 2 runs on 4 hits and 2 walks, while striking out 7, but took the loss.
Tuesday, May 17, 2011
Scouting Report Ricky Nolasco
2nd time we've faced Nolasco, so this is his scouting report from April 2nd. This year he's 3-0 (8 starts, 53 2/3 innings), with a 3.02 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. He's seen his K/9 rate drop to 7.8, but he's doing a great job limiting walks, 1.5 BB/9. He's thrown a quality start 7 out of his 8 starts, and in his start against the Mets he went 7 innings and allowed 2 runs, let up a HR to D Wright, but took the no decision, as the Mets eventually won 6-4.
Ricky Nolasco
28 years old
6th major league season
Bats R/Throws R
The 28 year-old RHP Ricky Nolasco was drafted in the fourth round by the Cubs in 2001, and was traded by the Cubs in 2005 along with Sergio Mitre and Renyel Pinto for Juan Pierre. Wow. Not a bad deal for the Marlins.
He's in his sixth major league season with the Marlins, and has started 25+ games the past three years. For those who have followed the career of Nolasco, he can be maddeningly inconsistent. He would show signs of dominance, but then he would let up home run after home run. He lead the Marlins in wins last year with a 14-9 record, but finished with a mediocre 4.51 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. He has great K/9 (8.4), BB/9 rates (1.88), and had a swing and a miss rate of 10.5% last year. He also throws a lot of 1st pitch strikes (65% of the time). So why was his ERA just league average? As noted earlier he was victimized by the long ball, allowing 24 Home Runs (1.37 HR/9, when league average is 0.96). So the big question will be is that just randomness, or a product of poor skill and that it will continue to plague Nolasco?
Nolasco throws from a 3/4 arm slot and is a four-pitch pitcher, with a low 90s fastball (88-93 both a two and four seam) and a plus 85-mph slider with sharp and late break, as well as a 75-mph curveball and 85-mph split-finger fastball that he throws from the same release point as his fastball. His slider is one of the best in the majors, and he throws it 25% of the time. His curve-ball is also a plus pitch, but his fastball has gotten him in trouble the past two years.
He's started 17 games against the Mets, and is 5-6 with a 5.46 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. Four of those starts came in 2010, and he was 2-0, with a 3.96 ERA and 1.16
Ricky Nolasco
28 years old
6th major league season
Bats R/Throws R
The 28 year-old RHP Ricky Nolasco was drafted in the fourth round by the Cubs in 2001, and was traded by the Cubs in 2005 along with Sergio Mitre and Renyel Pinto for Juan Pierre. Wow. Not a bad deal for the Marlins.
He's in his sixth major league season with the Marlins, and has started 25+ games the past three years. For those who have followed the career of Nolasco, he can be maddeningly inconsistent. He would show signs of dominance, but then he would let up home run after home run. He lead the Marlins in wins last year with a 14-9 record, but finished with a mediocre 4.51 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. He has great K/9 (8.4), BB/9 rates (1.88), and had a swing and a miss rate of 10.5% last year. He also throws a lot of 1st pitch strikes (65% of the time). So why was his ERA just league average? As noted earlier he was victimized by the long ball, allowing 24 Home Runs (1.37 HR/9, when league average is 0.96). So the big question will be is that just randomness, or a product of poor skill and that it will continue to plague Nolasco?
Nolasco throws from a 3/4 arm slot and is a four-pitch pitcher, with a low 90s fastball (88-93 both a two and four seam) and a plus 85-mph slider with sharp and late break, as well as a 75-mph curveball and 85-mph split-finger fastball that he throws from the same release point as his fastball. His slider is one of the best in the majors, and he throws it 25% of the time. His curve-ball is also a plus pitch, but his fastball has gotten him in trouble the past two years.
He's started 17 games against the Mets, and is 5-6 with a 5.46 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. Four of those starts came in 2010, and he was 2-0, with a 3.96 ERA and 1.16
Brutal Loss
I know I haven't been doing post game recaps lately, but I felt compelled to because it's midnight and the Mets just lost in 11 innings.
1) You can read the recap else where, but I want to once again question Terry Collins' ability to manage in a baseball game. He repeatedly makes me scratch my head and say "WTF?" Who on Earth walks Chris Coughlin to face Hanley?!?
2) I'm sick of Jason Pridie and Hu. I dont want either of these guys on the team. PERIOD.
Hope the game gets rained out tomorrow.
1) You can read the recap else where, but I want to once again question Terry Collins' ability to manage in a baseball game. He repeatedly makes me scratch my head and say "WTF?" Who on Earth walks Chris Coughlin to face Hanley?!?
2) I'm sick of Jason Pridie and Hu. I dont want either of these guys on the team. PERIOD.
Hope the game gets rained out tomorrow.
Monday, May 16, 2011
In case game is played lineup
Here is the lineup that may face stud Josh Johnson:
Reyes
HARRIS (??????) 3B
Beltran
Bay
Murphy
Turner
Pridie
Paulino (Pelf personal catcher?)
Pelfrey
My prediction: hope for a rain out, or else the Mets get shut out.
Josh Johnson
Didn't get to re-post the scouting report from opening day when I said he is a top-5 pitcher in baseball. What has he done since then? Only has a sub 2 ERA, and 0.9 WHIP.
That's all...
Lets hope for rain for the next two days...
Sunday, May 15, 2011
Sunday afternoon Mets at Astros
Here's the lineup that will face "average" A Rodriguez:
Reyes
Thole
Wright
Beltran
Bay
Murphy
Turner
Pridie
Capuano
My prediction: Mets win the rubber game of the series by a score of 5 -2.
LETS GO METS!
Scouting Report Aneury Rodriguez
A Rodriguez was signed by the Rockies out of the Dominican Republic in 2005, and spent his time in their organization in Rookie, Short season and low A ball, and was shipped to Tampa Bay in the Jason Hammel deal. He bounced between AA and AAA with the Rays, and was selected in the 2010 Rule-5 draft by the Astros to compete for the 5th starter job. (he was unprotected in 2009, but did not get selected). His minor league totals were 41-43, with a 4.56 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 7.9 K/9, and 3.2 BB/9.
When you look at A Rodriguez's 'stuff', everything is described as average. He throws 88-94 mph fastball (91 mph average, 65% of his pitches), an average to slightly above average slider (78 mph, 25% of his pitches), with an occasional curve (76 mph), and change (83 mph). He's been described as a two pitch pitcher (fastball and slider), and in his first start in the majors, out of his 83 pitches thrown, 80 were either a fastball or slider. He's a fly-ball pitcher, which once again doesn't bode well at Minute Maid Park.
The Astros started him in the bullpen this year, then the light bulb went off, saying "Why are we trotting 36-year old Nelson Figueroa out there every 5th day, when we have a 23 year old who can possibly pitch for us the next 5-8 years?" So after 9 relief appearances, he has made 2 starts, his first was 5 shutout innings of the Reds; 5 days later he faced the Reds again and didn't fare as well: 5 innings, 5 runs, 8 hits, including 2 home runs. For the year, he's 0-1 (18 innings), 5.50 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 6.5 K/9, and 3.0 BB/9.
He has a ceiling as a #3 starter IF he can develop a reliable curve or change, but that won't likely happen this year. But for a team like the Astros, this is a smart decision rather than Figgy throwing every 5th day.
When you look at A Rodriguez's 'stuff', everything is described as average. He throws 88-94 mph fastball (91 mph average, 65% of his pitches), an average to slightly above average slider (78 mph, 25% of his pitches), with an occasional curve (76 mph), and change (83 mph). He's been described as a two pitch pitcher (fastball and slider), and in his first start in the majors, out of his 83 pitches thrown, 80 were either a fastball or slider. He's a fly-ball pitcher, which once again doesn't bode well at Minute Maid Park.
The Astros started him in the bullpen this year, then the light bulb went off, saying "Why are we trotting 36-year old Nelson Figueroa out there every 5th day, when we have a 23 year old who can possibly pitch for us the next 5-8 years?" So after 9 relief appearances, he has made 2 starts, his first was 5 shutout innings of the Reds; 5 days later he faced the Reds again and didn't fare as well: 5 innings, 5 runs, 8 hits, including 2 home runs. For the year, he's 0-1 (18 innings), 5.50 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 6.5 K/9, and 3.0 BB/9.
He has a ceiling as a #3 starter IF he can develop a reliable curve or change, but that won't likely happen this year. But for a team like the Astros, this is a smart decision rather than Figgy throwing every 5th day.
Saturday, May 14, 2011
Mets only 2 games below .500 Line-up
Here is the line-up that will try to make the Astros look "Happ-less":
Reyes
Turner
Wright
Beltran
Bay
Murphy
Paulino
Hairston
Dickey
My Prediction: Lucky Will extends his record to 4-0, as Mets win 6-1, and go for the sweep tomorrow.
LET'S GO METS!
Reyes
Turner
Wright
Beltran
Bay
Murphy
Paulino
Hairston
Dickey
My Prediction: Lucky Will extends his record to 4-0, as Mets win 6-1, and go for the sweep tomorrow.
LET'S GO METS!
Scouting J.A. Happ again
The 28 year-old was a 3rd round pick in 2004 and was one of the big chips the Phillies traded last year to get Oswalt. He is 20-9 in his major league career, with a 3.42 ERA (but a 4.43 FIP), and 1.32 WHIP. His career BAPIP is .268, thus the reason why the low ERA compared to his FIP.
He's a fly-ball pitcher, who throws from a high 3/4s arm angle and creates deception. His fastball sits between 88-90, with an 84 mph slider, 75 mph curve, and 79 mph change-up. He has increased his curve ball use this year to 14% (from 7%). He doesn't have swing and miss stuff (7.6% career, 5.8% this year), which leads to his below average K/9 rate (6.7 career), and just a mediocre walk rate (3.8 BB/9 career).
This year he's 2-4 in 7 starts (40 2/3 innings), with a 5.75 ERA, 1.52 WHIP due to a 4.2 BB/9 (was over 5 when he faced the Mets April 21). His K/9 is still below average (6.2 K/9), his ground ball rate is a career low 26%, which isn't a recipe for success in the band box known as Minute Maid Park. His BAPIP has regressed to the mean (.306), and he's having trouble stranding runners, thus the elevated ERA.
He faced the Mets on April 21st, and took the loss, only lasting 4 2/3 innings, let up 6 runs, 2 home runs (Wright and Nickeas). He's started 5 games against the Mets (2 relief appearances), and is 1-2 with a 5.17 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. He did not face the Mets in 2010.
He's a back-end of the rotation pitcher, who is not perfect for the Astros ball-park, unless he switches to become more of a ground-ball pitcher.
He's a fly-ball pitcher, who throws from a high 3/4s arm angle and creates deception. His fastball sits between 88-90, with an 84 mph slider, 75 mph curve, and 79 mph change-up. He has increased his curve ball use this year to 14% (from 7%). He doesn't have swing and miss stuff (7.6% career, 5.8% this year), which leads to his below average K/9 rate (6.7 career), and just a mediocre walk rate (3.8 BB/9 career).
This year he's 2-4 in 7 starts (40 2/3 innings), with a 5.75 ERA, 1.52 WHIP due to a 4.2 BB/9 (was over 5 when he faced the Mets April 21). His K/9 is still below average (6.2 K/9), his ground ball rate is a career low 26%, which isn't a recipe for success in the band box known as Minute Maid Park. His BAPIP has regressed to the mean (.306), and he's having trouble stranding runners, thus the elevated ERA.
He faced the Mets on April 21st, and took the loss, only lasting 4 2/3 innings, let up 6 runs, 2 home runs (Wright and Nickeas). He's started 5 games against the Mets (2 relief appearances), and is 1-2 with a 5.17 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. He did not face the Mets in 2010.
He's a back-end of the rotation pitcher, who is not perfect for the Astros ball-park, unless he switches to become more of a ground-ball pitcher.
Friday, May 13, 2011
Mets @ Astros
Although you guys will have your eyes on Bud Norris and the Mets, I'm going to be watching Bryce Harper (Hagerstown Suns) take on the Lakewood Blueclaws tonight.
Here's the Mets line-up
Reyes
Thole
Wright
Beltran
Bay
Murphy
Turner
Pridie
Gee
My Prediction: Bryce Harper has been on fire, but will not hit a home run off of Phillies Prospect J Biddle. Oh wait, the Mets prediction, my bad. Mets win 4-3, and the newest Mets fan Luke will run his record to 3-0.
LET'S GO METS!
Here's the Mets line-up
Reyes
Thole
Wright
Beltran
Bay
Murphy
Turner
Pridie
Gee
My Prediction: Bryce Harper has been on fire, but will not hit a home run off of Phillies Prospect J Biddle. Oh wait, the Mets prediction, my bad. Mets win 4-3, and the newest Mets fan Luke will run his record to 3-0.
LET'S GO METS!
Scouting Report Bud Norris
Bud Norris
26 years old
6'0" 225 pounds
Bats R/Throws R
Quick and dirty scouting report for Bud Norris. He's a fly-ball pitcher who has a heavy fastball (hits 96 mph, but averages 92-93), a hard slider and a change up that fades from away from lefties. His slider is one of the best in baseball (in the company of Josh Johnson and Max Scherzer). It's his big strike out pitch. He made 27 starts (career high) in 2010, and finished with a 9-10 record, and finished with a 4.92 ERA and 1.52 WHIP. He did have a great K/9 (9.3), and 10.9% swing and miss rate, but also walked too many hitters (4.5).
This season, he's started 7 games, and has a 2-2 record (42 2/3 innings pitched), with an outstanding 11 K/9 rate, and a decreased BB/9 (2.95), 3.16 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. His swing and miss % is one of the best in baseball at 12.6%. His first pitch strike % is up from 54 to 64% this year, combined with the significant drop in his BB/9 rate, is why he's having a very good start to the year. He has increased his slider use to 38%, and it is still his best pitch and one of the best sliders in baseball. He's gone 6+ innings in every start since his first start.
He faced the Mets on April 20th at Citi Field, and threw 6 innings, allowed 3 runs on 10 hits (1 HR), 1 walk and striking out 6, garnering a no-decision. He also faced the Mets twice in August 2010, and went 1-1, throwing 12 2/3 innings, allowed 7 runs on 10 hits and 5 walks, while striking out 9.
26 years old
6'0" 225 pounds
Bats R/Throws R
Quick and dirty scouting report for Bud Norris. He's a fly-ball pitcher who has a heavy fastball (hits 96 mph, but averages 92-93), a hard slider and a change up that fades from away from lefties. His slider is one of the best in baseball (in the company of Josh Johnson and Max Scherzer). It's his big strike out pitch. He made 27 starts (career high) in 2010, and finished with a 9-10 record, and finished with a 4.92 ERA and 1.52 WHIP. He did have a great K/9 (9.3), and 10.9% swing and miss rate, but also walked too many hitters (4.5).
This season, he's started 7 games, and has a 2-2 record (42 2/3 innings pitched), with an outstanding 11 K/9 rate, and a decreased BB/9 (2.95), 3.16 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. His swing and miss % is one of the best in baseball at 12.6%. His first pitch strike % is up from 54 to 64% this year, combined with the significant drop in his BB/9 rate, is why he's having a very good start to the year. He has increased his slider use to 38%, and it is still his best pitch and one of the best sliders in baseball. He's gone 6+ innings in every start since his first start.
He faced the Mets on April 20th at Citi Field, and threw 6 innings, allowed 3 runs on 10 hits (1 HR), 1 walk and striking out 6, garnering a no-decision. He also faced the Mets twice in August 2010, and went 1-1, throwing 12 2/3 innings, allowed 7 runs on 10 hits and 5 walks, while striking out 9.
Thursday, May 12, 2011
Hope this game isn't played lineup
Only chance to score may be Jimenez walking in a run with this lineup:
Reyes
Harris
Beltran
Bay
Murphy
Turner
Thole
Pridie
Niese
My prediction: rain out...but if game is played, Mets lose 3-0.
Wednesday, May 11, 2011
Mets Game Rained Out Wednesday
It gives Ike another day to rest up and not tempt him to play. Also gives us Mets fans another day to wait for a potential infield of Murphy 1B, W Harris 2B, Reyes SS, Hu 3B?
Scouting Report Ubaldo Jimenez
Ubaldo Jimenez, 27 years old, was signed as an international free agent out of the Dominican Republic in 2001, and has always possessed a rocket arm and filthy stuff, he just needed to harness it. Well for those who remember his stats through May 26th of last year, (0.88 ERA and 0.95 WHIP), he may have finally harnessed it. He is signed through 2012 (4 yr/10 million) and has 2 options for 2013 and 2014. He is making only 2.8 million this year. He's in his 6th major league season and is 50-38, with a 3.60 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. Last year he made the huge step forward, 19-8, 2.88 ERA and 1.15 WHIP, with a 214 Ks in 221 innings.
Jimenez has a big, powerful arm and a pitcher's body (6'4" 210). He challenges hitters with a fastball that flirts with 100 mph (averaged 96 mph last year, but down to 92.7 this year) and a powerful sinker. He also features a late-breaking slider (15% of the time, 86 mph) and a 12-6 curve-ball (79 mph), along with a solid change-up (88 mph). His fastball was one of the best pitches in baseball lastyear, and his change was outstanding as well. He throws 1st pitch fastball 67% of the time, and has shown he can throw any of his four pitches with two strikes, so good luck if you get behind in the count.
This year he's struggling to find his rhythm, and is 0-2 in 5 starts (26 innings). He had to go on the DL with a finger (cuticle) injury. His K/9 rate is at a career high (9.3 K/9), but he's walking way too many (5.5 BB/9). He also has been having trouble stranding base-runners (62% vs career of 72%), and his ERA shows those two factors, sitting at 5.88, and 1.46 WHIP. He had his best start last outing, going 6 innings and allowed only 1 run while striking out 7, but he walked 5 (the 3rd consecutive game of 4+ walks).
He's made 5 career starts (36 innings) versus the Mets, and is 2-2 with a 2.50 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. Last year he threw a great game, 7 innings, 1 run on 4 hits and 4 walks (2 IBB), while striking out 8, but took the loss 1-0 (Pelfrey threw 7 shutout innings).
He's a front of the rotation starter who is struggling right now. Watch his velocity to see if he has regained his top velocity, or if his mechanics are still off and with it his control and velocity suffers.
Jimenez has a big, powerful arm and a pitcher's body (6'4" 210). He challenges hitters with a fastball that flirts with 100 mph (averaged 96 mph last year, but down to 92.7 this year) and a powerful sinker. He also features a late-breaking slider (15% of the time, 86 mph) and a 12-6 curve-ball (79 mph), along with a solid change-up (88 mph). His fastball was one of the best pitches in baseball lastyear, and his change was outstanding as well. He throws 1st pitch fastball 67% of the time, and has shown he can throw any of his four pitches with two strikes, so good luck if you get behind in the count.
This year he's struggling to find his rhythm, and is 0-2 in 5 starts (26 innings). He had to go on the DL with a finger (cuticle) injury. His K/9 rate is at a career high (9.3 K/9), but he's walking way too many (5.5 BB/9). He also has been having trouble stranding base-runners (62% vs career of 72%), and his ERA shows those two factors, sitting at 5.88, and 1.46 WHIP. He had his best start last outing, going 6 innings and allowed only 1 run while striking out 7, but he walked 5 (the 3rd consecutive game of 4+ walks).
He's made 5 career starts (36 innings) versus the Mets, and is 2-2 with a 2.50 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. Last year he threw a great game, 7 innings, 1 run on 4 hits and 4 walks (2 IBB), while striking out 8, but took the loss 1-0 (Pelfrey threw 7 shutout innings).
He's a front of the rotation starter who is struggling right now. Watch his velocity to see if he has regained his top velocity, or if his mechanics are still off and with it his control and velocity suffers.
Tuesday, May 10, 2011
Mets (15-20) @ Rockies (19-14)
Here is the line-up that will face RHP Jason Hammel for the 2nd time this season:
Reyes
Murphy
Wright
Beltran
Davis
Bay
Paulino
Pridie
Pelfrey
My Prediction: Upon news that a new Mets fan may be born into the world tonight (no not mine), I'm going to predict a Mets loss, as the new child should get used to plenty of disappointment brought onto them by the New York Metropolitians in his/her future. Mets lose 5-3. But congrats on the soon to be Mets fan, and hopefully they will experience a Mets World Championship in their life-time!
LET'S GO METS!
Reyes
Murphy
Wright
Beltran
Davis
Bay
Paulino
Pridie
Pelfrey
My Prediction: Upon news that a new Mets fan may be born into the world tonight (no not mine), I'm going to predict a Mets loss, as the new child should get used to plenty of disappointment brought onto them by the New York Metropolitians in his/her future. Mets lose 5-3. But congrats on the soon to be Mets fan, and hopefully they will experience a Mets World Championship in their life-time!
LET'S GO METS!
Scouting Jason Hammel again
Jason Hammel
6th Major League Season
28 years old
6'6" 200 pounds
Bats R/Throws R
Hammel was drafted by the Rays in 2002, and made his debut in 2006. He was considered a super-two and lost out on the 5th starter job to Jeff Niemann in 2009, hence the reason he was traded to the Rockies. He's 28-32 in his career, with a 5.08 ERA and 1.49 WHIP, but for the Rockies he's 20-17.
Hammel is a four-pitch pitcher, and he throws from a 3/4 arm slot. His location of his fastball has greatly improved, and he throws it between 90-94 (average 93). It does not have a lot of movement. His curveball is a plus pitch (77 mph) and he also throws a sweeping slider (84 mph). He has increased the use of his change-up (85 mph, 14% vs 6% of his pitches last year). His two best pitches this year are his slider and curve. His curveball use increases with 2 strikes, but he's not afraid to throw his slider either in that situation. Hammel has average K/9 rates (7.1 last year), but he doesn't get a lot of swing and misses (7.2% when league average is 8.5%). This is a rare case when those don't match up, and isn't a good sign for him to continue to get a bunch of strike outs. He has cut his walk rates significantly since joining the Rockies (2.14 and 2.32 versus 4+ with the Rays).
He faced the Mets April 11th, his second start of the year, and got a no decision, throwing 6 innings and allowing 4 runs (only 2 earned), on 6 hits, 1 walk and striking out 3. He had faced the Mets in his career once prior to this year (last August), and he threw 7 innings, but let up 8 hits and 4 runs to take the loss.
This year he's 3-1 in 6 starts (37 2/3 innings), 2.63 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. He's been great at leaving runners on base (83%), and that helps to have that great ERA. His FIP is 4.18. He has however, had three straight quality starts 6+ innings and 1 run or less.
A lot of people are still expecting big things out of Hammel (his FIP the past two years have been a solid 3.7 versus he ERAs of 4.33 and 4.81), as he has had very high BAPIP (.326 and .328). He's a solid #4/5 starter that is still learning how to pitch and gain confidence.
6th Major League Season
28 years old
6'6" 200 pounds
Bats R/Throws R
Hammel was drafted by the Rays in 2002, and made his debut in 2006. He was considered a super-two and lost out on the 5th starter job to Jeff Niemann in 2009, hence the reason he was traded to the Rockies. He's 28-32 in his career, with a 5.08 ERA and 1.49 WHIP, but for the Rockies he's 20-17.
Hammel is a four-pitch pitcher, and he throws from a 3/4 arm slot. His location of his fastball has greatly improved, and he throws it between 90-94 (average 93). It does not have a lot of movement. His curveball is a plus pitch (77 mph) and he also throws a sweeping slider (84 mph). He has increased the use of his change-up (85 mph, 14% vs 6% of his pitches last year). His two best pitches this year are his slider and curve. His curveball use increases with 2 strikes, but he's not afraid to throw his slider either in that situation. Hammel has average K/9 rates (7.1 last year), but he doesn't get a lot of swing and misses (7.2% when league average is 8.5%). This is a rare case when those don't match up, and isn't a good sign for him to continue to get a bunch of strike outs. He has cut his walk rates significantly since joining the Rockies (2.14 and 2.32 versus 4+ with the Rays).
He faced the Mets April 11th, his second start of the year, and got a no decision, throwing 6 innings and allowing 4 runs (only 2 earned), on 6 hits, 1 walk and striking out 3. He had faced the Mets in his career once prior to this year (last August), and he threw 7 innings, but let up 8 hits and 4 runs to take the loss.
This year he's 3-1 in 6 starts (37 2/3 innings), 2.63 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. He's been great at leaving runners on base (83%), and that helps to have that great ERA. His FIP is 4.18. He has however, had three straight quality starts 6+ innings and 1 run or less.
A lot of people are still expecting big things out of Hammel (his FIP the past two years have been a solid 3.7 versus he ERAs of 4.33 and 4.81), as he has had very high BAPIP (.326 and .328). He's a solid #4/5 starter that is still learning how to pitch and gain confidence.
Monday, May 9, 2011
Mets @ Rockies. Game Time 8:40
Here is the lineup that will face the young tough RHP J Chacin:
Reyes
Murphy
Wright
Beltran
Davis
Bay (dropped to 6th)
Pridie
Thole
Capuano
My prediction: Chacin throws well, 7 innings, 2 runs, and Mets lose 4-2.
LET'S GO METS!
Scouting Report Jhoulys Chacin
Jhoulys Chacin
23 years old
3rd Major League Season (22 starts coming into this year)
6'3" 215 pounds
Bats R/Throws R
The 23 year old righty was signed as an amateur free agent in 2004 out of Venezuela, and was the Rockies top pitching prospect two years ago. He shuffled between the rotation and the bullpen last year, but during his 21 starts, he had a 2.98 ERA, and struck out a batter an inning. The biggest problem he had was controlling his nerves and his command suffered, walking 4 per 9 innings.
Chacin doesn't have any plus-plus pitches, but has 4 above average pitches. His fastball is 90-91 mph and it is his worst pitch. His slider is 82 mph, and has been his best pitch thus far in the majors, and he throws it 18% of the time. His curve is also above average, 78 mph, and a change-up 83 mph. His swing and miss rate is down from 10.8% last year to 9.7% (but it's still above league average), and his K/9 rate reflects that this year, 7 K/9, down from 9 K/9. He doesn't throw many strikes, especially 1st pitch strikes ( <50% this year, even though he throws 1st pitch fastball 75% of the time), and only 42% of his pitches are strikes, but surprisingly his walk rate is down so far in a small sample size this year to 2.85 BB/9 (career average is 4+). He has benefited this year from becoming more of a ground ball pitcher, and is generating 60%, up from 46 and 47% in 2009 and 2010.
Chacin is 4-2 this year in 6 starts, with a 2.85 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. He has given up a bunch of home runs which is surprising (6 in 41 innings, when he gave up 10 in 141 last year), and they have all come in the past 3 games (2 home runs each game).
Chacin has not started a game against the Mets, but threw 1 inning of scoreless relief in 2009.
Chacin is another good young pitcher who will give the Mets trouble (it seems like the Mets have been facing top pitchers for the past 2 weeks straight!)
23 years old
3rd Major League Season (22 starts coming into this year)
6'3" 215 pounds
Bats R/Throws R
The 23 year old righty was signed as an amateur free agent in 2004 out of Venezuela, and was the Rockies top pitching prospect two years ago. He shuffled between the rotation and the bullpen last year, but during his 21 starts, he had a 2.98 ERA, and struck out a batter an inning. The biggest problem he had was controlling his nerves and his command suffered, walking 4 per 9 innings.
Chacin doesn't have any plus-plus pitches, but has 4 above average pitches. His fastball is 90-91 mph and it is his worst pitch. His slider is 82 mph, and has been his best pitch thus far in the majors, and he throws it 18% of the time. His curve is also above average, 78 mph, and a change-up 83 mph. His swing and miss rate is down from 10.8% last year to 9.7% (but it's still above league average), and his K/9 rate reflects that this year, 7 K/9, down from 9 K/9. He doesn't throw many strikes, especially 1st pitch strikes ( <50% this year, even though he throws 1st pitch fastball 75% of the time), and only 42% of his pitches are strikes, but surprisingly his walk rate is down so far in a small sample size this year to 2.85 BB/9 (career average is 4+). He has benefited this year from becoming more of a ground ball pitcher, and is generating 60%, up from 46 and 47% in 2009 and 2010.
Chacin is 4-2 this year in 6 starts, with a 2.85 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. He has given up a bunch of home runs which is surprising (6 in 41 innings, when he gave up 10 in 141 last year), and they have all come in the past 3 games (2 home runs each game).
Chacin has not started a game against the Mets, but threw 1 inning of scoreless relief in 2009.
Chacin is another good young pitcher who will give the Mets trouble (it seems like the Mets have been facing top pitchers for the past 2 weeks straight!)
Sunday, May 8, 2011
Mother's Day Line-up
Happy Mother's Day to my mom and to all the Mother's out there; thank you for all that you do and you enjoy a beautiful day.
Here is the line-up that may get shut-out versus Clayton "the claw" Kershaw:
Reyes
Turner (love the respect TC has for Jerry Manuel and hitting 2B 2nd)
Wright
Bay
Paulino
Davis
Hairston
Pridie
Dickey
My Prediction: Tough day to give Beltran a day off, but he obviously needs one as he's played a lot more than we could've expected early on. Wonder if K-Rod is available to pitch the 4th straight day? I was tempted to give the Mets the sweep, but based on this line-up, the Mets lose 3-0.
LET'S GO METS AND HAPPY MOTHER'S DAY!
Here is the line-up that may get shut-out versus Clayton "the claw" Kershaw:
Reyes
Turner (love the respect TC has for Jerry Manuel and hitting 2B 2nd)
Wright
Bay
Paulino
Davis
Hairston
Pridie
Dickey
My Prediction: Tough day to give Beltran a day off, but he obviously needs one as he's played a lot more than we could've expected early on. Wonder if K-Rod is available to pitch the 4th straight day? I was tempted to give the Mets the sweep, but based on this line-up, the Mets lose 3-0.
LET'S GO METS AND HAPPY MOTHER'S DAY!
Scouting Report Clayton Kershaw
May 30th, 2008 (2nd major league start)
Clayton Kershaw
23 years old
6'3" 220 pounds
Bats L/Throws L
The southpaw from Texas was drafted out of high school as the 7th pick in the 2006 draft, and he has lived up to the hype, blowing through the minor leagues (10+ K/9), and debuting in 2008 just after his 20th birthday. He's 29-26 for his career, with a 3.19 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. Last year, only his 3rd year in the majors, he had a 2.91 ERA. I saw him in his 2nd major league start at Shea Stadium, but he is a much different pitcher from when he first came up.
Kershaw throws over-the-top with an excellent downhill angle. He was made famous for his "public enemy #1" (curve ball) by Vin Scully in Spring Training, but he rarely throws it for a strike and batters have taken notice. He throws his fastball 70% of his pitches and it averages 93 mph. His slider is his 2nd best pitch, throwing it 23% and 83 mph. There is some talk that Kershaw is throwing two sliders, one sweeping slider 81-82 mph, and another hard slider, almost a cutter, that's 86 mph. Something to keep an eye on. His curveball is 73 mph, but he throws it only 6% of the time now. He will throw one or two change-ups a game (84 mph). He gets swing and misses around 10%, blowing away the league average of 8.4%. He throws 1st pitch fastball 80% of the time, and relies on his fastball and his slider as his strikeout pitch, although you need to be on the lookout for his curve 0-2 and 1-2.
Kershaw made a big step forward last year in transitioning to his slider from his curve as his best 2ndry pitch, and it paid immediate dividends, as he was able to throw less pitches and more innings (204 innings), and he wasn't "abused". He also cut his BB/9 rate down to 3.6, while striking out more than a batter an inning.
This year, Kershaw is 3-3 in 7 starts (45 innings), with a 3.38 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. He's striking out a hitter an inning, and also lowered his BB/9 to <3 (career average is 4). He has let up a lot more home runs than the previous two year (6 in 45 innings; he let up 13 in 200+ innings last year), including a home run in each of his last 4 starts.
For his career, he's 2-0 versus the Mets (3 starts), and in his last two starts against us (2009 and 2010), he has 14 shutout innings, for a 2.04 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. His only hiccup was when he lasted only 3 2/3 inning versus the Mets at Shea in his 2nd major league start in 2008.
Kershaw is an ace, and is only 23 years old (4 years younger than Lincecum, J Johnson, C Hamels, Jimenez). The Mets will have their hands full with him.
Saturday, May 7, 2011
Saturday Night Mets vs Dodgers
Mets face Jon Garland who is widely referred to as a "league-average-innings-eater":
Reyes
Murphy
Wright
Beltran
Bay
Davis
Pridie (i still think Thole should be hitting here)
Thole
Young
My prediction: although I don't have faith in CY, I have faith the Mets score 4+ vs Garland in 6 innings, so Mets win 6-4, and the Mets will have a 3-game winning steak.
LET'S GO METS!
Scouting Report Jon Garland
The 31-year old RHP was a 1st round draft pick in 1997 by the Cubs and has been in the majors since 2000, has made 30+ starts every year since 2002, and averaged 200+ innings a year. He’s one of two pitchers (M Buehrle) that has thrown 190+ innings every year since 2002. He has signed three consecutive one-year deals; in 2008 he signed a one year deal with Arizona for 7.25 million. 2009 he signed for 5.3 million with the Padres, and this off-season he re-signed with the Dodgers for 5 million. He is considered a “league-average-innings-eater”. His comps are Kyle Lohse and Jason Marquis. For his career, he's 132-116, with a 4.32 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. Last year, in the comfy confines of Petco Park, he had a very good statistical year, with a 3.47 ERA, the lowest of his career. But in Petco/on the Padres, he benefited from outstanding infield defense (BAPIP on his ground balls was .215, when league average was .235), and he also wasn't afraid of elevating his fastball and allowing home runs due to the dimensions of Petco, which allowed him to post the best K/9 numbers of his career (6.1).
He throws a fastball (90 mph) 55% of the time, both two and four-seam, a slider (84 mph), cutter (15% of time), an occasional curve-ball (76 mph) and an improved change-up (80 mph). He has added a split-finger this year, and throws it 14% of the time. He's decreased his cutter use to 6% (small sample size so far in 2011), and increased his curveball usage (14%). He throws first pitch strike 63% of the time, and as noted with his K/9 rate being below average, he doesn't generate a lot of swings and misses (7.7% this year, 7% career average). On an 0-2 or 1-2 count, he tries to use his splitter as his strike-out pitch.
This season he's made 4 starts, and is 1-2, with the 1 win being a complete game versus the Braves, and a 3.81 ERA and shiny 1.04 WHIP (due to an unsustainable .219 BAPIP). His K/9 rate is similar to last year (6.2), and he's lowered his BB/9 (2.4).
He’s started against the Mets four times in his career, threw 27 innings and is 1-1 with a 3.00 ERA, and 1.29 WHIP. Last year he faced the Mets once and took the loss, going 6 innings, and let up 3 runs on 8 hits and 2 walks, while striking out only 2.
He's still the "league average innings-eater", which isn't an insult, but he's not the pitcher that had a sub 3.50 ERA last year. He is valuable as few pitchers can guarantee to toe the rubber 30+ starts and throw 200 innings year in and year out.
He throws a fastball (90 mph) 55% of the time, both two and four-seam, a slider (84 mph), cutter (15% of time), an occasional curve-ball (76 mph) and an improved change-up (80 mph). He has added a split-finger this year, and throws it 14% of the time. He's decreased his cutter use to 6% (small sample size so far in 2011), and increased his curveball usage (14%). He throws first pitch strike 63% of the time, and as noted with his K/9 rate being below average, he doesn't generate a lot of swings and misses (7.7% this year, 7% career average). On an 0-2 or 1-2 count, he tries to use his splitter as his strike-out pitch.
This season he's made 4 starts, and is 1-2, with the 1 win being a complete game versus the Braves, and a 3.81 ERA and shiny 1.04 WHIP (due to an unsustainable .219 BAPIP). His K/9 rate is similar to last year (6.2), and he's lowered his BB/9 (2.4).
He’s started against the Mets four times in his career, threw 27 innings and is 1-1 with a 3.00 ERA, and 1.29 WHIP. Last year he faced the Mets once and took the loss, going 6 innings, and let up 3 runs on 8 hits and 2 walks, while striking out only 2.
He's still the "league average innings-eater", which isn't an insult, but he's not the pitcher that had a sub 3.50 ERA last year. He is valuable as few pitchers can guarantee to toe the rubber 30+ starts and throw 200 innings year in and year out.
Friday, May 6, 2011
Game 32: Mets vs Dodgers
Here is the line-up that will try to beat RHP H Kuroda:
Reyes
Murphy
Wright
Beltran
Bay
Davis
Pridie
Thole (behind Pridie? that is going to give him more confidence/better pitches to hit? bad job by TC)
Niese
My Prediction: It's going to be a race to 3 runs, and I'll say the Mets win 3-2.
LET'S GO METS!
Reyes
Murphy
Wright
Beltran
Bay
Davis
Pridie
Thole (behind Pridie? that is going to give him more confidence/better pitches to hit? bad job by TC)
Niese
My Prediction: It's going to be a race to 3 runs, and I'll say the Mets win 3-2.
LET'S GO METS!
Scouting Report Hiroki Kuroda
The 36-year old is in his 4th year (re-signed this year for 1 year, $12 million dollars) in the United States after coming over from Japan. Rarely walks anyone (2.1 W/9), and rarely lets up HR ( < 1 HR/9), which is a very successful combination. Ground-ball pitcher that doesn't strike out a ton of hitters (6.45 K/9 for his career, but saw it rise to 7.3 last year). He is a very solid middle of the rotation pitcher when healthy, and had the 9th highest swing and miss % last year.
Kuroda uses a high 3/4s delivery, with a pause at the top of his delivery to gather himself/disrupt the hitters timing. He throws 89-92 mph fastballs to both sides of the plate, has two different sliders (one has a tight sharp break, the other is more of a slurve), and uses a split-finger fastball as his strikeout pitch. He has increased the use of his curveball to 5%, and gets 34% of swings at balls out of the strike zone, which is pretty impressive (average is 28%).
This year, Kuroda is 3-2 with 6 starts (40 2/3 innings), with his usual pinpoint control (1.55 BB/9), but he has seen a slight increase in home runs in this small sample size, but he has a 3.10 ERA, and 1.18 WHIP. He's gone at least 5 innings in all his starts, and 7+ in 3 starts.
In his career versus the Mets, he's 1-3 with a 5.18 ERA, but that's mostly due to 2008 and 2009 starts. Lats year he faced the Mets twice, and pitched very well (14 innings, 2 earned runs, and 1.00 WHIP), but was 1-1 since Johan dominated the Dodgers in his first start.
Kuroda uses a high 3/4s delivery, with a pause at the top of his delivery to gather himself/disrupt the hitters timing. He throws 89-92 mph fastballs to both sides of the plate, has two different sliders (one has a tight sharp break, the other is more of a slurve), and uses a split-finger fastball as his strikeout pitch. He has increased the use of his curveball to 5%, and gets 34% of swings at balls out of the strike zone, which is pretty impressive (average is 28%).
This year, Kuroda is 3-2 with 6 starts (40 2/3 innings), with his usual pinpoint control (1.55 BB/9), but he has seen a slight increase in home runs in this small sample size, but he has a 3.10 ERA, and 1.18 WHIP. He's gone at least 5 innings in all his starts, and 7+ in 3 starts.
In his career versus the Mets, he's 1-3 with a 5.18 ERA, but that's mostly due to 2008 and 2009 starts. Lats year he faced the Mets twice, and pitched very well (14 innings, 2 earned runs, and 1.00 WHIP), but was 1-1 since Johan dominated the Dodgers in his first start.
Thursday, May 5, 2011
Awful mets lineup vs giants
Completely unacceptable lineup for the Metsies vs Jonathon Sanchez:
Reyes
Hu (?!?¿?!)
Wright
Beltran
Bay
Davis
Paulino
Hairston
Palfrey
My prediction: want to say Mets will win 4-3, but after seeing the lineup,i reverse it to 4-3 loss and Mets are swept.
Get a clue Terry Collins, Hu is not a major league hitter, let alone a 2-hitter. AWFUL MANAGING.
Scouting Report Jonathan Sanchez
This 28 year old left-hander was drafted in the 27th round of the 2004 draft by the Giants out of Ohio Dominican University, thinking that they could fix his mechanics. He dominated minor league hitters from the start, striking out close to 12 per 9 innings. He climbed up the prospect rankings, peaking at #2 on baseball america's list before the 2007 season. He continued to get the strike-outs once he got to the majors (9.28 K/9 for his career), but he has also walked > 4.5/9. He made history in 2009 when he threw a no-hitter in July, and over his next 10 starts he turned in six quality starts, 75 strikeouts versus 27 walks in 59 2/3 innings. But then he reverted back to his inconsistent self, and in the last five starts of 2009, he failed to get out of the sixth inning, allowing 36 base-runners and six home runs in 25 innings pitched. In 2010, he had similar stats to his 2009 season, but he benefited greatly from the Giants defense, as he saw his BAPIP down to .252, and as a result his ERA dropped to 3.07, and he lead the majors in hits per nine (6.6 H/9).
He has a live arm and throws from a 3/4 arm slot. He has a sneaky fast 91-94 mph fastball, and compliments it with a biting slider (80 mph) and a split finger/change up (80 mph) that runs down and away from righties. Scuffles with his mechanics and command at times and loses focus with adversity (sound like Ollie P??). He's a fly-ball pitcher, who misses a ton of bats (9.5 K/9 for career, 11.0 K/9 this year), but also walks a bunch (4.64 W/9 career, 5.4 W/9 for the year). His fastball has been his only plus pitch. He throws 1st pitch fastball 69% of the time and he still leans on his slider with two strikes, throwing it 51% of the time when the count is 1-2.
This year he's 2-1 in 6 starts, with a 2.73 ERA and 1.33 WHIP, largely due to his terrible walk rate. He's gone 5 innings in each of the starts, but the longest outing has been 6 1/3, and has thrown 100+ pitches only twice. He did throw 30+ innings more than his previous high last year during the regular season, and he also threw 20 innings in the post-season, so maybe this is why the Giants are limiting his workload, or is it because he walks too many hitters?
For his career against the Mets, he's 2-1 in 6 starts with a 3.89 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. He faced the Mets twice last year, including a seven inning start on May 7th against the Mets, allowing four earned runs, while walking only one, but let up three home runs (two versus Ike Davis, one vs Barajas).He threw 7 innings against the Mets in his June start, and got a no-decision in his quality start, but did let up a home run to David Wright.
Multiple scouts have made the comp to OLIVER PEREZ (when Perez actually had good stuff). For those reading at home, that's not good. Overall he has filthy stuff, but can lose focus/mechanics/command quickly.
He has a live arm and throws from a 3/4 arm slot. He has a sneaky fast 91-94 mph fastball, and compliments it with a biting slider (80 mph) and a split finger/change up (80 mph) that runs down and away from righties. Scuffles with his mechanics and command at times and loses focus with adversity (sound like Ollie P??). He's a fly-ball pitcher, who misses a ton of bats (9.5 K/9 for career, 11.0 K/9 this year), but also walks a bunch (4.64 W/9 career, 5.4 W/9 for the year). His fastball has been his only plus pitch. He throws 1st pitch fastball 69% of the time and he still leans on his slider with two strikes, throwing it 51% of the time when the count is 1-2.
This year he's 2-1 in 6 starts, with a 2.73 ERA and 1.33 WHIP, largely due to his terrible walk rate. He's gone 5 innings in each of the starts, but the longest outing has been 6 1/3, and has thrown 100+ pitches only twice. He did throw 30+ innings more than his previous high last year during the regular season, and he also threw 20 innings in the post-season, so maybe this is why the Giants are limiting his workload, or is it because he walks too many hitters?
For his career against the Mets, he's 2-1 in 6 starts with a 3.89 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. He faced the Mets twice last year, including a seven inning start on May 7th against the Mets, allowing four earned runs, while walking only one, but let up three home runs (two versus Ike Davis, one vs Barajas).He threw 7 innings against the Mets in his June start, and got a no-decision in his quality start, but did let up a home run to David Wright.
Multiple scouts have made the comp to OLIVER PEREZ (when Perez actually had good stuff). For those reading at home, that's not good. Overall he has filthy stuff, but can lose focus/mechanics/command quickly.
Wednesday, May 4, 2011
Lincecum is Filthy. Mets lose
I got the prediction right, a 2-0 Mets loss, but that won't help me sleep any better tonight. Lincecum struck out 12, and the bullpen struck out 4 in 2 innings, for a grand total of 16 strikeouts. You aren't going to win many games that way.
Capuano did throw a solid game in his defense, but you can't win a game when you get shut out.
Mets try to avoid being swept tomorrow afternoon, 1:10 start.
Capuano did throw a solid game in his defense, but you can't win a game when you get shut out.
Mets try to avoid being swept tomorrow afternoon, 1:10 start.
Weather permitting mets vs giants
Here is the Mets line-up that may get no hit by Tiny Tim Lincecum:
Reyes
Murphy
Wright
Beltran
Davis
Harris
Paulino
Pridie
Capuano
My prediction: mets lose 2-0, and fall to 6 games under .500.
Let's Go Mets, prove me wrong.
J Mejia Injury/Impending Surgery
I've been wanting to comment on the Mejia injury since it was first revealed he has a torn MCL (also known as UCL, ulnar collateral ligament), and will need a Tommy John Surgery, but haven't had time until now.
Most people have been focusing/asking if the Mets caused this to occur because he was forced into a reliever role last year in order to try and save Omar and Jerry's job, but that is not the cause in my opinion.
There are a couple of mechanisms of injury for a UCL tear, with the majority of incidences are a gradual wear and tear as a result of throwing a # of pitches over a career. The other way the injury occurs is one traumatic pitch; from the quotes I have read and seen, along with the sudden increase in edema after his last start, would lead me to believe that it did occur in his last start versus a gradual wear and tear. Either way, it doesn't change the rehabilitation or the surgery. A completely torn UCL is a completely torn UCL, and needs to be repaired surgically if the player wants to return to prior level of function.
So why are we talking about this if there is nothing that is going to change? Some people will say, "People come back and throw harder after Tommy John, this isn't such a bad thing for Mejia."
The reason we are talking about this is that plenty was made about Mejia's poor mechanics last year and this year, and that I was very concerned he would be able to hold up long term without a serious injury. My first thought would be that he would injure his shoulder due to the hyperabduction and lack of use of his front side, but it turned out he had a greater weakness in the kinetic chain, which turns out to be his elbow.
While I never wish a player to be injured, it does help validate the need for the Mets to correct this young man's mechanics after the surgery to prevent another cascade of injuries in the future. What I mean by this is that a lot of the post-surgical rehabilitation is done to make sure the elbow is strong, if he continues to impose the same stresses he did prior to the surgery, something else along the kinetic chain(body) will begin to break down.
Mejia has electric stuff, and has a chance to be a front-line starter if he can healthy. But this will delay is potential impact as a major starter from 2012 to 2013 at the earliest (it's a 12 month recovery, but he will not be ready to contribute at the major league level right at that 12 month mark).
Good luck, get the surgery done sooner rather than later (with Dr. Altchek), and work hard through the rehab Mr. Mejia. If you have any questions, just let me know.
There are a couple of mechanisms of injury for a UCL tear, with the majority of incidences are a gradual wear and tear as a result of throwing a # of pitches over a career. The other way the injury occurs is one traumatic pitch; from the quotes I have read and seen, along with the sudden increase in edema after his last start, would lead me to believe that it did occur in his last start versus a gradual wear and tear. Either way, it doesn't change the rehabilitation or the surgery. A completely torn UCL is a completely torn UCL, and needs to be repaired surgically if the player wants to return to prior level of function.
So why are we talking about this if there is nothing that is going to change? Some people will say, "People come back and throw harder after Tommy John, this isn't such a bad thing for Mejia."
 |
| Hyperabduction; you should be able to see his arm, not for it to be behind him |
 |
| Since he's not utilizing his front side, he's putting all the stress on his shoulder and elbow. |
Mejia has electric stuff, and has a chance to be a front-line starter if he can healthy. But this will delay is potential impact as a major starter from 2012 to 2013 at the earliest (it's a 12 month recovery, but he will not be ready to contribute at the major league level right at that 12 month mark).
Good luck, get the surgery done sooner rather than later (with Dr. Altchek), and work hard through the rehab Mr. Mejia. If you have any questions, just let me know.
Scouting Report Tim Lincecum
This 26-year old superstar (turns 27 in June) is freakishly good. He already has two Cy Young Awards and has been elected to the all star team four straight years, and was a key part of the Giants Championship last year. Keep in mind this is only his 5th big league season. His career record is 58-30, with a 3.03 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 10.06 K/9, and 3.23 BB/9. In the post season, he was 4-1, 2.43 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 10.46 K/9, 2.19 BB/9. WOW
He has a one-of-a kind delivery, in which he delivers straight over the top. He has an extremely long stride (even longer than Johan's), and he features three plus pitches. Even though he had lost 3 mph, last year, he increased it 1.6 mph from last year, and is back up to averaging 93 mph, 2nd highest since his MLB debut. He is now featuring a two-seamer, (which has resulted in an increase in his ground ball rate to an unfair 58%). He also throws a plus curve, and a plus-plus change, that probably is the best in baseball. He throws his change-up 25% of the time. The craziest stat is that he gets a 34% swing and miss rate on his change-up (league average is 12%). He has increased his use of a slider this year to 13% (83 mph), from 8% last year. He gets a ton of swing and misses outside of the strike zone, which helps to maintain his K/9 > 10, and his walk /9 < 3.
He's started 5 games against the Mets in his career, and is 1-1 with 3.71 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 34 innings pitched, 33 ks. Last year he faced the Mets twice, 15 innings, 1.20 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, including a complete game shutout in July.
This year he's made 6 starts, he's 2-3 (40 1/3 innings), with a 2.90 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. In his 3 losses, the Giants have scored a total of 3 runs. He's struck out 10+ hitters twice, and gotten 10+ ground ball outs 4 times.
He is one of the top three pitchers in baseball, and will be very difficult to beat (if you couldn't figure that out from all those numbers above).
Tuesday, May 3, 2011
Mets vs Giants
Mets face the "feel good story" Ryan Vogelsong. Here is the line up:
Reyes
Murphy
Wright
Beltran
Davis
Duda (Bay on paternity leave)
Thole
Pridie
Dickey
My prediction: Dickey throws well against a bad Giants offense, and Mets win 4-2.
LETS GO METS !
Scouting report Ryan Vogelsong
Scouting report on Ryan Vogelsong is being posted late today due to time constraints, so here is a quick and dirty one.
He last pitched in the majors in 2006 for the Pirates, at which point he had a 5.70 ERA, and took his services over to Japan. He came back stateside last year, but didn't appear in an MLB game.
He's a feel good story, and made the roster when Barry Zito went on the dl. He made a quality start versus the Pirates, striking out 8.
He's a 4 pitch pitcher, fastball (90 mph), an 87 mph cutter (22%), a curve and change-up. His cutter usage has increased the most since his last appearance in the majors.
Monday, May 2, 2011
Mets win in 14!
Paulino with the game mvp, as he had 5 hits, including the game winning rbi.
Mets win 2-1, and I'm going to bed finally.
God bless the USA, and thank you to all our troops who protect us daily
Sunday, May 1, 2011
Sunday Night Mets at Phillies
I'll be listening to Howie and Wayne as the Mets try to salvage the series finale vs lefty ace Cliff Lee.
Reyes
Turner
Wright
Beltran
Bay
Davis
Paulino
Hairston
Young
My prediction: Cliff Lee throws a gem and Mets get swept 5-1.
LETS GO METS! HOPE YOU PROVE ME WRONG.
Scouting Report Cliff Lee
Cliff Lee
32 years old
10th major league season
6'2" 190 pounds
Bats L/Throws L
The highest his ERA has been the past 3 years is 3.22 (lowest was 2.54).
The highest his WHIP has been the past 3 years is 1.25 (lowest was 1.00).
He's thrown 210+ innings each of the past 3 years.
And that doesn't mention his 10 career post-season starts, where he's 7-2, with a 2.13 ERA and 0.82 WHIP. Don't forget his K/9 rate in the post-season was 9.5, and his BB/9 rate was 0.95. Re-read those numbers again.
He shocked the baseball world this off-season by returning to the Phillies, and leaving money on the table when he spurned the Yankees offer.
Lee is a 4-pitch pitcher with outstanding control. He has a 92 mph fastball, an outstanding cutter (86 mph), a 75 mph curve, and an 84 mph plus change-up. His fastball is one of the best in baseball, and he has increased his cutter use this year to 24% (from 6% in 2008). He throws 1st pitch strikes 72% of the time, and has a 10.5% swing and a miss rate.
This year Lee is 2-2 with 5 starts and 4.18 ERA, 1.05 WHIP. He's given up a bunch of home runs this year (4 in 32 innings, when last year he let up 16 in 212 innings). He's had 3 starts of 11+ Ks, and has not walked more than 1 hitter in a game. He's pitching as well as he has the past 3 years besides the sudden spike in home runs, so don't look at his ERA and think he's having a bad year.
He's still an ace that will make 21+ million next year, and 25 million the following 3 years.
32 years old
10th major league season
6'2" 190 pounds
Bats L/Throws L
The highest his ERA has been the past 3 years is 3.22 (lowest was 2.54).
The highest his WHIP has been the past 3 years is 1.25 (lowest was 1.00).
He's thrown 210+ innings each of the past 3 years.
And that doesn't mention his 10 career post-season starts, where he's 7-2, with a 2.13 ERA and 0.82 WHIP. Don't forget his K/9 rate in the post-season was 9.5, and his BB/9 rate was 0.95. Re-read those numbers again.
He shocked the baseball world this off-season by returning to the Phillies, and leaving money on the table when he spurned the Yankees offer.
Lee is a 4-pitch pitcher with outstanding control. He has a 92 mph fastball, an outstanding cutter (86 mph), a 75 mph curve, and an 84 mph plus change-up. His fastball is one of the best in baseball, and he has increased his cutter use this year to 24% (from 6% in 2008). He throws 1st pitch strikes 72% of the time, and has a 10.5% swing and a miss rate.
This year Lee is 2-2 with 5 starts and 4.18 ERA, 1.05 WHIP. He's given up a bunch of home runs this year (4 in 32 innings, when last year he let up 16 in 212 innings). He's had 3 starts of 11+ Ks, and has not walked more than 1 hitter in a game. He's pitching as well as he has the past 3 years besides the sudden spike in home runs, so don't look at his ERA and think he's having a bad year.
He's still an ace that will make 21+ million next year, and 25 million the following 3 years.
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