Scouting Report, RHP Josh Johnson

The 26-year old RHP is in his 6th major league season, and last year took a big step to realizing his potential and becoming an ace of the staff, and one of the best pitchers in baseball. He was a 4th round pick out of high school in 2002. His career has been slowed by injuries (Tommy John surgery cut short his 2007 and 2008 season), and he has only started 20+ games twice in his career (2006 and 2009). Last year he was 15-5, with a 3.23 ERA and 1.16 WHIP, and 22-6 since returning from Tommy John Surgery. He has averaged > 8 k/9 and < 3.3 W/9 for his career, while also posting an impressive ground ball %. For his career versus the Mets, he is 7-1 in 10 starts, with a 2.69 ERA and 1.15 WHIP.

Josh Johnson is 6'7" and throws straight over the top, almost throwing straight down to the hitter. He is a three pitch pitcher, throwing a 93-97 mph fastball, an 88 mph slider with sharp and late bite (28% of pitches), and an occassional 86 mph change-up that sinks away from left-handers. He has increased his use of the slider over the past few years, and his velocity increased after coming back from Tommy John Surgery (pre-surgery he was throwing 92 mph).

This year Johnson has continued to throw well, as he is 3-1 with a 3.35 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 47 strike outs in 43 innings. He has pitched 6+ innings in his last five starts. When he faced the Mets on Opening Day, he was battling the after-effects of the flu and didn't pitch effectively (5 innings, 4 runs, 5 hits, 4 walks, 3 ks), and took his first loss versus the Mets in his career. He has also hit .267 at the plate this year, including 4 RBIs.

Daniel Murphy Update

According to rotoworld, D Murphy played 1B in an extended spring training game today, but needed a pinch runner any time he reached base.


My take: It was 6 weeks from yesterday that he originally hurt his knee in a run down. It was diagnosed as a grade 1 MCL, with a time-frame of 2-6 weeks.

Just sayin'...

Jerry Manuel Post-Game re: Pelfrey

Mike Pelfrey threw the ball well, ‘he gave us a chance to win.’

5 2/3 innings (119 pitches), four runs, 10 base runners, and requiring the bullpen to get 10 outs (use four relief pitchers) is throwing the ball well??

You have some high standards Jerry...

And the Mets lose 2 of 3 to the Nats

Mets lose a very tough game, 6-4, as they are still winless in the rubber game of the series this year.

Big Pelf was terrible (5 2/3 innings, four runs, 10 base-runners) , and K-Rod let up a 2-run HR to R. Bernadina in the 9th inning (his 2nd HR of the game). In 110+ major league at bats prior to this game, he had zero career home runs. In fact, he had only 47 home runs in 2667 at bats in the minor leagues (one every 56.7 HR/at bat in case you were wondering). He was the Nationals #22 prospect according to Baseball America and he was a "Nyjer Morgan type player", with plus-plus speed and a good defensive player.

This loss practically negates the big come from behind win last night.

The 3rd place Mets (18-16) fly to Florida tonight and start a four game series versus the Marlins tomorrow night.

Scouting Report, RHP Craig Stammen

26-year old Craig Stammen made his major league debut last year, and started 19 games. He is in his 4th professional season and in his own words, started to "pitch instead of throw" in 2008. He doesn't strike anyone out (4.4 K/9), but also doesn't walk anyone either ( < 2 W/9). He is a ground-ball machine(> 65% the past two years), and his greatest comp is teammate Chien-Ming Wang. He had a 5.11 ERA last year, with a 1.29 WHIP. He faced the Mets three times last year, with a 1-2 record, with 17 innings pitched and a 4.67 ERA, 1.33 WHIP.

His repertoire features a 90 mph fastball, 85 mph slider, along with a curve-ball (79 mph) and change-up (84 mph). He is also throwing his fastball less this year (53% vs 70% last year), and increased the usage of his slider (26% vs 2%).

He has made six starts this year and has a 1-1 record, with a 5.63 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. He's only pitched more than five innings in three of those starts.

Game 34 Line up

Here is the line-up that will face RHP Craig Stammen this afternoon.

A Pagan
A Cora
J Reyes
J Bay
D Wright
I Davis
J Francouer
R Barajas
M Pelfrey

So no Thole (who is up due to Blanco being placed on bereavement list), nor a spot start for "The Animal" Chris Carter.

My Prediction: Mets win the game and the series, as they end the homestand 4-2, and that will be the score of the game. Mike Pelfrey goes 7+ effective innings and every day Nieve and Pedro will also appear in the game. Who cares if there arms fall off by July, right Jerry?

LET'S GO METS!

Game 33 Very Happy Recap

This was a true team win, as the Mets were down big, but once again continued to fight and claw, and battled back to win 8-6, and it could've been even more if Ike Davis didn't miss a grand slam by a matter of inches.

The good:

• The bullpen was terrific, especially Takahashi, Valdes and K-Rod.
• D Wright and J Bay combined for 6 hits. Exactly what the middle of the order needed to do
• C Carter did what he does, HIT, and comes through with a double in his only at-bat.

• What's even better than that, is that he brought Hulkamania to Citi Field as his entrance song was "I'm a Real American"... AWESOME
• Rod Barajas hit another clutch double even though it was terribly misplayed by "LF" Josh Willingham
• As I alluded to above, Ike Davis CRUSHED a ball to the 2nd deck but it was inches foul, just missing a grand slam in the 8th inning.
• Ike Davis also made another web gem, diving over the dugout rail to end the game
• Hope Fernando Tatis enjoyed his "grab"
• Loved K-Rod's response (laughing and pure joy)

 The Bad

• J Niese was brutal, lasting 4 1/3 innings and allowing six runs and 10 base runners.
• He needs to fix his mechanics to stay on top of the ball and get back to throwing his signature curve-ball effectively.

The Mets try to win the series today at 1:10 PM. Big Pelf vs Craig Stammen

Mets with their biggest comeback of the year, down 6-2 and win 8-6.

Scouting Report, LHP Scott Olsen

Washington Nationals LHP Scott Olsen is a familiar foe, as the 26-year old faced the Mets 13 times as a Florida Marlin, and once as a National last year. The Mets are 10-4 in those 14 starts, but he did help end the Mets 2008 season by pitching a good game to close out Shea Stadium, a game Mets fans remember all too well.

He is in his 6th major league season, and the 2nd season with the Washington Nationals. His season ended prematurely last year, as he underwent surgery to repair a torn labrum in his shoulder last July. The talent has always been there, as he was the 6th pick out of high school in 2002. He’s a tall lefty (6’4”) who works quickly and delivers from a high 3/4s arm slot. He throws in the low-90s and his out pitch is his filthy slider. He compliments the fastball, slider combo with an average change-up, which is only 6 mph slower than his average fastball (89 vs 83 mph). He has had problems with repeating his delivery in the past, as well as some difficulty interacting with others, including teammates, coaches, law enforcement etc. He’s a fly-ball pitcher who has allowed too many home runs over his career 1.34 HR/9. His career ERA is 4.71 with a 1.47 WHIP. His strikeout and walk rates are right around league average.

This year he has seen a small increase in his k/9 (8.36) and a decrease in walks (2.89), which has resulted in a 3.54 ERA and a WHIP of 1.21 thus far. He is still regaining his velocity from the shoulder surgery, but he is throwing harder than he has in the past two years. His pitch selection this year has changed significantly from the previous years, as he has de-emphasized his fastball, only throwing it 48% of his pitches (down from 70% in 2007), and increasing his slider use to 28.5% and his change-up to 23%. He also appears to be throwing more 2-seamers this year, and it has resulted in a slight increase in his ground-ball rate (43% vs 36% last year). After a two inning outing versus the Rockies (7 hits, 6 earned runs) on April 20th, Olsen threw 20+ consecutive scoreless innings, and took a no-hitter into the 8th inning in his last start versus Atlanta, before allowing two runs (one earned). He has not thrown 100 pitches in any of his five starts this year.

Game 32 Unhappy Recap

Mets lose the opener of the series to the Nationals 3-2, as the Nationals hit back to back home runs in the 3rd inning, and then added an insurance run late in the game. A Pagan hit a HR in the 9th to make it 3-2, but the Mets fell short. Reyes and Manuel were both ejected after Reyes was called out looking at a 3-2 slider, which appeared to be a strike.

After the game, the Mets finally realized that Frankie C. from Smithtown was not helping the team, and they called up Chris "The Animal" Carter. Finally a smart decision by the Mets.

They still have a waste of a roster spot with Gary Matthews Jr., who struck out in a huge spot in the 7th inning with runners on 1st and 3rd and 1 out. Why wasn't Tatis pinch hitting there??

Game 32: Mets vs Nationals

The Battle of 2nd place begins tonight. Here is the line-up that will face RHP Luis Atilano, who is celebrating his 25th birthday today.

A Pagan CF
L Castillo 2B
J Reyes SS
J Bay LF
D Wright 3B
I Davis 1B
J Francoeur RF
R Barajas C
J Maine P

My prediction: Mets win 6-5, as neither Atilano, nor Maine are sharp.

LET'S GO METS!

Mets Weekend Update

I was only able to watch the game on Friday night, and followed the last two games loosely via mlb gameday/radio as I was returning back to the tri-state area. I will post a review by tomorrow afternoon of Target Field (went to the Saturday night game when Joe Mauer pinch hit with the bases loaded).


But back to the Mets. Obviously we need to be happy being able to win two of three games, but it would've been extra sweet if we could've held on to win the game last night after they battled back despite Oliver Perez being a complete disaster. He is not any where close to being a major league pitcher right now, and I'm not sure what the answer of what to do with him is, but what I do know is that if the Mets want to be a playoff contender, he can not pitch for them every five days hoping he figures it out.

Some people were clamoring for Dillon Gee to take Oliver Perez's spot in the rotation after he threw two consecutive shut outs to start the year, but he has now returned back to Earth and has a 5.81 ERA over the past four starts, due to a significant increase in walks (3.3 W/9 which is just average; he had allowed only one walk in his first two starts) and some bad luck (extremely high BAPIP; Hat Tip Toby Hyde of MetsMinorLeagueBlog.com). Since Dillon Gee is not on the 40-man roster, I didn't do a scouting report for him, but here is a short and sweet one (if he does get called up I will write up an expanded post). He has fringe-average stuff, with a fastball that is 88-90, topping out at 92. His best pitch is his change-up, and also mixes in a cutter/slider and a slow curve. He needs to rely on his impeccable control to be successful. Missed most of last year (May 25th was his last start) due to a torn labrum, which he opted to do rehab for instead of surgery. He's 24 years old, and was ranked the Mets 23rd best prospected by Baseball America, and 22nd by MetsMinorLeagueBlog.

Right now I would give Takahashi a chance to start, and call up RA Dickey as an insurance policy in case he runs out of gas after 4 innings/isn't effective and Dickey can give the Mets numerous innings without depleting the bullpen.
Some other news/notes:

• F Nieve is now on pace to pitch in 104 games. That would tie the major league record Jerry. Just an FYI.
• J Mejia gave up a wind-aided two-run HR that was the difference maker in yesterday's game. At least they are utilizing him in higher leverage situations and not completely wasting his talents, although I still believe he should be a starting pitcher in the minors right now.
• Where is Daniel Murphy?? He has disappeared. Ok, I'm slightly exaggerating, but why is he not playing in any minor league games? He's in extended spring training trying to be a utility player, which I disagree with, but wouldn't he benefit from seeing real game experience in addition to extra fielding practice versus only going through spring training drills? At the very least, he has to be a better left-handed pinch hitter than Frankie C. from Smithtown.
• Chris Carter is still tearing up AAA in case any one cares about him, because apparently the Mets don't. His slash numbers for the season are: .339/.395/.615. He too would also be a significant upgrade on the bench over Frank C. and/or Gary Matthews Jr. Here was my scouting report for Carter in March: Chris Carter.

Feel free to post your comments/your thoughts on what the Mets should do with their bench spots, and/or what to do with Oliver Perez, as well as your expectations for C Beltran and when he will return (here is the link to the two Beltran posts from Today and last Tuesday).

As always, thanks for reading.

Beltran update

To follow up what I wrote last week re: Beltran, Will Carrol of Baseball Prospectus wrote in his column today about the brace that Beltran is now wearing. It's an Ossur CTi OA brace, and from the company's web site, this is who the brace is intended for:

Indications for Use
Mild to severe unicompartmental osteoarthritis
ACL, MCL, LCL, PCL, rotary and combined instabilities

Beltran is going to attempt to run at some point this week. If he is able to run pain-free, then he will try to accelerate his rehab program and get back to the Mets as soon as he can. If he is still unable to tolerate running, surgery may be the last resort.

So if Beltran can run pain-free, the bigger question is IF/how he will be able to play the cavernous centerfield at Citi Field. Neither Francoeur nor Bay are able to play there defensively. If Beltran is no longer even a league average center fielder (when he used to be a top defender), then how valuable is he?

Scouting Report RHP Luis Atilano

The New York Mets will face RHP Luis Atilano tonight, who is making his 4th major league start. Atilano turns 25 years old today and hopefully the Mets make it difficult for him to celebrate. Atilano is linked to the Mets, as he was the compensation pick (#35) for the Atlanta Braves back in 2003, as a result of the Mets signing Tom Glavine. When he was drafted out of Puerto Rico, the Braves saw a skinny pitcher with excellent movement on his fastball and expected that he would continue to progress and increase velocity as he matured. The Braves were hoping he would turn into a 93-94 mph pitcher but that failed to materialize, as he tops out at 88-89 mph. The Braves also loved his mound presence and competitiveness, making him the Braves highest rank Puerto Rican player in the draft that year. However, he suffered an elbow injury in 2006, underwent Tommy John Surgery, and was traded shortly thereafter to the Nationals for Daryle Ward.

Atilano is a strike-thrower, but hardly a strike out pitcher (4.8 K/9 through eight minor league seasons, and six K’s through 17 1/3 major league innings). He attacks the hitter, works fast, and keeps the ball down, resulting in a lot of ground balls. He rarely walked hitters in the minors (< 2 W/9 the last two years), but so far in the majors he’s walking too many (10 in 17 1/3 innings). As I said earlier, he features a 88-89 tailing fastball (ton of movement), an above-average change-up (80 mph), and has switched from a curveball to a slider. The lack of the third pitch was what has prevented him from being a serious prospect in the past. Baseball America has him ranked as the Nationals 20th prospect coming into this year. He took the rotation spot of injured Jason Marquis.

So far this year, he has started three games, pitched 17 1/3 innings, and is 2-0 with a 4.67 ERA and 1.62 WHIP. He needs to cut down on the walks if he wants to be a successful major league pitcher with sustainable success.

Scouting Report, RHP Tim Lincecum

Tim Lincecum =  Very, very good.
The End.

Wait, I already did that as my opening for Roy Halladay? darn. Well, this 25-year old superstar is freakishly good, and is throwing even better than Halladay this year. He already has two Cy Young Awards, and may be adding another one to his mantle this year if he keeps it up. Keep in mind this is only his 4th big league season.

He has a one-of-a kind delivery, in which he delivers straight over the top. He has an extremely long stride (even longer than Johan's), and he features three plus pitches. Even though he's lost 3 mph on his fastball since first taking the league by storm, he is now featuring a two-seamer 15% of the time (which has resulted in an increase in his ground ball rate to 50%) and he is averaging his fastball velocity around 91 (but his "rising" four-seam fastball still hits 94-95). He also throws a plus curve, and a plus-plus change, that probably is the best in baseball. He throws his change-up for a strike 75% of the time (league average is 60%. Hat Tip to Fangraphs). The craziest stat is that he gets a 34% swing and miss rate on his change-up (league average is 12%). He gets a ton of swing and misses outside of the strike zone, which helps to maintain his K/9 > 10, and his walk /9 < 3.

This year he has a 4-0 record with a  1.73 ERA and a minuscule 0.83 WHIP. He's gone 7+ innings in five of his six starts, and has eight walks to his 56 strikeouts (42 1/3 innings). He's struck out 10+ batters in three starts so far this year.

He is one of the top three pitchers in baseball, and will be very difficult to beat (if you couldn't figure that out from all those numbers above).

And Another Happy Recap!

Another day, another Mets catcher with a walk-off, this time courtesy of Henry Blanco. Mets win 5-4 in 11 innings.

Ike Davis vs lefties

As many of you know, my biggest hesitation with promoting Ike Davis was that he wasn't ready to handle/have success versus left-handed pitchers. Well after his two home runs off of Jonathan Sanchez (the first HIT he had allowed to a lefty this year), Ike was hitting .700 (7-10).

I'm thrilled he's doing this well, but just want to urge people not to jump to conclusions about him handling lefties after such a small sample size. But I hope I was wrong and he continues to have success.

I'm going to the night game at Target Field (Twins new stadium), so I again won't be adding much commentary for the mets game.

LET'S GO METS!

Scouting Report, RHP Todd Wellemeyer

This 31 year old journeyman is on his 5th major league team in his 8th big league season, and the first with the Giants. He became the Giants 5th starter by default when Giants prospect Madison Bumgarner struggled in spring training and lost his velocity and effectiveness. He is more or less a placeholder until if/when Bumgarner is ready (he's 20 years old, but looks to be regaining his velocity in his last 3 minor league starts).

When Wellemeyer made his major league debut with the Cubs in 2003, he was throwing 94 mph; in 2010 his average fastball is 89.6. He's experimenting with a cutter last year and a little this year, while featuring a slider (82 mph), a curve-ball and a change up (both of which he will only throw 5-6 times a game). His fastball hasn't been an effective pitch since 2004, and he has relied on his slider for most of his limited success. For his career, he strikes out 6.6 K/9 (below league average), and walks 4.4 /9 (above league average), for a career ERA of 4.78. Not bad for a 5th starter, but he won't win many games with this below-average offense behind him.

For the year he is 1-3, with a 5.55 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP, but most of that damage came in his first two starts of the year (6 1/3 innings, 4 ER, and 4 innings, 7 ER). His last appearance was three innings of scoreless relief. He's a fly-ball pitcher against whom the Mets should have success.

WALK OFF BARAJAS STYLE!! 2 home runs from Ike and Barajas!! go crazy folks, go crazy! Mets win 6-4

Scouting Report, LHP Jonathan Sanchez

This 27 year old left-hander threw a no-hitter last July, and over his next 10 starts he turned in six quality starts, 75 strikeouts versus 27 walks in 59 2/3 innings. But then he reverted back to his inconsistent self, and in the last five starts of the year, he failed to get out of the sixth inning, allowing 36 base-runners and six home runs in 25 innings pitched.  Multiple scouts have made the comp to OLIVER PEREZ. For those reading at home, that's not good.

He has a live arm and throws from a 3/4 arm slot. He has a sneaky fast 91-94 mph fastball, and compliments it with a biting slider and a split finger/change up that runs down and away from righties. Scuffles with his mechanics and command at times and loses focus with adversity (sound like Ollie P??). He's a fly-ball pitcher, who misses a ton of bats (9.5 K/9 for career, 11.5 K/9 this year), but also walks a bunch (4.72 W/9 career, 5.6 W/9 for the year). His slider was his most effective pitch last year, but this year his fastball has been his best pitch.

Overall he has filthy stuff, but like Oliver Perez, can lose focus and command quickly. In three of his five starts this year he hasn't lasted more than 5 innings, but he has a 2.48 ERA.