And I'm Back

After a great 2-week vacation with limited internet access, and only able to watch ESPN one night (but it was the one that counted, day 162 of the season), I'm back and revitalized to prep for the Mets off-season, and what needs to get done.

I know a lot of people were/are upset with how Reyes handled the batting title, leaving after his first at-bat, but it's not a big issue for me. The batting title is an individual accomplishment, and Reyes didn't alter the "integrity of the game" by taking himself out, as neither the Mets nor the Reds seasons were impacted by it. Would I have preferred to have Reyes play out the whole game, get a standing ovation etc. that he deserves, and a thank you for a great year/possibly career with the Mets? OF COURSE, but I'm not going to lose any sleep over his decision, and I don't think he is either.

So stay tuned for my off-season plans over the next week, and let me know what topics you guys want to focus on as we get ready for yet another long off-season for the Mets.

FOLDING UP

“This has been an awful time. … I’m the manager of this team and I’m responsible. We didn’t manage, we didn’t coach and we didn’t play. It’s pretty simple. You go through stretches and this is one of them, but perception is reality in our game and the perception I have is that we folded it up. I won’t stand for that. You want to see intensity? You want to see me be intense? You guys are gonna see it? I don’t play that game. You come to play the game right. I don’t care what the situation is, I don’t care what the standings say, I don’t care about pitch counts. I only care about playing the game correctly. Our fans should be upset. I don’t blame them one bit. … We need to find a new formula. I don’t know what it is yet, but I’ve got a three-hour plan ride to figure it out. … They’re tired. But, the Washington Nationals are tired too. … They can’t be any  more tired than we are. They’re playing for the exact same thing we are, and that’s pride. … We’re not done. We have two weeks to go. If we’re gonna fold it up, that tells me something. It tells me a lot about what will happen next year when we are fighting for something.”

~ Terry Collins, following today’s game, regarding his team’s play

 This is TERRIBLE. 

I am glad TC took the blame, but this is not good. This means to me he may have lost the clubhouse again, like he did in Anaheim? 

Your thoughts? 

PS I will be on vacation for 2 weeks through the end of the season, so expect little activity here until a week after the off-season, and I will have my off-season plan.

Scouting Report Josh Stinson

Mets called up reliever Josh Stinson today as the rosters expanded, so here is the scouting report I did on Stinson during Spring Training. He struggled as a starter early in the year, so was converted to the bullpen.

Josh Stinson - #64

23 years old
6th professional season (no major league experience)
6'4" 205 pounds
Bats R/Throws R

Profile: Drafted out of high school, he didn't pitch above A ball until last season. He started to open some eyes at the end of 2009 in high A ball when he was turned into a reliever and he had a sub-2.00 ERA (1.98 in 38 innings). He pitched between AA and AAA last year, and he earned a spot in the AA All-Star game in 2010. He was added to the 40-man roster so he was not eligible to be selected in the Rule 5 draft.

Good: He throws a hard fastball (91-93 mph), with a good slider and curve-ball.

Bad: In the minors, he hasn't been striking out a ton of hitters (5.5 K/9 in 110 innings in AA, 6.75 K/9 in AAA in 28 innings in 2010).

Role: He will probably start the year in AA or AAA, and try to solidify a role in the bullpen in September/future.

Video:
 1st base view


3rd base view

Picture from tonight's game

Loyal reader is at the game... Enjoy!

Draft Signees

As I mentioned yesterday, I believed the Mets would get their 1st and 3rd round picks signed, and they did. They also were very aggressive and signed their 15th round pitck to an overslot deal, in essence getting a top 100 player (dropped due to strong college commit and money demands) in the 15th round. Yes they paid the money of a supplemental draft pick (between rounds 1 and 2), but that's what big market teams do.

Here was a great chart from Metsminorleagueblog.com, showing the change in the draft spending of the Mets over the past 10 years. Great job Toby.

Today is a good day to be a Mets fan, and thank you Sandy for doing exactly what you said you would do when you signed on this off-season.

State of the Mets 8/15/11

It's been close to 2 weeks since we last looked at how the Mets were doing, and on 8/2 they were 1 game under .500 and 8 1/2 games behind the Braves for a Wild Card.

It's now officially the dog days of August, as the Mets have lost 5 games in a row, including getting swept out of Arizona, and are 4 games under .500, 20 1/2 games out of 1st place, and 11 1/2 games behind the Braves for the Wild Card. They are only 2 games ahead of last place (Florida Marlins).

• Johan Santana has not resumed throwing since his 'shoulder fatigue' diagnosis 2 weeks ago, and I would put his chances of throwing in the majors this season at 10%.
• Ike Davis will rest for two more weeks and then decide if he should undergo microfracture surgery, which would allow him to be ready for Spring Training in 2012, so he is obviously done for this season.

Today is the deadline for signing drafted players, and the Mets still haven't signed their 1st and 3rd round picks, but this isn't a surprise. Anyone who gets an overslot deal often waits until the last day, and Nimmo has been asking for 2.5+ million since before he was drafted. No harm in waiting until the last day and I'm not concerned unless they fail to sign him and then that's a huge issue.

Are there any other pressing issues you guys think with the Mets? I don't want to turn to the off-season plan just yet (do they tender a contract to Pelfrey/Pagan, and what should the offer be to Reyes).

Fans at the game

Here is a picture from a braves fan at tonight's game.

Lets go Mets!

State of the Mets 8/2/11

At this time last week, the Mets were 1 game under .500, and 8 1/2 games behind the Braves for the Wild Card. Now the Mets are 1 game over .500, and 7 1/2 games behind the Braves. To get to 90 wins, they would need to go 35-18, or play .660 ball the remainder of the year. The Phillies have the best record in baseball this year, and they are playing .640 ball.

In other news, Sandy Alderson decided not to trade anyone else besides K-Rod and Beltran because he felt it was important to let this team try to win. No one but Sandy and the front office knows what the market was for guys like Byrdak or Isringhausen or S Hairston, but if there was any decent package out there for any of those guys, he did the Mets a disservice by not trading them. Again, I'm not saying there was a fair trade out there, I don't know that. But the difference between winning 76 games and 84 games is nothing to me; I'd rather win 76 games, get a guy who may help the team in the future for a spare part, and get a better draft pick next year.

The rest of the season will focus on individual performances, on if Ike Davis will be able to avoid surgery on his ankle, and how Johan Santana comes back and performs/for how many starts.

What else are you guys concerned/focused on the rest of the season?

Mets Newest Pitching Prospect, Zack Wheeler

Late night at work last night, so I'm just getting around to the scouting report of Zack Wheeler, who the Mets acquired for the 2-month rental of Carlos Beltran. Wheeler was considered the #2 prospect in the Giants system by Baseball America, ESPN's Keith Law, and Baseball Prospectus. He was the #6 draft pick in the 2009 draft and got 3.3 million from the Giants out of high school.

Wheeler is a 3/4 pitch pitcher, with a fastball that sits 90-94 and touches 96-97 mph with natural sink, a big and slow curveball mid-70s, an average slider (85 mph), and a below-average change that still needs work. He was pitching in High A ball this year after only throwing 58 2/3 innings last year in A ball secondary to a cracked finger nail. That helped him refine his mechanics slightly, but there are some concerns about his arm action (as you will see in the video/article below).  He still has command issues (walking > 4.5/9 innings), and has trouble with left-handed hitters which may be a result of his arm angle. But he is striking out > 10/9 innings; don't forget he is 21 years old, so he has plenty of room to grow and project to the front-line starter many scouts see him as.

His ETA to the majors would be 2013, so the Mets rotation could be headlined by Harvey and Wheeler, with Mejia,and Niese rounding out a solid young quartet of pitchers for many years to come (hopefully).

Here is a great video review of Wheeler from one of his starts in May (http://projectprospect.com/article/2011/05/23/zack-wheeler-scouting-report).

What do you guys think? Should Sandy get a lifetime contract for this deal?

Thank you Carlos

The Mets have reportedly agreed to deal Carlos Beltran to the Giants for three players, one of which is a top 40 prospect in baseball Zack Wheeler. He is a young RHP, and instantly becomes a future front off the rotation starter with Matt Harvey. He most likely won't join the Mets until 2013, but this is a great job by Sandy Alderson.

A more thorough scouting report will be posted tonight.

LET'S GO METS!

If this were to happen...

I'd go out and buy a Rasmus jersey tomorrow.

http://www.metsminorleagueblog.com/colby-rasmus-is-available-want/

Don't think that Pelfrey, Capuano and Brydak would get it done either, but can't we dream?

Mets Lose Weekend Series vs the Marlins

Mets had a nice win on Friday night to get 1 game above .500, but then lost the next two, to once again drop below .500. They are on the road for a 4-game series versus the Reds, followed by a 3-game road series at the Nationals.

The Mets are currently 14 1/2 games behind the Phillies, and 8 1/2 out of the Wild Card, with 5 teams between them and the Braves.

The next week will focus strictly on the trade market for Beltran, Byrdak, Isringhausen, Capuano, Hairston etc., and this could be a turning point in the Mets future if they are able to secure one or two future pieces by trading any of those above players. I'm not going to list every rumor/prospect because 98% of those trades don't happen. But when the deal is done, I will give the scouting reports/information I have on the players the Mets are receiving.

Let's go Sandy and the Rest of the Front Office!

Mets going for the sweep

Anyone who isn't doing anything today, head out to Citi Field for what may be the last Home game for Carlos Beltran. Do the right thing and cheer him every at bat and thank him for the last 7 years.

Let's go Mets!

State of the Mets: 7/16

I wanted to do a state of the Mets at the All-Star break, but the real world once again was too busy. So now I'm sitting on balcony watching boats go by and life isn't so bad:)

• After last night's loss to the Phillies, the Mets are 46-46, and 12 games behind the division-leading Phillies, and 8 1/2 behind the Braves.
• I mentioned to a couple people on Friday that I hope the Mets get swept. No, I'm not becoming a Yankee fan after wearing that disgusting hat last week, but I don't want the Mets to get hot and have the organization think they still have a shot at making the playoffs this year.
• K-Rod was traded for 2 PTBNL, of which no one knows the list of players, so I'm not going to speculate
• Within a day of accepting the trade to a team that was on his original 10-team no-trade list (good job by his former agent dropping the ball), K-Rod agrees to make the option a mutual option, essentially assuring he will be a free agent at the end of the year. 
• Now the Brewers will get 2 draft picks next year (assuming he's a type A free-agent, which I think is pretty safe) and that he doesn't resign with the Brewers (which won't happen)
• I wonder if the Mets would've been given that luxury or if he needed to be traded in order for that to occur.The Mets would've been better off getting those two draft picks, but hindsight is 20/20, and I doubt Boras would've allowed him to make the player option a mutual option
• People are worried that the Mets are "waving the White flag" and going to have a fire sale
• Why be worried? This is what the Mets should be doing! If someone wants to give us a B level prospect for Isringhausen, great! Scott Hairston, I'll pay for the airfare! Even Chris Capuano, who I really like, may bring in a decent player from a contender looking for a 4th/5th starter
• Any useable pieces that aren't in the long-term plans of the team should be traded as long as the trade is giving us a potential major league player in return, even if that player will take 3 years to reach the big leagues
• This comes to the issue of should the Mets trade Carlos Beltran, and the answer is a resounding YES
• Although it's great to read that Beltran "wants to finish his career in a Mets uniform", Boras made a great contract point 7 years ago that the Mets couldn't offer him arbitration after this year. So if we keep Beltran through the rest of this year and he leaves as a free agent, we don't get a draft pick for him leaving (as the Brewers will for having K-Rod walk)
• Because of this, it is ESSENTIAL that the Mets trade Beltran to whoever the highest bidder is. Beltran is the best outfield bat on the trade market, and as many as 6 or 7 teams are interested. 
• Alderson is rumored to be looking for a top prospect in return, and why not? Ask for the moon and if you wind up with a star, great. This is a big chance for the Mets to get better for the future, and we can't let this opportunity go by.

So for these reasons, I'm hoping the Mets don't get a false sense of hope on this season, and view this as a chance to set up for a brighter future. 

Agree/Disagree?

Scouting Report Cole Hamels

You know the rotation is scary good (when healthy), when you are happy you miss both C Lee and R Halladay, but still have to face another ace in Cole Hamels. The Mets beat him up badly back in April, but he rebounded in his last start May 28th and threw 7 quality innings, striking out 10. Here's the scouting report from then, with his updated stats.

This year he's 11-4 (19 starts, 132 innings), with a 2.32 ERA, 0.93 WHIP,  8.2 K/9 rate and miniscule 1.6 BB/9 rate. He's increased his ground ball rate, and is having the best season of his career. He's increased the use of his cutter to 22%, and he has three plus pitches now (fastball, change and cutter). He used to struggle versus right-handers, but he's limiting them to a .196 batting average this year. He's a serious contender to win the Cy Young award this year (but it's tough to win the Cy Young for his own team).

Cole Hamels
27 Years Old
6th major league season
Bats L/Throws L

The 27-year old Hamels went from a future ace after his stellar post-season in 2008 to a failure in the eyes of Phillies fans after 2009, and back to an ace during 2010. So which pitcher is Cole? Some where in between, but closer to the ace. He was drafted in the 1st round of the 2002 draft and made his major league debut in 2006. He had some durability/character issues in the minors (elbow pain, back discomfort, broken arm in a possible fight in high school, and broke a bone in his hand in a bar room fight), but he has a career 60-45 record in the big leagues, with a 3.53 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. In 2009, he was highly unlucky (.325 BAPIP), while his strikeout and walk rates remained the same from 2008. He added a cutter last year, but more importantly his BAPIP regressed to .289, and he saw his ERA drop from 4.32 in 2009 to 3.06 in 2010, and his WHIP go from 1.29 to 1.18.

Hamels has a smooth high 3/4s arm action and was a fly-ball pitcher (the cutter has made him more of a ground-ball pitcher this year as noted above). He throws his fastball 90-93 mph (92 mph average was the highest of his major league career, up 2 mph from 2009), and possesses one of the best change-ups in the game (82 mph). He occasionally throws a show me curve-ball (76 mph), and added a cutter last year (89 mph). His strike out pitch is his change-up, but also has been getting strikeouts/swings and misses on fastballs out of the zone. He averaged 9.2 K/9 last year and his swing and miss % was 11.9%.

In his 15 career starts versus the Mets, he's struggled. He's 3-9 with a 4.22 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP. The 4.22 ERA is the highest ERA versus any team he's faced 10+ times in his career. Last year the Mets beat him in all 4 starts, although he had a 3.20 ERA in those 25 innings, including two back to back starts in August that he lost 1-0.

Mets Trade K-Rod

I had spent yesterday morning talking to a lawyer asking the ramifications of the Mets just releasing K-Rod (ala Alex Cora), as he got closer to the 55 games finished mark.

Well all that is for naught as the news broke last night the Mets traded K-Rod and Cash Considerations (reported 5 million dollars to cover his salary for this year) in exchange for 2 players to be named later.

My Take: I'm glad we don't have to have any more K-Rod game finished tweets/debates about his usage, but you can't declare this a win until you find out who the 2 PTNL are. The Brewers farm system is very very weak, after they traded everyone for S Marcum and Z Greinke this off-season. They don't have a 4 or a 5 star prospect according to Baseball Prospectus (not that we would get that for K-Rod), but they have 6 out of their top 10 prospects as RHP. So maybe we can get one of these mid-level pitching prospects that may be able to cheaply fill out the back of the rotation next year, or in 2013. And the biggest thing is we don't have to think about paying 15%+ out of payroll next year to a guy who will pitch 70 innings.

Here's the picture you've been waiting for...

I had to wear this disgusting hat for 9 hours today...because the Mets lost the series versus the Yankees last weekend.

Ugh

Scouting Report Tiny Tim Lincecum

The Mets faced Lincecum on May 4th and lost, and here is the scouting report from then. When he faced the Mets on May 4th, he only shut them out for 7 innings, and struck out 12 and scattered 5 hits.

So far this year he's 6-7, but that is why a pitcher's record isn't the only story. His K/9, BB/9, GB %, and ERA are all similar to last year, but last year he was 16-10. He's had 8 starts where he let up one run or less and gone 7+ innings this year.

Tim Lincecum =  Very, very good.

This 27-year old superstar is freakishly good. He already has two Cy Young Awards and has been elected to the all star team five straight years, and was a key part of the Giants Championship last year. Keep in mind this is only his 5th big league season. His career record is 58-30, with a 3.03 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 10.06 K/9, and 3.23 BB/9. In the post season, he was 4-1, 2.43 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 10.46 K/9, 2.19 BB/9. WOW

He has a one-of-a kind delivery, in which he delivers straight over the top. He has an extremely long stride (even longer than Johan's), and he features three plus pitches. Even though he had lost 3 mph, last year, he increased it 1.6 mph from last year, and is back up to averaging 93 mph, 2nd highest since his MLB debut. He is now featuring a two-seamer, (which has resulted in an increase in his ground ball rate to 52%). He also throws a plus curve, and a plus-plus change, that probably is the best in baseball. He throws his change-up 25% of the time. The craziest stat is that he gets a 34% swing and miss rate on his change-up (league average is 12%). He has increased his use of a slider this year to 13% (83 mph), from 8% last year. He gets a ton of swing and misses outside of the strike zone, which helps to maintain his K/9 > 9, and his walk /9 < 3.

He's started 5 games against the Mets in his career, and is 1-1 with 3.71 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 34 innings pitched, 33 ks. Last year he faced the Mets twice, 15 innings, 1.20 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, including a complete game shutout in July.

He is one of the top three pitchers in baseball, and will be very difficult to beat (if you couldn't figure that out from all those numbers above).

Scouting Ryan Vogelsong

The Mets faced Vogelsong back on May 3rd, and here was the brief scouting report on him.  The Mets scored 5 runs off of him in 4 innings, and that's been his worst start this season (but the Mets still lost 7-6, as Dickey let up 6 earned runs).

He last pitched in the majors in 2006 for the Pirates, at which point he had a 5.70 ERA, and took his services over to Japan. He came back stateside last year, but didn't appear in an MLB game.

He's a feel good story, and made the roster when Barry Zito went on the dl. He made a quality start versus the Pirates, striking out 8.

He's a 4 pitch pitcher, fastball (90 mph), an 87 mph cutter (22%), a curve and change-up. His cutter usage has increased the most since his last appearance in the majors.

Wondering what he's done since then? Oh, well, he's just been named to the NL All-Star Team...He's 6-1 in 13 starts, with a 2.13 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. He has a 1.01 ERA at home (loves the San Fran air apparently). His fastball and his curveball have both been above average pitches, with his fastball being one of the best in baseball, despite only averaging 91.4 mph. He leans on his curveball in 0-2 and 1-2 counts. He isn't getting a ton of swings and misses (7.6%), but does attack hitters, throwing first pitch strike 64% of the time.  He's had 11 straight games on allowing 3 earned runs or less.

He is due to regress (xFIP 3.63), so why not start tonight?

Mets Win again, and Go for the Sweep Tonight

My wife is beginning to wonder why I don't go to sleep any more, and my simple response was "Mets are on the West Coast and actually playing well." I hoped the game today would be a 4:00 start, but another long night awaits us... I watched the majority of the game last night, except for 5 minute clips where I just rested my eyes. Couple observations.

• Niese's velocity was down all game. He was still effective, but he won't be much longer if he's sitting at 88 mph versus 92-93 mph.
• Carlos Beltran created and stole a run solely on his base-running. This used to be a huge part of Beltran's value, but the knee injuries have limited this recently. It was great to see this and fun to watch
• K-Rod finished his 33rd game, 22 more games finished and his 17.5 million dollar contract vests. 
• It is widely known/assumed that K-Rod will agree to waive his no-trade clause in exchange for a multi-year deal and to get rid of the option. What is his agent thinking his asking price is? I'd give him 2 years, 16-20 million dollars (8-10 million/year) and see if that gets it done. 
• What do you think his price is/what will his next contract be?