Scouting Report Justin Verlander

This 28-year old ace has thrown 200+ innings 4 years in a row, and is well on his way to doing it again this year. His career record is excellent: 93-55, with a 3.65 ERA (17 of those losses and his ERA is inflated due to his 2008 season). In 2009 and 2010 he was a combined 37-18, with a sub 3.5 ERA.

We all know Verlander is good, but just how good has he been recently? In his last 6 starts, he's 6-0, gone 8+ innings in all but 1 of those games (7 2/3), and has allowed a total of 4 runs during that span. He struck out 10+ in 3 of those games, while walking 6 hitters total. I'm not sure if there has been another as dominating stretch in recent history.  For the season he's 10-3, with a 2.38 ERA, and 0.84 WHIP. His K/9 rate is very good (8.7), and he's minimizing walks (1.9 BB/9).

How does he do it? Well he starts off with a plus-plus fastball, that averages > 95 mph (55%), then features three other plus pitches, which almost isn't fair. A 79 mph curve has been his 2nd best pitch this year, and he's increased the use to 20%; his change-up is also filthy, 86 mph. And just to make it even that much harder, he will mix in a slider (86 mph, 8% of his pitches). He throws 1st pitch strike > 61% of the time, and gets an impressive 10.7% swing and miss, 2nd best of his career. He throws 1st pitch fastball 70% of the time.

The Mets are facing the best pitcher they've seen recently and will have their hands full, but their offense is also clicking on all cylinders the past few days. I always believe good pitching beats good hitting, but I'm excited to see today's game

Mets are Over .500!

For the first time in over a month, the Mets are above the .500 mark, due to a laugher of a game, which included 2 grand slams by Bay and Beltran.

I want to jump on the Mets playoff bus, I really do. But it's tough for me to do that, especially when just yesterday Carlos Beltran told the New York Post he would accept a trade to a contender. So that to me seems like he doesn't believe the Mets are a true contender...

But, for now, I'm going to continue to watch Jose Reyes dominate the sport, and hope the Mets continue to win. I'd love for nothing for than the Mets to be 3 games over .500 on Friday night when they open up the Subway Series at Citi, and I'll be there and hopefully an energy at Citi Field...

State of the Mets, June 27th

After winning the series in Texas, the Mets are now back to .500 (39-39), and in 4th place, 9.5 games out of 1st place. As far as the Wild Card, 6 teams separate the Mets from the Wild-Card leading Braves, where the Mets are 4.5 games back.

• Can you believe the baseball season is almost at the halfway mark? I feel like I was down in Florida at Spring Training just a month ago.
• K-Rod got credit for another game finished yesterday, despite it being an 8-3 game when he came in. That is his 29th game finished, and is on pace for 60 games, 5 more than he needs to vest his 17.5 million dollar contract for next year. 
• He better be traded/re-structure his contract, or Terry Collins should be forced to pay that salary to K-Rod next year. There's no excuse K-Rod needed to be used yesterday in an 8-3 game.
• Niese and Capuano both left their last starts with medical concerns, but hopefully are an issue
• Also on the injury front, D Wright should be back to the Mets in 3-4 weeks. Ike Davis will be re-evaluated at that point and see if he's making progress, or if he may need to have surgery.
• I haven't commented on Ike's injury that much, because it's tough to make a blanket statement when you/I don't have the full medical report. People pick and chose what they hear/whats disclosed, and rush to judgments. The Mets made the right decision putting him in the boot when they did with the information they had at the time. 
• Mets play a 3-game set in Detroit, then return home for the Subway Series.
• I will be going to the Friday night game with a loyal reader of the blog. If anyone else is going, e-mail me and we will try to get together.

All-Star Selections

I filled out my first (and probably last) ballot this morning, and here is my starting line-up, first for the National League:

C B McCann - .379 OBP and 13 home runs makes McCann an easy choice
1B P Fielder - Having a monster year before free agency
2B R Weeks - Continues to put up great offensive numbers
3B C Jones- No very strong candidate, so this is a hat tip as a career accomplishment
SS J Reyes - No doubter
OF R Braun - 3rd Brewer to start
OF M Kemp - Having an MVP season
OF A McCutchen - underrated because he plays in Pittsburgh

American League:
C A Avila - Power is getting him noticed
1B A Gonzalez- .360 average is pretty good
2B R Cano - Top slugging % among all 2nd baseman
3B A Rodriquez - Also has the highest slugging % among AL 3B
SS A Cabrera - He's helping my fantasy team, and top 2 in OBP, Slug % in the AL
OF J Ellsbury - .365 OBP and 25 stolen bases, also showing he has some pop (9 HR)
OF C Granderson - .360 OBP, 21 home runs.
OF J Bautista - .468 OBP. 23 Home Runs. WOW

Any strong disagreements out there?

Scouting report Alexi Ogando

Ogando started the year out on fire, and put to rest all the critics that thought he belonged in the bullpen. He's 27 years old, and hasd a long rocky road to the majors- he was a failed hitter and was also involved in a marriage for visa fraud. But last year he went from double A to the World Series.

This year he's 7-2 (14 starts, 88 innings), with a 2.66 ERA. he throws first pitch strikes 58% and generates 8.3% swing and misses for a 6.5 K/9, and only 2 BB/9. He's benefited from a low BAPIP (.229) and high strand rate (79%).

He's mainly a 2- pitch pitcher( main reason people viewed him as a reliever), with a heavy 95 mph fastball and a power slider. He will throw an occasional change up (5%, 85 mph).

He is a power arm who limits home runs, but I question his long term effectiveness as a starter despite a Plus plus fastball.

No Mets Update Tonight

Instead I'll be here

Scouting Report Matt Harrison

The 25-year old lefty has an ideal pitcher's body (6'4" 225 pounds), but often confounded scouts why he wasn't more of a power pitcher/able to get more strikeouts. He was part of the bounty received in the Mark Tex rental from the Braves, and he was once considered the top lefty in the Braves system. He underwent surgery to correct Thoracic Outlet Syndrome in 2009, and it appears he's finally fully recovered, as his fastball velocity is the highest of his career this year.  Harrison is 21-16 for his career (45 starts, 31 relief appearances), with a 3.91 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. He has never faced the Mets in his career.

Harrison is a 4-pitch pitcher, with his fastball averaging 93 mph (was 90-92 previous years), and that has been his best pitch this year. He has also started throwing his slider less, but throwing it harder (87 mph), increased his use of his curve (12%, 77 mph), and has a change-up (83 mph). His swing and miss % is below average at 6.8%, and his K/9 rate shows that, 5.6 this year (5 for his career). He walks too many hitters for someone who can't miss bats (3.86 BB/9). He's gotten lucky this year limiting HRs, but also benefiting from a high strand rate and an unsustainable BAPIP. His ERA is 3.16, but his FIP and xFIP are both 4.18. He's 5-6 in 13 starts this year, but he's only let up more than 3 earned runs twice this season, and currently has 7 straight starts with < 3 earned runs/

Harrison is an interesting pitcher who I wouldn't just write off just yet, especially with the increased velocity shown this year. Some scouts see his future in the bullpen, but I still see a chance he can be a middle of the rotation starter for years to come

Mets vs A's Thursday matinee

Godfrey will face this lineup if the rain ever stops:

Reyes
Turner
Beltran
Murphy
Pagan
Bay
Duda
Thole
Capuano

My prediction: Mets win the game and the series today, 6-1.

Lets go Mets!

Scouting Graham Godfrey

This was the hardest scouting report I've had to write, because no one has a lot of info on this guy. He's 26 years old (27 in August), and just made his major league debut earlier this month when Brett Anderson went on the DL. He isn't on any top 11, 20 or even top 30 prospect lists. He was drafted in the 34th round by the Blue Jays in 2006, and was traded to the A's in 2007 for Marco Scutaro. With that being said, he did outpitch Tim Lincecum last week (7 innings, 6 hits, 1 earned run).

Godfrey had 9-AAA starts (50 innings), and had a K/9 > 8, BB/9 < 2.5, and a 2.50 ERA, so very respectable numbers. He's 1-0 in his 2 starts for the A's, but his K/9 rate is underwhelming (< 4); he is minimizing walks (1.59 BB/9), and his ERA is 4.76, with a 1.50 WHIP.

He's a 4-pitch pitcher, 91 mph fastball, 76 mph curve, 81 mph slider, and 82 mph change. None of his secondary pitches are above-average. He uses his fastball and curve as his favorite pitches with 2 strikes, and in true small sample size fashion, he has thrown a fastball in a 3-2 count 100% of the time in his 2 major league starts.

Scouting Gio Gonzalez

Quick and dirty scouting report

• Darkhouse pre-season Cy Young candidate
• 25 years old, threw 200 innings last year, 3.23 ERA and 1.31 WHIP
• 2.69 ERA this year with 8.5 K/9 innings, but he's walking too many hitters (4.3 BB/9)
• 93 mph fastball (65%), 80 mph curve (30%), occasional change up (84 mph)
• Curve is his by far his best pitch, and is his go-to pitch with 2 strikes
• Lefties are hitting only .213 against him, and 12+ K/9, so expect a lot of righties in the line-up

He's given up 2 or less runs in 10 of his 14 starts (although he did get lucky and get an ugly start rained out so his stats could be a lot worse.

Overall, he's one of the top young pitchers in baseball, and going to be tough to beat.

Fan at the game

This fan wishes he was still at McFadden's...

Mets vs A's

Here's the lineup that will score some runs and draw walks vs J Outman:

Reyes
Turner
Beltran
Murphy
Pagan
Bay
Paulino
Tejada
Gee

My prediction: gee is unbeatable, and Mets win 5-3.

Let's go Mets!

Scouting Report Josh Outman

This 26 year-old lefty missed all of the 2010 season recovering from Tommy John Surgery in June 30, 2009, which is a little a little long (15+ months versus 12 months typically). He was originally in the Phillies farm system, but was traded to the A's in the Joe Blanton deal. He's appeared in 25 games in his major league career (21 starts), and is 7-4, with a 3.62 ERA and 1.28 WHIP.

Outman is a 4-pitch pitcher, who averaged 94 mph before surgery, but is now 92 mph. He also has a plus slider (81 mph), an average change-up (79 mph, 18% of his pitches), and a slow curve (75.5 mph). His two best pitches are his fastball and slider. He's only getting swings and misses on 6.6% of his pitches (9.4% before TJ surgery), and his K/9 rate is a tiny 3.77, and his walk rate is 3.45; not a good combo. He's a fly-ball pitcher, but has benefited from allowing only 1 home run in his 28+ innings, or else his ERA may not look as good (3.14; his xFIP is 4.86).

Couple interesting things to note from his small sample size this season:
1) He has yet to walk a left-handed hitter (28 batters)
2) He throws 1st pitch fastball 63% of the time
3)He rarely throws his slider when he's behind in the count, and saves it for 0-2 and 1-2 counts
4) He's only thrown 100 pitches once in his 5 starts this season

Scouting Report Tyler Chatwood

If you read any information about Chatwood, and you will hear the same 4 or 5 things

• Bulldog and aggressive mentality, won't quit on anything
• Can throw mid-90s, with a knee-buckling mid 70s curve, with an improved change-up but needs to continued refinement
• Has command issues, although it's improved, he still elevates his fastball
• Diminutive (5'11"), most teams were going to draft him as a SS/CF (he's athletic enough to do it), but was signed away from UCLA when the Angels signed him in the 2nd round in 2008.
• Despite being only 21 years old, some folks in the Angels organization compare him to Roy Oswalt (Oswalt was still in A ball at that age).

He came into the year ranked the #2-4 prospect in the Angels system, and he pitched only 1 inning in AAA this year (6 last year). He's 3-4 in 13 starts (75 innings), with a 4.20 ERA and 1.55 WHIP. He's not missing many bats (5% swing and miss rate) and it shows in his pedestrian 4.7 K/9. And the command issues which were highlighted above are clearly evident, as his BB/9 rate is 4.5. He's had 5 games this year that he's allowed 4+ runs, including his last 2 starts. He throws 1st pitch fastball 73% of the time, which is the same % of fastball's he throws in any count. His curveball accounts for 18%, with him throwing only a handful of change-ups a game.

Some people project him to be a front-line starter if he can harness his stuff/improve his command, but others think his mainly 2-pitch arsenal profiles better as a bullpen arm.

Put It In the Books

I got another prediction wrong, but I don't care. Pelfrey threw a complete game and dominated, but I'm still saddened by the loss of the 'Big Man' Clarence Clemons, who passed away after complications following a serious stroke earlier in the week. Our prayers go out to his friends and family; you will be missed by millions.

Carousel Show, Asbury Park, NJ. December 7, 2010

Mets vs Angels Sat Night

Here is another Saturday night game...and the Mets face Dan Haren:

Reyes
Turner
Beltran
Murphy
Pagan
Bay
Duda
Paulino
Pelfrey

My Prediction: Mets only muster 2 runs, and lose 4-2.

Scouting Report Dan Haren

The 30-year old Haren (turns 30 in September), was drafted in the 2nd round out of Pepperdine in 2001, made his debut with the Cardinals in 2003, and was traded to the A's in 2004 for Mark Mulder. The Three-time all-star (2007-2009), was then traded to Arizona for Brett Anderson, Carlos Gonzalez, and top-prospect Chris Carter among others. I think that Billy Beane wound up winning that trade, as the Diamondbacks haven't made the post-season since acquiring Haren. Last July I had said that Haren was available for the right price, but apparently the Diamondbacks didn't realize what they could've gotten; instead they wound up with a back-end of the rotation starter (Joe Saunders), minor leaguers (P Corbin, R Rodridguez, and T Skaggs). Haren is extremely durable (hasn't missed a start in 4+ years), and has made 33+ starts and 216+ innings with an ERA under 4 in 5 of the 6 years.  In his career, he's 1-0 in six games (five starts), with a 3.89 ERA, and 1.03 WHIP. Last year he faced the Mets and got a no-decision (6 innings, 3 runs on 6 hits, 2 walks, 8 k's; he did let up 2 home runs to Pagan and Barajas).

Haren knows how to pitch and isn't afraid to throw any pitch in any count. He hasn't look at video or scouting report of opposing hitters for years, and wants the hitters to have to adjust to him. He has a deliberate delivery and throws from a high 3/4s arm slot with a riding 88-91 mph fastball, a sharp cutter (85 mph, 43% of his pitches), a curve (78 mph) and a late-diving split (85 mph). He uses his split as his strike out pitch in 0-2 and 1-2 counts. His best pitch this year has been by far his cutter, with his split and cutter the best pitches over his career. This year he's getting an outstanding 35% of swings at balls out of the strike zone, and 10% swing and miss rate. Throws 1st pitch strike 64% of the time, so be ready to swing. He's striking out close to 8 K/9, and walks < 1.5 W/9, which is outstanding.

This year Haren is 6-4 with a 2.54 ERA and 0.93 WHIP, which speak for itself.

He's a front-line starter, who is owed $12.75 million in 2011-2012, with a $15.5 million option ($3.5 million buyout) in 2013.

Another Tough Loss

Mets had chances to win last night, and had 1st and 2nd with 0 out in the 9th, but the Angels closer realized he had a slider that was unhittable, and the Mets went down feebly, losing 4-3.

They face Angels ace Dan Haren today.

Mets vs Angels

Here is the lineup that will face veteran RHP J Pineiro:

Reyes
Turner
Beltran
Murphy
Pagan
Bay
Paulino
Tejada
Capuano

My prediction: Mets erase the bad taste left by the " walk off balk off"  and win 6-3, allowing Mets fans to go home happy.

Let's go Mets!

Scouting Report Joel Pineiro

The 32-year old RHP is in his 12th major league season, spending most of his career in Seattle, before signing with the Red Sox in 2007; he didn't succeed in the AL East and he was dumped to the Cardinals, where Dave Duncan worked his sinker ball magic, and revitalized his career. He was signed before the 2010 season to a 2-year, 16 million dollar deal. He's searching for his 100th career win (99-89), and has a 4.33 ERA and 1.34 WHIP for his career. Sounds like a #4 or #5 starter, but he's had multiple DL stints with Shouilder tightness, and has thrown 200 innings only twice in his career, and once since 2004.

Pineiro is a 4-pitch pitcher, but he is known for his sinker. His sinker's velocity has continued to drop, and now averages 87.6 mph (down from 91 in 2007), and he throws it 64% of the time. His slider is his most effective pitch this year, throws it 16% of the time, 84 mph. His change has been good in the past, but he rarely throws it (83 mph), and it acts like a splitter. His curve averages 77 mph (11%). He increases his use of his slider with 2 strikes. He throws 1st pitch strike 57% of the time, but he heavily relies on his defense since he rarely gets swings and misses (5%). Since he can't get swings and misses, it's no surprise that he has one of the lowest K/9 rates in the majors this year (3.7%). He does minimize walks, 2.2 BB/9, but it's tough to succeed with not being able to miss bats like he does.

For the year, he's 2-3 in 9 starts (58 innings), with a 4.03 ERA and 1.43 WHIP, and is winless in his last 6 starts. He's been very consistent this year, and has allowed 4 earned runs in each of his past 5 games.

In his career against the Mets, he's 3-0 (6 starts), but he didn't face the Mets last year.