Here is the line-up that will face RHP James McDonald:
Pagan
Turner
Beltran
Bay
Murphy (3B)
Evans (1B)
Thole
Tejada
Dickey
My Prediction: Mets win 5-4, as Dickey struggles to throw 5 innings.
LET'S GO METS
Tuesday, May 31, 2011
And I'm Back!
I hope everyone had a great Memorial Day Weekend, as I certainly did. The little time away from the blog was spent with friends and family, and it was much needed. What has happened in the mean-time?
The Mets sit at 25-28, 8 1/2 games back from the Phillies, and in 4th place in the NL East. Ike Davis is flying back to NY because his ankle isn't responding how they would like, and D Wright has not yet begun baseball activities as far as I know (original plan was to rest for 10 days, it's now been 14 days). Justin Turner has been a pleasant surprise, but is anyone else sick of having Willie Harris play the infield? And with J Reyes on the Bereavement list (eligible to return on Thursday), no one could've imagined that on any May night, our infield would be D Murphy, W Harris, J Turner and R Tejada.
Other things to keep an eye on: MLB Draft is next week, with the Mets being linked to the UNC SS, or an OF from UCONN. Every one will be watching to see if they are taking chances with guys going overslot/taking the best player available.
What are your thoughts about the current state of the Mets? Are you ready to trade Beltran, K-Rod, Reyes and/or Wright now, or wait another 4-6 weeks to see if we can crawl above .500 and make a wild card run?
LET'S GO METS!
The Mets sit at 25-28, 8 1/2 games back from the Phillies, and in 4th place in the NL East. Ike Davis is flying back to NY because his ankle isn't responding how they would like, and D Wright has not yet begun baseball activities as far as I know (original plan was to rest for 10 days, it's now been 14 days). Justin Turner has been a pleasant surprise, but is anyone else sick of having Willie Harris play the infield? And with J Reyes on the Bereavement list (eligible to return on Thursday), no one could've imagined that on any May night, our infield would be D Murphy, W Harris, J Turner and R Tejada.
Other things to keep an eye on: MLB Draft is next week, with the Mets being linked to the UNC SS, or an OF from UCONN. Every one will be watching to see if they are taking chances with guys going overslot/taking the best player available.
What are your thoughts about the current state of the Mets? Are you ready to trade Beltran, K-Rod, Reyes and/or Wright now, or wait another 4-6 weeks to see if we can crawl above .500 and make a wild card run?
LET'S GO METS!
Scouting Report James McDonald
The 26-year old Righty was traded to the Pirates from the Dodgers at the deadline last year, and started 11 games down the stretch for the Pirates, showing some promise, and leaving people scratching their head on why the Dodgers traded him. He's 12-14 in his brief major league career (194 innings, 74 games, 26 starts), with a 4.22 ERA and 1.44 WHIP.
McDonald is a 3-pitch pitcher, with a fastball that tops out at 96 (92 mph average), a 12-6 curve (76 mph), and a change (81 mph). He uses his curve if he's ahead in the count with 2 strikes, and if he gets to 3-2, he's thrown his fastball 98% of the time this year. He throws 1st pitch fastball 79% of the time. He's a fly-ball pitcher, and he has already let up 9 home runs (53 innings). His K/9 is average (7.6 K/9) and he's walking too many hitters (4 BB/9).
This year he's 3-3 (10 starts, 53 1/3 innings), 5.23 ERA, and 1.50 WHIP. He's had 4 games this year he's let up 5+ runs, and hasn't let up more than 2 runs in the other 6 games. He has not thrown 7 innings once this year, and has only thrown 100+ pitches twice.
He's faced the Mets 6 times (2 starts, both in 2010), and has a 4.41 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. Both of those starts game in August and September; in August he struggled, allowing 5 runs in 5 innings (including a D Wright HR), while walking 5, but his September start at Citi Field was a different story. He threw 8 scoreless innings, 5 hits, 2 walks, but got the no-decision as the Mets scored the lone run of the game in the 10th inning.
McDonald is a 3-pitch pitcher, with a fastball that tops out at 96 (92 mph average), a 12-6 curve (76 mph), and a change (81 mph). He uses his curve if he's ahead in the count with 2 strikes, and if he gets to 3-2, he's thrown his fastball 98% of the time this year. He throws 1st pitch fastball 79% of the time. He's a fly-ball pitcher, and he has already let up 9 home runs (53 innings). His K/9 is average (7.6 K/9) and he's walking too many hitters (4 BB/9).
This year he's 3-3 (10 starts, 53 1/3 innings), 5.23 ERA, and 1.50 WHIP. He's had 4 games this year he's let up 5+ runs, and hasn't let up more than 2 runs in the other 6 games. He has not thrown 7 innings once this year, and has only thrown 100+ pitches twice.
He's faced the Mets 6 times (2 starts, both in 2010), and has a 4.41 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. Both of those starts game in August and September; in August he struggled, allowing 5 runs in 5 innings (including a D Wright HR), while walking 5, but his September start at Citi Field was a different story. He threw 8 scoreless innings, 5 hits, 2 walks, but got the no-decision as the Mets scored the lone run of the game in the 10th inning.
Friday, May 27, 2011
Happy Memorial Day Weekend
Sorry for no scouting reports yesterday or today, and I can't guarantee anything for the rest of the weekend versus the Phillies, as I'm out enjoying Memorial Day Weekend with friends and family.
For those who have served in the armed forces, I sincerely thank you for your brave service, and making this the great country that it is.
(My brief prediction which isn't based on much, Mets lose 2 of 3).
Enjoy the games everyone!
For those who have served in the armed forces, I sincerely thank you for your brave service, and making this the great country that it is.
(My brief prediction which isn't based on much, Mets lose 2 of 3).
Enjoy the games everyone!
Thursday, May 26, 2011
Another Mets loss
I know I haven't been doing post game recaps, but since a loyal reader sent this along, i had to post it.
Thanks TC.
Mets @ cubs
Big Carlos Zambrano Goes for the Cubs today vs Dickey.
My prediction: Mets win 3-2. LET'S GO METS!
Wednesday, May 25, 2011
Mets Will Win Tonight Lineup
Here is the lineup that will score plenty of runs off of C Coleman:
Reyes
Thole
Beltran
Bay
Murphy
Turner
Pridie
Tejada
Gee
Someone explain to me how Thole wasn't good enough to hit a RHP last night, yet is good enough to hit #2 tonight?
My prediction: Thole hitting 2nd won't matter, as the Mets some how score early and often, and win in a laughter, 8-2.
LET'S GO METS!
Scouting Casey Coleman
23 year old RHP Casey Coleman comes from a great pitching family (both his grandfather and father were major leaguers), and he made his major league debut last August. He's appeared in 19 games (15 starts), and is 6-5 with a 4.83 ERA and 1.60 WHIP. He has never faced the Mets in his brief career.
This year he's 2-3, with a 6.5 K/9 rate, and 6.5 BB/9 Rate. THAT'S HARD TO DO. Because of the high walk rate, his WHIP is 1.89 and his ERA is 6.03. His swing and miss % is 5.7%, and he only throws 1st pitch strike 47%.
Coleman's stuff = not all that exciting. 88-92 fastball, good changeup, workable slider/cutter and curveball. His two best pitches are his curve and change up, and he throws them both > 16% of his pitch (each), with his fastball being thrown > 60%.
His ceiling is a fifth starter or long reliever.
This year he's 2-3, with a 6.5 K/9 rate, and 6.5 BB/9 Rate. THAT'S HARD TO DO. Because of the high walk rate, his WHIP is 1.89 and his ERA is 6.03. His swing and miss % is 5.7%, and he only throws 1st pitch strike 47%.
Coleman's stuff = not all that exciting. 88-92 fastball, good changeup, workable slider/cutter and curveball. His two best pitches are his curve and change up, and he throws them both > 16% of his pitch (each), with his fastball being thrown > 60%.
His ceiling is a fifth starter or long reliever.
Tuesday, May 24, 2011
Mets @ Cubs
Here is the line-up that will face Ryan Dempster:
Reyes
Murphy
Beltran
Bay
Turner
Harris (CF)
Paulino
Tejada
Niese
My Prediction: I was told by a little birdy he thinks the Mets are going to win 5-2, but I'm going against the Birdie and say the Mets lose 3-2.
P.S. Some may wonder why I haven't discussed the New Yorker article/the new SI article. 1) The Real world is getting in the way. 2) It's been assumed the Mets payroll would be around 100 million next season. So why the panic now?
Let's Go Mets
Reyes
Murphy
Beltran
Bay
Turner
Harris (CF)
Paulino
Tejada
Niese
My Prediction: I was told by a little birdy he thinks the Mets are going to win 5-2, but I'm going against the Birdie and say the Mets lose 3-2.
P.S. Some may wonder why I haven't discussed the New Yorker article/the new SI article. 1) The Real world is getting in the way. 2) It's been assumed the Mets payroll would be around 100 million next season. So why the panic now?
Let's Go Mets
Scouting report Ryan Dempster
A terse look at his numbers for the year (6.91 era, 1.57 whip), and you think this should be an easy night for the Mets. But it is much based on a whole lot of bad luck.
Dempster is in his 14th major league season, and has thrown 200+ innings each of the past 3 years. He has a 4 & 2 seam fastball (90 mph, 54%), a plus slider (85 mph, 34%), and a split finger (82 mph, 12%). He's a groundball pitcher, but he's been victimized by the long ball this year (20.4% of his fly balls have been Home runs; league and career average is 11%). He's still striking out a respectable number(8.3), and limiting walks (3.3), but his bapip is .333, and lob % is 61.7 ( career is 71.6%), which should regress back to the norm. His FIP is 4.83, so he should be better than his current ERA stands.
Sunday, May 22, 2011
Mets at Yankees Sunday Afternoon
Here's the lineup that will face 24 year Ivan Nova:
Reyes
Murphy
Beltran
Bay
Martinez
Turner
Harris
Paulino
Pridie
Pelfry
My prediction: Mets win the series and back to 500 and win today by a score of 6-4
LETS GO METS!!
Scouting Ivan Nova
The 24-year old righty was signed out of the Dominican Republic, and briefly left for the Padres organization when they selected him in the rule 5 draft in 2009; he pitched poorly in spring training and was returned to the Yankees. He added some velocity last year, and was called up to the Yankees and pitched decent in 42 innings (4.50 ERA, 1.48 WHIP).
Nova used to throw 90-91 mph, but he's added velocity and now is 92-94, but can touch 97. He has a high effort delivery which is very deceptive the first time through the order, but hitters adjust the 2nd time around. He also throws a curve and a change-up, but neither pitch is average at this point.
So far this year he's made 8 starts, and is 4-3 with a 4.33 ERA, and 1.51 WHIP. His K/9 is way to low to survive in the majors, let alone the AL East, 4.95, and his BB/9 is too high as well, > 4.
His ceiling is a back of a rotation starter, and many think he may wind up in the bullpen for shorter outings.
Nova used to throw 90-91 mph, but he's added velocity and now is 92-94, but can touch 97. He has a high effort delivery which is very deceptive the first time through the order, but hitters adjust the 2nd time around. He also throws a curve and a change-up, but neither pitch is average at this point.
So far this year he's made 8 starts, and is 4-3 with a 4.33 ERA, and 1.51 WHIP. His K/9 is way to low to survive in the majors, let alone the AL East, 4.95, and his BB/9 is too high as well, > 4.
His ceiling is a back of a rotation starter, and many think he may wind up in the bullpen for shorter outings.
Saturday, May 21, 2011
Mets at Yankees Saturday night
Same line up as yesterday.
My prediction: Mets Win 4-2!
LETS GO METS!
Scouting Report A.J. Burnett
Can you believe A.J. Burnett is 34, and is in his 13th season as a major leaguer. That surprised me, because you would think he would be a little more consistent than the maddeningly inconsistent that is A.J. Burnett. 114-103 career record, with a 3.99 ERA and 1.32 WHIP, 8.2 K/9 rate, and 3.7 BB/9 rate; does that sound like someone who is in his 3rd year of a 5 year, 82 million dollar deal? There were people calling for the Yankees to completely cut ties with Burnett after last year's disaster down the stretch, when his ERA down the stretch was 6.61. And that's way too much money to just eat, so he's back for another year; plus, who else do the Yankees have to replace him?
A.J. Burnett's stuff can be filthy, so filthy in fact, that he needs the American League in wild pitches. If you had asked baseball scouts who has the best "stuff" in baseball, Burnett would definitely get votes, and probably be in the top 5. His fastball used to sit in mid-90s, but his fastball velocity is down to 92.4 (was 94 average in 2009), an 82 mph curve (30% of his pitches), and an 88 mph change-up (not a big enough differential between his fastball, maybe a classification error). His curve-ball is by far his best pitch.
This year Burnett is the same pitcher as he was last year; he's 4-3 (9 starts, 56 1/3 innings), with a 3.99 ERA, and a 1.17 WHIP (due to a very low BAPIP of .235). His K/9 rate, 6.71 is the lowest since 2001, and his BB/9 rate is 3. He's let up 25 HR in each of the past 2 years, and he's let up 9 already, so he is still prone to break down and have a big inning.
Burnett didn't face the Mets last year, and has thrown over 110 innings against them in his career, but 98 innings came before 2005, so I'm not even going to bother posting his stats against the Mets.
It's amazing that he's making 16 million dollars a year, and has never made an all-star team; although his name elicits expectations that he could throw a no-hitter, he really is just an average pitcher at this point.
A.J. Burnett's stuff can be filthy, so filthy in fact, that he needs the American League in wild pitches. If you had asked baseball scouts who has the best "stuff" in baseball, Burnett would definitely get votes, and probably be in the top 5. His fastball used to sit in mid-90s, but his fastball velocity is down to 92.4 (was 94 average in 2009), an 82 mph curve (30% of his pitches), and an 88 mph change-up (not a big enough differential between his fastball, maybe a classification error). His curve-ball is by far his best pitch.
This year Burnett is the same pitcher as he was last year; he's 4-3 (9 starts, 56 1/3 innings), with a 3.99 ERA, and a 1.17 WHIP (due to a very low BAPIP of .235). His K/9 rate, 6.71 is the lowest since 2001, and his BB/9 rate is 3. He's let up 25 HR in each of the past 2 years, and he's let up 9 already, so he is still prone to break down and have a big inning.
Burnett didn't face the Mets last year, and has thrown over 110 innings against them in his career, but 98 innings came before 2005, so I'm not even going to bother posting his stats against the Mets.
It's amazing that he's making 16 million dollars a year, and has never made an all-star team; although his name elicits expectations that he could throw a no-hitter, he really is just an average pitcher at this point.
Friday, May 20, 2011
Mets (20-21) @ Yankees (23-19)
Here is the line-up that will face "The Chief" Freddy Garcia tonight, in the 1st of 6 subway series games this year:
Reyes
Murphy
Beltran
Bay
Martinez (DH)
Turner
Thole
Pridie
Tejada
Dickey P
My Prediction: The Mets are trying to get back to the .500 mark, and I think it will be a race to 5 runs. I'm on the Mets band-wagon tonight, as they win a close one, 5-4. Let's hope that Tejada doesn't try to pull a Luis Castillo...
LET'S GO METS!
Reyes
Murphy
Beltran
Bay
Martinez (DH)
Turner
Thole
Pridie
Tejada
Dickey P
My Prediction: The Mets are trying to get back to the .500 mark, and I think it will be a race to 5 runs. I'm on the Mets band-wagon tonight, as they win a close one, 5-4. Let's hope that Tejada doesn't try to pull a Luis Castillo...
LET'S GO METS!
Scouting Report Freddy Garcia
Freddy is in his 13th big league career (turns 35 next month), and has turned into a "crafty righty", or a serviceable back-of-the-rotation pitcher. He made 2 All-Star teams back in the 2001 and 2002 with the Mariners. His career record is 135-90, with a 4.11 ERA and 1.30 WHIP, but he hasn't posted a sub-4 ERA since 2005 with the White Sox, when he was throwing 91-92 mph. He's a fly-ball pitcher who got victimized by U.S. Cellular Field last year, and it is possible that the same thing will/is happening this year at the New Yankee Stadium (when will people stop saying New?)
Garcia has seen his velocity steadily drop over his career due to shoulder issues (rotator cuff and labral repair in 2007), and his average velocity is now 87 mph (93 mph in 2002). He realizes that's not going to be very successful in the big leagues, so he only throws it 36% of the time, and relies heavily on his 81 mph slider (26%), and his split-finger (20%, 79 mph). He also throws a curve (72 mph), and a change-up (80 mph), to keep hitters guessing and giving them different looks. So far this year, his curve, split and slider have been above average pitches for him.
So far this year, he's 2-3 in 6 starts (1 relief appearance; 36 1/3 innings), and has posted a 3.22 ERA (4.71 FIP), 1.35 WHIP, with an average K/9 (7.4), and below average BB/9 (3.7, but that was mainly due to one game he walked 5 batters). His ERA is so low due to a high strand rate (86.5%, 73% for his career), and a low BAPIP (.269, .282 for his career). He has been prone to the long-ball, allowing 6 home runs, and they've all come in the last 4 games (23 1/3 innings).
He's faced the Mets twice in his career, once in 2003, and once in 2007; if anyone bothers to try to gain any information from these stats, you are wasting your time.
Freddy Garcia would've been a typical Omar Minaya "scrap-metal" pick-up, but he is a lot better on the Yankees as their offense can cover up for some of his mistakes.
Garcia has seen his velocity steadily drop over his career due to shoulder issues (rotator cuff and labral repair in 2007), and his average velocity is now 87 mph (93 mph in 2002). He realizes that's not going to be very successful in the big leagues, so he only throws it 36% of the time, and relies heavily on his 81 mph slider (26%), and his split-finger (20%, 79 mph). He also throws a curve (72 mph), and a change-up (80 mph), to keep hitters guessing and giving them different looks. So far this year, his curve, split and slider have been above average pitches for him.
So far this year, he's 2-3 in 6 starts (1 relief appearance; 36 1/3 innings), and has posted a 3.22 ERA (4.71 FIP), 1.35 WHIP, with an average K/9 (7.4), and below average BB/9 (3.7, but that was mainly due to one game he walked 5 batters). His ERA is so low due to a high strand rate (86.5%, 73% for his career), and a low BAPIP (.269, .282 for his career). He has been prone to the long-ball, allowing 6 home runs, and they've all come in the last 4 games (23 1/3 innings).
He's faced the Mets twice in his career, once in 2003, and once in 2007; if anyone bothers to try to gain any information from these stats, you are wasting your time.
Freddy Garcia would've been a typical Omar Minaya "scrap-metal" pick-up, but he is a lot better on the Yankees as their offense can cover up for some of his mistakes.
Thursday, May 19, 2011
Here is this afternoon's lineup
Livan Hernandez will not throw 40% of his pitches in the strike zone to this lineup
Reyes
Thole
Beltran
Bay
Murphy
Turner
Pridie
Tejada
Gee
My prediction: Mets solve Livan, getting 8+ hits, and Mets sweep the 2 game series, winning 6-4.
LETS GO METS!!
Scouting Livan Hernandez Again
Livan faced the Mets on April 28th, so here's his scouting report, with updated stats. He's 3-5 (9 starts, 57 1/3 innings), 3.92 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, a terrible K/9 (4.55), and average BB/9 (2.8). He threw 8 innings against the Mets and got the win (8 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 1 W, 5 K), but since then has lost 3 straight games, allowing 24 hits in 18 innings.
Livan Hernandez
36 years old (seems like he should be 40)
16th major league season
6'2" 245 pounds
Bats R/Throws R
I widely assume that every single baseball fan knows 36-year old Livan Hernandez, and everyone knows he throws slow, slower and slowest as his pitches these days. I'm not going to highlight his career stats or anything, as he has changed as a pitcher over the past 16 years and the data from his early starts against the Mets are meaningless. His career ERA is 4.38 and last year (3.66) it was under 4.0 since 2005; his WHIP was below 1.5 for the first time since 2005 as well (1.32).
Looking at his pitch data, the only thing he has changed is that he is throwing a few more sliders now than in the past (20% vs 17%) and increased his curveball to 14% this year from 6% in 2009. His fastball averages about 84 mph, change-up 77 mph, slider 77 mph and curve-ball (eephus) 66 mph. Last year his two best pitches were his fastball (?!) and his curve ball.
He only throws strikes 39% of the time, and has a poor swing and miss rate (6%). What makes Livan successful is hitters swing and make contact at 77% of the pitches that he throws outside of the strike zone (league average is 66%), which results in a lot of weak ground balls etc.
This will be his 39th career start versus the Mets. That's a whole lot of starts. He started versus the Mets 5 times in 2010, and had a shiny 1.89 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. Hopefully the Mets are a more disciplined hitting team this year versus last.
Livan Hernandez
36 years old (seems like he should be 40)
16th major league season
6'2" 245 pounds
Bats R/Throws R
I widely assume that every single baseball fan knows 36-year old Livan Hernandez, and everyone knows he throws slow, slower and slowest as his pitches these days. I'm not going to highlight his career stats or anything, as he has changed as a pitcher over the past 16 years and the data from his early starts against the Mets are meaningless. His career ERA is 4.38 and last year (3.66) it was under 4.0 since 2005; his WHIP was below 1.5 for the first time since 2005 as well (1.32).
Looking at his pitch data, the only thing he has changed is that he is throwing a few more sliders now than in the past (20% vs 17%) and increased his curveball to 14% this year from 6% in 2009. His fastball averages about 84 mph, change-up 77 mph, slider 77 mph and curve-ball (eephus) 66 mph. Last year his two best pitches were his fastball (?!) and his curve ball.
He only throws strikes 39% of the time, and has a poor swing and miss rate (6%). What makes Livan successful is hitters swing and make contact at 77% of the pitches that he throws outside of the strike zone (league average is 66%), which results in a lot of weak ground balls etc.
This will be his 39th career start versus the Mets. That's a whole lot of starts. He started versus the Mets 5 times in 2010, and had a shiny 1.89 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. Hopefully the Mets are a more disciplined hitting team this year versus last.
Wednesday, May 18, 2011
Will the Mets play tonight?
This is the lineup that will face Gorzelanny tonight or tomorrow
Reyes
Turner (3B)
Beltran
Bay
Murphy ( even vs a lhp?)
Paulino
Hairston
Tejada
Niese
My prediction: Mets will beat Gorzelanny if/ when they face him, 4-1, behind a strong outing for Niese
3rd time Facing Tom Gorzelanny
Instead of facing J Zimmermann, the Nationals skipped him to keep his innings under control; THANK YOU.
Here is the scouting report on Gorzelanny again. He's 2-2 (7 starts, 42 innings) this year, 3.40 ERA (4.93 FIP), and a ridiculous .189 BAPIP which will regress over the course of the year, and helps him have a 1.02 WHIP. He has his walk rate under 3.0 currently in the small sample size, which is the lowest in his craeer. He's 0-1 in his 2 starts against the Mets this year (11 2/3 innings), and threw a quality game last time on April 27th (6 1/3, 1 run, 5 hits, only 1 walk). On April 9th, He faced the Mets and took the loss, going 5 1/3 innings, allowing 5 runs (2 home runs to Beltran) on 4 hits, and 2 walks, while striking out 8.
Tom Gorzelanny
28 years old
7th major league season
6'2" 207 pounds
Bats L/Throws L
The former Pirates prospect was traded to the Cubs mid-season 2009, and was traded this January for a trio of prospects after the Cubs acquired Matt Garza. He has been wildly inconsistent during his major league career, starting 95 games, (36-37 career record), with a 4.68 ERA and 1.49 WHIP. His best year was in 2007 when he had a 3.88 ERA and won 14 games, but the Pirates made it throw 30+ meaningless innings in September, and he hasn't been the same since (highlighted by a higher BB/9 rate than his K/9 rate in 2008). Last year for the Cubs he threw 136 innings (29 games, 23 starts), with a 4.09 ERA and 1.51 WHIP, due to his high BB/9 rate of 4.5. He can be a useful arm in the back-end of a rotation.
He has a herky-jerky delivery (turns his back to the hitters to create deception), and throws from a high 3/4s arm slot. He throws 88-92 (velocity dropped from 91 to 2009 to 89.8 to 2010), an average change-up that runs down and away from righties (83 mph), and decent slider (usage jumped to 22% last year) and an occasional curveball. He's a fly ball pitcher who has swing and miss stuff (9 K/9 in 2009), but also has inconsistent command and has struggled with walks previously (6 W/9 in 2008). He struck out 10.4/9 versus lefties last year, so expect to see the line-up loaded up with righties.
He's pitched against the Mets 11 times, including 7 starts, and is 2-4 with a 5.70 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. He started once last year against the Mets in April with the Cubs, and threw 5 2/3 innings, allowing 2 runs on 4 hits and 2 walks, while striking out 7, but took the loss.
Here is the scouting report on Gorzelanny again. He's 2-2 (7 starts, 42 innings) this year, 3.40 ERA (4.93 FIP), and a ridiculous .189 BAPIP which will regress over the course of the year, and helps him have a 1.02 WHIP. He has his walk rate under 3.0 currently in the small sample size, which is the lowest in his craeer. He's 0-1 in his 2 starts against the Mets this year (11 2/3 innings), and threw a quality game last time on April 27th (6 1/3, 1 run, 5 hits, only 1 walk). On April 9th, He faced the Mets and took the loss, going 5 1/3 innings, allowing 5 runs (2 home runs to Beltran) on 4 hits, and 2 walks, while striking out 8.
Tom Gorzelanny
28 years old
7th major league season
6'2" 207 pounds
Bats L/Throws L
The former Pirates prospect was traded to the Cubs mid-season 2009, and was traded this January for a trio of prospects after the Cubs acquired Matt Garza. He has been wildly inconsistent during his major league career, starting 95 games, (36-37 career record), with a 4.68 ERA and 1.49 WHIP. His best year was in 2007 when he had a 3.88 ERA and won 14 games, but the Pirates made it throw 30+ meaningless innings in September, and he hasn't been the same since (highlighted by a higher BB/9 rate than his K/9 rate in 2008). Last year for the Cubs he threw 136 innings (29 games, 23 starts), with a 4.09 ERA and 1.51 WHIP, due to his high BB/9 rate of 4.5. He can be a useful arm in the back-end of a rotation.
He has a herky-jerky delivery (turns his back to the hitters to create deception), and throws from a high 3/4s arm slot. He throws 88-92 (velocity dropped from 91 to 2009 to 89.8 to 2010), an average change-up that runs down and away from righties (83 mph), and decent slider (usage jumped to 22% last year) and an occasional curveball. He's a fly ball pitcher who has swing and miss stuff (9 K/9 in 2009), but also has inconsistent command and has struggled with walks previously (6 W/9 in 2008). He struck out 10.4/9 versus lefties last year, so expect to see the line-up loaded up with righties.
He's pitched against the Mets 11 times, including 7 starts, and is 2-4 with a 5.70 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. He started once last year against the Mets in April with the Cubs, and threw 5 2/3 innings, allowing 2 runs on 4 hits and 2 walks, while striking out 7, but took the loss.
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