Game 110: Mets @ Phillies

The Mets face Cole Hamels tonight, and although people don't think he's as good as he was in 2008, I disagree and I still view him as an ace/solid #2.

For the Line-ups, check out Citislickers.com


My Prediction: Without seeing the line-ups, I can't see the Mets anemic offense scoring more than 2 runs against Hamels, so Johan needs to throw a gem. What the heck, I'm not giving up hope just yet. Mets win a dramatic game, 3-2.

I still believe (semi), do you?

LET'S GO METS!

Tejada and F-Mart Scratched Last Night

Rumors swirling, including a potential deal with the Mariners with F-Mart going to Seattle in a package including C Figgins. More here at Mets Today

Other people are saying Red Sox may be trying to acquire Cora and/or Frenchy, and that Tejada and F-Mart were about to be promoted.

Time will tell, but I hope the Mets aren't trading two young pieces for someone who was a free agent this off-season and I had no interest in acquiring, and has been a bust this year.


I won't be able to comment on any trades until tonight. Enjoy the beautiful Saturday

Scouting Report Cole Hamels

The Mets faced Cole back on May 27th and took the loss, going 6 1/3, allowing 9 hits, 3 runs (2 earned), while striking out only 3. As noted below, he has not fared well in his career starts against the Mets.

Here is the scouting report from May 27th, and his updated stats/trends at the end.

The 26-year old Hamels went from a future ace after his stellar post-season in 2008 to a failure in the eyes of Phillies fans after 2009. So which pitcher is Cole? Most likely some where in between, but closer to the future ace. He was drafted in the 1st round of the 2002 draft and made his major league debut in 2006. He had some durability/character issues in the minors (elbow pain, back discomfort, broken arm in a possible fight in high school, and broke a bone in his hand in a bar room fight), but he has a career 53-36 record in the big leagues, with a 3.68 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Last year he was highly unlucky (.325 BAPIP), while his strikeout and walk rates remained the same from 2008. In his nine career starts versus the Mets, he's struggled. He's 2-4 with a 4.12 and a 1.573 WHIP. Last year the Mets hit him hard in his first two starts at Citi Field (10 innings, 21 hits, 8 runs), but shut down the Mets in September at CBP (6 2/3 innings, 1 ER, 6 Ks).

Hamels has a smooth high 3/4s arm action and is a fly-ball pitcher. He throws his fastball 88-92 mph, and possesses one of the best change-ups in the game (81 mph). He occasionally throws a show me curve-ball, and has added a cutter this off-season, but it hasn't been effective yet this year, especially versus right handers, who are hammering it to a tone of .412/.429/.882. His strike out pitch is his change-up, but also has been getting strikeouts/swings and misses on fastballs out of the zone. He's averaging 9 K/9 this year (one of the best SP in baseball), but he's also seen his W/9 rise to 2.98 (highest in four years).

UPDATE August 7th: So far this year Hamels is 7-7 with a 3.56 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 22 starts (139 innings).In his last 5 starts (since July 11th), he has a 2.07 ERA. He's minimized the long ball since July, allowing only 3 in 48 2/3 (18 in previous 90 1/3). He has yet to allow a hit on his cutter to lefties, but he barely throws it. As noted above, his cutter gets pounded by righties.

Proverbial Nail in the Coffin?

Niese throws a gem, 7 innings, 1 earned run.
Parnell doesn't get an out, and the Mets bullpen allows 6 runs in the 8th inning.
M Hessman hits 3 run HR in the 9th, but for naught.

Another loss, 7-5

Mets are under .500 and you may want to start digging...

Game 109: Mets (54-54) @ Phillies (60-48)

The Phillies have won 4 in a row, 8 of their last 10, and are only 2 games behind the 1st place Braves. The Mets are 4-6 in their last 10 games, and are currently 8 games out of 1st.

As stated earlier, if the Mets have any chance to play "meaningful games" in September, they need to win and possibly sweep the series this weekend. That all starts tonight, as they face league-average pitcher Joe Blanton. Since the Mets face Hamels and Doctor Roy the next two games, this is another must win game, of which the Mets never win.

Anyway, here is the line-up for the Mets:

J Reyes SS
A Pagan LF
C Beltran CF
D Wright 3B
I Davis 1B
J Thole C
J Francoeur RF (He still can't hit righties, or practically anyone for that matter)
L Castillo 2B
J Niese P

My Prediction: Blanton is almost guaranteed to allow three + runs, so Niese needs to go 7 innings allowing 1 or 2 runs. I believe in him, and Mets win the first game of the series.

LET'S GO METS!

Huge Series Starting Tonight!!

Mets vs Phillies! I hope you guys are excited!! Can't wait to beat up on Utley, Howard and Victorino!!

Wait, none of them are playing?
Wait, the Mets are 8 games out of 1st place?

That stinks.

The Mets season is on life support, and the only way they can be saved is sweeping the Phillies. They have done it already this season, why not again??

Oh wait, they aren't a good baseball team and "THEY ARE WHO WE THOUGHT THEY WERE!"

Scouting Report Joe Blanton

The Mets faced Blanton on May 26th, so here is his scouting report again, with an update at the bottom. The Mets fared well against him in May, as he lasted only 5 1/3 innings, let up 5 runs, 10 base runners, while striking out only 2.

The 29-year old right-hander was a 1st round pick in 2002 out of University of Kentucky, and is in his 8th major league season; he spent five seasons with Oakland and is in his 3rd season with the Phillies. He's 64-56 for his career with a 4.23 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. He has been referred to as a "league-average/innings eater" in the past, but was very reliable for the Phillies last year; From May 26th, he threw 151 innings in 23 starts, and limited the opposition to a .304 OBP and a 3.16 ERA. He's in his final year of arbitration, and he's looking to build on the success he had last year to parley into a nice free agent contract. Coming into this year, He had made four starts in his career versus the Mets and is 2-0, with a 1.59 ERA and .953 WHIP. He faced the Mets once last year, and threw 7 1/3 shutout innings.

Blanton throws strikes and has a very compact delievery, releasing from a high 3/4s arm slot. He features a 88-91 mph fastball that he will throw to both sides of the plate, a slider (83 mph), as well as an occasional curve (76 mph) and change-up (81 mph). He has started to throw a few cutters per game. His two best pitches are his slider and change-up. Last year he saw an increase in swings out of the strike zone which increased his K/9 to 7.51, but this year it's back down to 6.1 (career average is 5.7). He's a fly-ball pitcher who has been prone to the long-ball the last two years. Last year his slider was his strikeout pitch, but this year he is relying more on his fastball, with poor results.

After missing some time earlier this year with an oblique injury, Blanton has made 17 starts (106 innings) and is 4-6, with a 5.86 ERA, and 1.47 WHIP. He's gone 6+ innings in 13 of his 17 starts, but has allowed at least three runs in all but one start. He's let up 17 home runs in 106 innings. In his last start versus the Nationals, he went 6 innings and allowed 4 runs, with 9 hits and 1 walk, while striking out a season high 8.

He is a league average-innings eater after all.

Don't Let the Door Hit you on the way out...

Pelfrey = terrible
4 errors = pathetic
= Another disgusting loss 8-3

There is nothing else to write. I can't waste my time and energy when the players are "flat".

7 1/2 games out. Day off tomorrow, then a three-game set in Philadelphia. Niese vs Blanton 7:35 PM Friday Night.

Game 108: Mets @ Braves

Here is the line-up that will face youngster Kris Medlen:

J Reyes SS
A Pagan LF
C Beltran CF
D Wright 3B
I Davis 1B
J Thole C
J Francoeur RF
L Castillo 2B
M Pelfrey P

My Prediction: The Mets need the old Pelf to show up tonight; I dont think he will dominate, but he gives the Mets a chance to win. I'm thinking 6 innings, 3-4 runs. I'm undecided on whether the Mets can get 4-5 runs, but I'm leaning towards no.

Hope I'm wrong. Let's Go Mets!

Scouting Report Kris Medlen

He faced the Mets on May 18th, so here is the scouting report, with an update on his current stats at the end.

The 24-year old Kris Medlen made his major league debut last year in May, after going 5-0 with a sub 1 ERA in AAA (he got the promotion before T Hanson). The converted college shortstop (drafted in the 10th round in 2006) worked exclusively out of the bullpen his first two years, but excelled in the Arizona Fall League and the Braves moved him to the starting rotation last year. He appeared in 37 games for the Braves last year, starting four games, and had a 4.26 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. He pitched versus the Mets three times in relief last year, throwing 5 1/3 shutout innings, allowing five hits and one walk, striking out five.

The 5'11" Medlen throws 90-94, but usually settles into 90-91 when he's starting. He features a plus change-up (81 mph), and also mixes in an average curve-ball (80 mph). His fastball and change-up have been very successful in the big leagues. His strikeout rates have been outstanding in the minors (10 K/9), and is 9.2 K/9 in the majors, while having decent walk rates (4.0 W/9 last year, but 1.2 W/9 this year). He has fly ball tendencies.

So far this year, he's made 13 relief appearances, and one start vs the Phillies. He's thrown 23 innings, allowed 25 hits and only three walks (outstanding) with 20 strike outs. His ERA is 2.35 and a 1.217 WHIP. Versus the Phillies he lasted 4 1/3 and allowed nine hits and one run, throwing 88 pitches.

UPDATE AUGUST 4th: He faced the Mets on May 18th and threw 6 1/3 innings,allowing only 2 runs (2 home runs by Ike and Frenchy) and 6 base-runners, while striking out 6. He made 9 starts after that, before returning to the bullpen around the all-star break to decrease his workload, including an inning appearance on July 11th vs the Mets, where he threw a scoreless inning, but allowed a hit and a walk. His last two starts he's thrown 11 innings, and let up 8 earned runs. He's currently 6-2 (103 innings, 13 starts, 17 relief appearances), 3.66 ERA, 1.20 WHIP. His K/9 rate is 7, and walking 1.74/9. He's let up 13 home runs already. He hasn't thrown 7 innings in a game since June 3rd, and hasn't thrown 100 pitches since June 25th.


Recap: The scouts are worried that his diminutive frame will not be able to withstand the stresses of being a starting pitcher full-time. He has the upside of a #3/4 starter. He throws 1st pitch fastball 74% of the time, and uses his plus change-up as his strike out pitch.

Holy Cow, Mets Win!

Jeff Francoeur hits a HUGE game-winning HR in the 9th inning off of Wagner, and Mets win 3-2.

Manny Acosta gets the win and he was amped, throwing 97 mph. K-Rod with the save, and Dickey was his normal 2010 Dickey.

Need to try to win the series tomorrow, Niese vs Medlen.

Game 107: Mets @ Braves

(View from Home Plate, 2006)

Here is the line-up that will face RHP Derek Lowe and hope that it prevents the Mets from falling below .500:

J Reyes SS
A Pagan LF
C Beltran CF
D Wright 3B
I Davis 1B
J Thole C
J Francoeur RF
L Castillo 2B
RA Dickey P

My prediction: Mets show signs of life, and Dickey is the "bearded ace." Mets win 5-1.

Scouting Report Derek Lowe

This is the 3rd time the Mets have faced Lowe this year, and I will just have an update at the end of the report.

The 37-year old RHP was a highly sought-after free agent last year, and wound up getting a four-year, $60 million contract. The Mets hesitated on giving an aging veteran such as Lowe a four-year contract, and if last year was an indication (which I do agree with), the Mets made the right decision. Although he went 15-10 in 34 starts last year, he gave up 232 hits in 194 innings and had a .301 batting average against. He had a 4.67 ERA and 1.52 WHIP, while also seeing his GB rate decrease to 66% (75% in 2007). For his career against the Mets, he has started eight times, and is 3-4 with a 7.01 ERA and a 1.74 WHIP. He started five of those games last year with the Braves, and had a 6.94 ERA and 1.67 WHIP, with 10 strikeouts in 23 1/3 innings. When he faced the Mets in May, he was on the short side on the decision, even though he threw seven innings, allowed three runs and only seven base-runners. On July 11th, he only lasted 5 1/3, once again taking the loss, allowing 8 hits and 2 walks, while allowing 2 runs and 4 k's.

The 6’6” Lowe throws from a ¾ to low ¾ arm slot, and features a sinking 87-88 mph and a late-breaking slider (80 mph). He throws his fastball 70% of the time, his slider 12% of the time (down from 26-31% previous two years), and he has increased the use of his change-up (84 mph) this year to 16% (previously was only a 'show-me pitch'). He rarely throws inside/backs hitters off the plate. He was never a strike out pitcher, but last year his rates decreased even further (5.1 K/9), and his walk rate increased from 1.9 W/9 to 2.9. As noted earlier, Lowe is a groundball pitcher but he started to leave the ball up in the zone more last year, and the hitters took advantage.

This year, he has made 18 starts (108 innings) and is 9-7, with a 4.40 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. His strikeout rate is the similar to last year (5.4 K/9), but has seen an increase in walks (3.5 W/9), the highest in his 14-year career, but he has been better lately. Since May 12th, he's made 11 starts, 70 1/3 innings, and has a 3.43 ERA (inflated by one terrible start Dbacks: four innings, seven earned runs), walking 23 and striking out 43.


UPDATE August 3rd: In his 3 starts since the All-Star break, he has thrown only 16 innings and allowed 3+ runs in each, and 25 base-runners and allowing 4 home runs. He hasn't thrown 6 innings since July 5th.

He's a league average pitcher on the decline; he is useful to the Braves (and would be for the Mets) but they wish he was making 6-8 million versus 15 million.

Another Day, Another Loss

Johan lets up 3 in the 1st, and the game was over. If Castillo turns a double play, it may have been a different outcome, but that's the way the ball bounces.

Mets lose 4-1, and the season may be slipping away. 7 1/2 games back.

Need to win the next two games. Don't jump off the bridge after one game. After all, we have our "bearded ace" on the mound tomorrow night. Dickey vs Lowe, 7:10

Game 106: Mets (53-52) @ Braves (59-45)

The Mets are 6 1/2 games behind the 1st place Atlanta Braves, and currently ties for 3rd with the Marlins. The next 6 days could decide the Mets fate over the next 8 weeks. This should be interesting. You can check out the Citislickers NL East preview, but this is it in a nutshell: Mets need to win this week for the rest of the season to matter. Simple, end of story.

Here is the line-up that will face All-star Tim Hudson:

J Reyes SS
A Pagan LF
C Beltran CF
D Wright 3B
I Davis 1B
J Francoeur RF
H Blanco C
L Castillo 2B
J Santana P

My Prediction: Mets need to score 3 runs in order to win this game. Can they do it? I certainly hope so. Mets win 3-2, and Johan helps the Mets to live to see another day.

Let's Go Mets

Scouting Report, Tim Hudson

The Mets faced Hudson on July 10th. Here was my write up then, and will just update his post-All Star break performance.

The 12-year major league veteran turns 35 on Wednesday, and is in the first year of a 3-year contract paying him 28 million dollars. He missed the majority of last year recovering from Tommy John Surgery, but made seven starts in September, going 2-1 with a 3.61 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. His career numbers are impressive, 156-82, with a 3.43 ERA and 1.25 WHIP, as well as being an All-star three times, including being selected for the game this year.  For his career, Hudson is 10-5 versus the Mets (16 starts, 105 innings), with a 3.77 ERA and 1.25 WHIP, and only 3.7 K/9. He faced the Mets last September and got the W, going six innings, allowed two runs on nine hits, while walking and striking out two.

Hudson is a six-pitch pitcher who works quickly and throws from the three quarters arm slot. He throws a hard sinking fastball 89-92 mph (averaging 91.2 mph, highest since 2004), a cutter 88 mph, a late-breaking slider (85 mph), a tight curve (76 mph), a show-me change early in the count (81 mph) and a splitter he uses for strikeouts (85 mph). Over his career his three best pitches have been his fastball, split and slider, but his split and slider have been below average this year (maybe the cause of his lack of strike outs). He throws first pitch fastball 72% of the time.

In 17 starts this year, Hudson is 8-4 with a 2.44 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. Those numbers are very deceiving, as he has been extremely lucky, with a trio of things working against him in the 2nd half. 1) His strike out rate has dropped to a pedestrian 4.57 K/9 (lowest in his career). 2) BAPIP is .234, completely unsustainable (career average is .286). 3) His strand rate is 84% (career average is 74%). Due to the combination of this three things, his FIP is 4.29; not as shiny as his 2.44 ERA. Hudson has continued to get a ton of ground balls due to his sinking fastball, but he's not getting swing and misses (6.8%, career is 9.3%) and throwing a career low 46% strikes. His last start versus Florida he was a tough luck loser, throwing eight innings, allowed only seven base-runners, but three runs, while striking out seven.


UPDATE August 2nd: He's had three starts since he faced the Mets on July 10 (7 shutout innings, 4 hits, 2 walks, 3 k's), and he's had two quality starts (14 2/3 innings, 1 earned run), while his first start after the break was awful (6 2/3, 6 earned runs). His ERA for the year is now 2.40, 1.16 WHIP, and K/9 is 4.67. His FIP and xFIP is 4.12 and 4.13. 

14 runs allowed..Seriously?

Another day, another Mets loss. A homestand that needed to be at least 4-2 or 5-1, ends right where the Mets belong: 3-3, or .500.

Could be a season-deciding road trip to division foes Atlanta and Philadelphia this week.

At least we didn't make any dumb trades this week.

Game 105: Mets vs Diamondbacks

Here is the line-up that will face Daniel Hudson:
Reyes, Feliciano, Pagan, Wright, Davis, Francoeur, Thole, Cora, Niese.
Prediction: Mets win 4-2. Lets go Mets

Happy Recap

Takahashi throws 6 solid innings, Wright with 3 RBIs, and Beltran wins it with a walk-off sac fly following J Feliciano's triple.

R Lopez was supposed to start tomorrow, but now I'm hearing D Hudson. If thats the case, there won't be a scouting report. He was just traded from the White Sox this week for Edwin Jackson.

Win the series tomorrow.

From a loyal fan in Delta Club. Let's go Mets!